2023 Lightning ordering starts in August?

[Flashy McLightning]

23MY invites will start going out next week. First group will be customers who were offered a 22 but extended because they were waiting for a Pro.

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[MurphysLaww]

Something else just open up ? Think my GF just got an e-mail.

 

[SmokingtheMeats]

Something else just open up ? Think my GF just got an e-mail.

What does it say?

 

[RickLightning]

But in what order will the orders be built? We still have orders from January without a build week. Will an order from July get built in October or March? How does Ford decide who will be the lucky few with 2023 orders that get delivered in q4 2022?

Really, you don't know this? Wow... Ford Engineers figured this out long ago.

 

[RickLightning]

The 150,000 run rate is by mid-2023. If one does some figuring, that means that 2nd half of 2023 will make 75,000, and first half 2023 will make less. Given they only will make 20,000 2022s, you can make a SWAG and say first half 2023 would be maybe 40,000.

40,000 + 75,000 = 115,000 out of 185,000 reservations. Of course not 100% will convert.

The other thing that most don't understand is that production of your truck is guided by factors beyond your control, including dealer allocation and ZEV states. Hugely impacted by both. I reserved 12 hours in, and in a non-ZEV state. Based on my May 2021 Mach-E being made from mid-January until March 1st, and not shipped until May, and not delivered until 50.4 weeks after ordering, I bet I won't be able to order until mid-Fall, and won't see it until after 7/1/23 in time to get 25% of the tax credit.

 

[greenne]

The 150,000 run rate is by mid-2023. If one does some figuring, that means that 2nd half of 2023 will make 75,000, and first half 2023 will make less. Given they only will make 20,000 2022s, you can make a SWAG and say first half 2023 would be maybe 40,000.

40,000 + 75,000 = 115,000 out of 185,000 reservations. Of course not 100% will convert.

The other thing that most don't understand is that production of your truck is guided by factors beyond your control, including dealer allocation and ZEV states. Hugely impacted by both. I reserved 12 hours in, and in a non-ZEV state. Based on my May 2021 Mach-E being made from mid-January until March 1st, and not shipped until May, and not delivered until 50.4 weeks after ordering, I bet I won't be able to order until mid-Fall, and won't see it until after 7/1/23 in time to get 25% of the tax credit.

I'm guessing by the tone and verbiage in Ford's emails and press releases they intend on fulfilling all the reservations they have by the end of MY 2023. There was a reason they cut reservations off at 200k. Every email from them said something like those that didn't get an invite to 2022 would get an invite for 2023. (They did not use the phrase "future model years"). It appears like they intend to *try* to get these done and not have people spend years on a list (aka Rivian and Tesla).

I honestly do think Ford is trying here..I do realize everyone is frustrated and I am sure Ford want to get as many trucks as possible before Silverado and Ram bust onto the scene.

 

[greenne]

But in what order will the orders be built? We still have orders from January without a build week. Will an order from July get built in October or March? How does Ford decide who will be the lucky few with 2023 orders that get delivered in q4 2022?

Don't be obtuse....

While there is some leeway in scheduling orders across a model year, I see no way Ford could schedule a 2023 for assembly before a 2022. I'm thinking we'll see a lot of scheduling in the next few weeks for Aug-->Sept. 2023s would be scheduled until October at the earliest.

If they start taking reservations for 2023 soon I think that is a good sign and probably confirms the MY2022 run will end on time.

As to who get scheduled first within 2023 MY..who knows? If they follow MY 2022 logic perhaps ZEV states will get a greater allotment at least initially.

 

[MurphysLaww]

What does it say?

It was the invitation to put her order in, Dealer called shortly after. Think she ordered a Lariat.

It had the splash page that 2023 order banks were open.

 

[RickLightning]

I'm guessing by the tone and verbiage in Ford's emails and press releases they intend on fulfilling all the reservations they have by the end of MY 2023. There was a reason they cut reservations off at 200k. Every email from them said something like those that didn't get an invite to 2022 would get an invite for 2023. (They did not use the phrase "future model years"). It appears like they intend to *try* to get these done and not have people spend years on a list (aka Rivian and Tesla).

I honestly do think Ford is trying here..I do realize everyone is frustrated and I am sure Ford want to get as many trucks as possible before Silverado and Ram bust onto the scene.

Never happen.

There are ~185,000 reservations left. Run rate of 150,000 by mid-2023, which, assuming that doesn't keep growing, only 75,000 in 2nd half (but that assumes full calendar year production).

They will be 50,000+ shy in 2023 and have to go into 2024.

 

[KevinC]

It was the invitation to put her order in, Dealer called shortly after. Think she ordered a Lariat.

It had the splash page that 2023 order banks was open.

Well if thats true you at least have to get the pricing for all of us. Can she see a builder that the rest of us can't see?

 

[greenne]

Never happen.

There are ~185,000 reservations left. Run rate of 150,000 by mid-2023, which, assuming that doesn't keep growing, only 75,000 in 2nd half (but that assumes full calendar year production).

They will be 50,000+ shy in 2023 and have to go into 2024.

What reservation-->order conversion rate are you assuming?

Farley is on the record as predicting 80%....which would mean only 160k needed.
2022 Ford F-150 Lightning Order Conversions Will Be Staggered (fordauthority.com)

Waves 1-4 were estimated 47% conversion rate
Lightning Waves #1-4 have a 47% order conversion rate. | F-150 Lightning Forum For Owners, News, Discussions (f150lightningforum.com)

BTW I'm not saying Ford is right or wrong..but I do think there is some method to their madness....

By your own math is Ford *did* deliver 20,000 in MY2022 that means 140k in 2023.

75k(2nd half) + 40-50k (1st half)..means they are off only by 15-25k. A few conversions less and/or a few more produced and they are in the game.

 

[vandy1981]

23MY invites will start going out next week. First group will be customers who were offered a 22 but extended because they were waiting for a Pro.

Can you share your source, please?

 

[greenne]

Well if thats true you at least have to get the pricing for all of us. Can she see a builder that the rest of us can't see?

FWIW the Lightning build and price tool on the ford.com website has been down for the past hour or so

 

[Deleted member 9341]

FWIW the Lightning build and price tool on the ford.com website has been down for the past hour or so

Works fine for me…at least on iPhone.

 

[merek]

Never happen.

There are ~185,000 reservations left. Run rate of 150,000 by mid-2023, which, assuming that doesn't keep growing, only 75,000 in 2nd half (but that assumes full calendar year production).

They will be 50,000+ shy in 2023 and have to go into 2024.

You are forgetting that 150k reservations doesn't mean 150k orders. I suspect the conversion rate is going to be fairly low, especially if everyone is pushed to Lariats and Platinums again.

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