Battery pack longevity

[EaglesPDX]

Miles to FAILURE is likely in the 100's of thousand miles range assuming no "infant mortality" where it fails in first year, happens but rare.

After that, EV batteries follow the same tech specs as all Li-ion batteries, there is a known, finite number for full charge/discharge cycles in the battery, about 600 (186,000 for a 310 miles rated Model 3).

batteryuniversity.com

The expected useful life of the EV batteries is about the same as expected useful life of gasoline engines so no rational reason to worry about battery life any more than one wondered about engine life.

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[DadBald]

Very interesting, thanks for the info. Ironically enough, my Honda Civic Hybrid died at EXACTLY 186,000 miles... though likely a coincidence since that was a NiMH pack, and non-plug in.

 

[diesel97]

Miles to FAILURE is likely in the 100's of thousand miles range assuming no "infant mortality" where it fails in first year, happens but rare.

After that, EV batteries follow the same tech specs as all Li-ion batteries, there is a known, finite number for full charge/discharge cycles in the battery, about 600 (186,000 for a 310 miles rated Model 3).

batteryuniversity.com

The expected useful life of the EV batteries is about the same as expected useful life of gasoline engines so no rational reason to worry about battery life any more than one wondered about engine life.

Gas engines don't degrade after 10 years like an EV though

 

[EaglesPDX]

Gas engines don't degrade after 10 years like an EV though

Gas engines degrade along similar timeline as EV batteries, average on both is 10 years.

Difference is the EV battery gets put into a forklift or used as backup for another 10-20 years while the engine gets ground up for scrap, shipped to China and comes back as parts.

 

[diesel97]

Gas engines degrade along similar timeline as EV batteries, average on both is 10 years.

Difference is the EV battery gets put into a forklift or used as backup for another 10-20 years while the engine gets ground up for scrap, shipped to China and comes back as parts.

Ten year old ICE car will still get 98% hp rating and will get 98% miles per tank like they were new. Can you say the same about EV?

 

[EaglesPDX]

Ten year old ICE car will still get 98% hp rating and will get 98% miles per tank like they were new. Can you say the same about EV?

Since average longevity of gas engine is 10 years, you can't say it about ICE's either.

While there is no absolute rule when it comes to how long engines will last, there are a few general figures that can give you a rough idea about what to expect from your car. For some time, the average lifespan of a car’s engine was eight years, or 150,000 miles. New designs, better technology and improved service standards in recent years have increased this average life expectancy to about 200,000 miles, or about 10 years.

 

[diesel97]

Since average longevity of gas engine is 10 years, you can't say it about ICE's either.

While there is no absolute rule when it comes to how long engines will last, there are a few general figures that can give you a rough idea about what to expect from your car. For some time, the average lifespan of a car’s engine was eight years, or 150,000 miles. New designs, better technology and improved service standards in recent years have increased this average life expectancy to about 200,000 miles, or about 10 years.

So a 10-year-old EV will be running at 98%?

 

[astricklin]

Ten year old ICE car will still get 98% hp rating and will get 98% miles per tank like they were new. Can you say the same about EV?

Any data to back up that figure or did you just make it up?

Tesla has released their data and they show that on average less then 20% loss over 150-200k miles.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/inside...a-model-s-x-battery-capacity-degradation/amp/

 

[diesel97]

Any data to back up that figure or did you just make it up?

Tesla has released their data and they show that on average less then 20% loss over 150-200k miles.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/inside...a-model-s-x-battery-capacity-degradation/amp/

Wait let me change the plugs, is that better.
I'm not the one that said a 10-year-old ICE and EV are equal, I know you didn't either but it was a outrages statement

 

[DadBald]

I'd assume after 10 years your power and torque will be the same in the Lighting, but just the capacity/range will be reduced (might be wrong on that). And yes I've seen that Tesla chart - looks to be about a 10-15% drop over 200,000 miles. I'd rather a 3rd party test or community reports to back that up though.

Frankly, I don't care if it's a 30% drop by that age. I just don't want it to brick itself. An expected minor inconvenience is a completely different issue than a $20,000+ bill to keep it on the road. 150,000mi is respectable life for a vehicle, especially if you've had it since new, but that's still daily-driver age for me. My current Subaru is at 165,000 and runs like the day I bought it. Longevity is something I expect, within reason of course. I'll be much more nervous about my Lightning at 165,000 miles than I am currently with my Subaru, that's for sure. Just something I'll have to get used to if I go through with it I guess.

To your point, all my geriatric ICE cars have been traded or donated at 200,000 mi+ (except the civic hybrid, whose battery died) without any engine issues. The cost of maintenance on other things (shocks, transmissions, brakes, electrical issues, etc, etc) just becomes more than the car is worth at that point and I'd rather spend my money and time on other things. So, out with the old.

In a nutshell... I'd love to have a good feeling that the Lightning will take me 200,000 miles and/or 15 years or so. Still waiting on affirmation of that, but I may never get it and just have to try my luck.

 

[jbirdzee]

I'd assume after 10 years your power and torque will be the same in the Lighting, but just the capacity/range will be reduced (might be wrong on that). And yes I've seen that Tesla chart - looks to be about a 10-15% drop over 200,000 miles. I'd rather a 3rd party test or community reports to back that up though.

Frankly, I don't care if it's a 30% drop by that age. I just don't want it to brick itself. An expected minor inconvenience is a completely different issue than a $20,000+ bill to keep it on the road. 150,000mi is respectable life for a vehicle, especially if you've had it since new, but that's still daily-driver age for me. My current Subaru is at 165,000 and runs like the day I bought it. Longevity is something I expect, within reason of course. I'll be much more nervous about my Lightning at 165,000 miles than I am currently with my Subaru, that's for sure. Just something I'll have to get used to if I go through with it I guess.

To your point, all my geriatric ICE cars have been traded or donated at 200,000 mi+ (except the civic hybrid, whose battery died) without any engine issues. The cost of maintenance on other things (shocks, transmissions, brakes, electrical issues, etc, etc) just becomes more than the car is worth at that point and I'd rather spend my money and time on other things. So, out with the old.

In a nutshell... I'd love to have a good feeling that the Lightning will take me 200,000 miles and/or 15 years or so. Still waiting on affirmation of that, but I may never get it and just have to try my luck.

It seems like it should last for 150k, we know the packs degrade with time, but for me I wonder about the inverter for the traction motors when/if it gets value engineered. A few dried up electrolytic caps would be a cheap disaster, hopefully those aren't used. I know that ICE management systems with all of their electronics have been here for years and years - but energy of course used to be in the gasoline, and that moved through piping, pumps, and electronically controlled injectors. Now we're moving the energy through wires and some beefy transistors.
With 563hp on the extended range model, and assuming both motors split the load evenly, these motors are each getting 210kW of AC power from the inverter(s). That's not sustained, but those levels will certainly be there for short durations. I think it is pretty amazing to consider what some of today's EVs are doing on the electrical side to compete with their ICE counterparts. 240V/200A to your home is 48kW. This truck will consume more than 8x that amount when it produces 563hp.

I'll feel better in the future when we see more aftermarket/refurbished/replacement EV parts readily available, making some of us who work on our own cars be able to squeak a few extra miles out of these types of vehicles later on.

 

[DadBald]

Yeah I agree with that for sure. I almost repaired my civic high voltage battery myself, but I researched my way out of the comfort zone and decided better safe than sorry. You can spill gasoline and be fine - you can get dead from a battery mishap in an instant. However- some things would definitely be doable, particularly with the motor or connections or whatever.

 

[SteffanG]

Don't forget cycles on a battery also depends on how high you charge it. The battery will last A LOT longer charging between 20-70% than it will from 0-100% or even 20-90%. If you can keep the max daily charge (if it is charged daily) to 70 or 80%, it should degrade a lot slower.

 

[DadBald]

Yeah that's a good point, and I need to do a bit of research on that yet too (battery care). I only really drive 25-30mi per day, plus some *occasional* longer trips on the weekend. At least for now... there's potential I'll have to travel the state for work in the future which is why I'm interested in the bigger pack.

Are there any concerns hovering around the 60-70% range for most of it's life (30mi = ~10% of the ER pack)? I'm imagining something like an old plasma TV with burn-in or something... wearing out certain cells in the battery sooner creating an imbalance.

I'm making stuff up. I need to do more research to really understand it.

 

[MickeyAO]

Are there any concerns hovering around the 60-70% range for most of it's life (30mi = ~10% of the ER pack)? I'm imagining something like an old plasma TV with burn-in or something... wearing out certain cells in the battery sooner creating an imbalance.

No

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