So...reserved 2 hours in...with reservation number...I'm assuming SOL on price protection?

[greenne]

It's not that low of volume though. Cost of good sold for Ford in 2021 was still 111 billion (vs 137 billion in 2018). That's a significant decline, but Ford is still selling a crap ton of vehicles overall, and most new vehicles ford sold in 2021 were at sticker price. In early 2020, I purchased an Expedition Max for $8,000 under sticker. That just wasn't happening in most of 2021 or in this year.

The real question is-- what is Ford's "profit" off that Expedition Max(purchased in 2020 for $8k under sticker) vs a similar Expedition sold today at sticker. I'm guessing the delta isn't as large as it looks

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[jb56]

The real question is-- what is Ford's "profit" off that Expedition Max(purchased in 2020 for $8k under sticker) vs a similar Expedition sold today at sticker. I'm guessing the delta isn't as large as it looks

Maybe so, but we still should factor in that first price increase (from the sub MSRP prices up to MSRP) in addition to the increases in MSRP now. Ford already captured that difference. So if Ford raises the MSRP of a 2023 expedition by $5,000, that's not just a $5,000 increase over 2020 in terms of average sale price.

So average sale price already inflated significantly before any MSRP increase.

Again, that isn't necessarily bad or anything. It's just something people should factor in when they look at why Ford might be increasing the price on the lightning. I don't think it's just due to inflationary pressure and supply issues. I think it's largely a response to the insane demand.

 

[cvalue13]

For Tesla, if I understand correctly… you order the vehicle in a particular trim. People that ordered a higher trim later than you might have gotten theirs first, which isn’t unreasonable, but they’ll go by timestamp within a particular style/trim

this isn’t the full picture

Tesla prioritizes regions of the globe (CT not going outside US anytime soon, despite int’l reservations taken), as well as regions of the country (eg not shipping to regions until sufficient regional orders for shipping), and otherwise also at times appears to prioritize deliveries owners with prior ownership history.

meanwhile, using the CT as example:many believe only the quad motor will be sold initially, which means the lowly 2 and 1 motor orders could be years later… and without price protection

I’m not loooking to defend any of it, but instead only to point out that for these high demand low production vehicles Ford is far from unique in handing out golden tickets to some and poo tickets to others. And given apparent the consistency of this (in broad strokes) across manufacturers, I assume there’s underlying business rationale that is compelling - even if frustrating

 

[21PlatPB]

Worse is that I am in Canada. I ordered the truck and have not got scheduled for a build even though my dealer told me I was #6 of 12 allocations (i reserved 25 mins after the presentation started). I am phoning later today to find out but from other things I have heard on the forum the price is going up about $14k. That $14k after the taxes are paid on it become a $19k price increase (15% tax plus a 20% luxury tax on the $14k). I have a feeling at almost $140k after taxes for a Lariat high, they are going to have A LOT of cancellations as that is over $40k more than an ICE version. There is rumors of no price protection for Canadians even if an order was placed.

Don’t forget the new luxury tax coming into effect Sept 1 10% of total price or 20% of the amount over $100k, whichever is less. This is on top of the current 15% tax.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politics/2022/8/11/1_6023364.amp.html

My Platinum got bumped to a 2023 last week, price went up 11,500 plus whatever the new luxury tax will bump it. He said he’s not sure if the order is price protected or not and is going to look into it this week. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter as I’ve been thinking on it for a bit and am going to cancel my order today.

 

[SteffanG]

Don’t forget the new luxury tax coming into effect Sept 1 10% of total price or 20% of the amount over $100k, whichever is less. This is on top of the current 15% tax.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politics/2022/8/11/1_6023364.amp.html

My Platinum got bumped to a 2023 last week, price went up 11,500 plus whatever the new luxury tax will bump it. He said he’s not sure if the order is price protected or not and is going to look into it this week. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter as I’ve been thinking on it for a bit and am going to cancel my order today.

I am in the same boat right now. If they are going to price protect my order I may stay with the truck, but I have been looking at other vehicles this last week and the Hyundai Palisade is on my short list. At $60k it is a $40k plus tax difference from a non-raised price which buys a lot of fuel.

I did include the luxury tax on the one you quoted, just further in which is why I said a $14k increase turns into a $19k increase after taxes (the lariat high was $100k so it just falls under that tax without an increase).

 

[21PlatPB]

I am in the same boat right now. If they are going to price protect my order I may stay with the truck, but I have been looking at other vehicles this last week and the Hyundai Palisade is on my short list. At $60k it is a $40k plus tax difference from a non-raised price which buys a lot of fuel.

I did include the luxury tax on the one you quoted, just further in which is why I said a $14k increase turns into a $19k increase after taxes (the lariat high was $100k so it just falls under that tax without an increase).

Gotcha, most people aren’t aware of it so just wanted to make sure you were considering it as well.

Agreed $40k buys a lot of fuel, and the Palisade is a nice ride. I bought an XC60 recharge plug in hybrid a couple months ago and love it so my “need” for a lighting is pretty much gone.

I did also reserve a Silverado EV RST first edition in the first couple mins of their presentation. For the same price the faster charging and 100 mile extra range makes me favour that truck over the lightning anyways even if it does look kinda odd.

 

[hturnerfamily]

I'm not sure that anybody was 'jumped' after the initial reservations, as many thousands, if not 40,000 or more reserved so quickly... with only 15-20k being built in 2022, and many Fleets included...

it was really more of a 'luck of the draw' than anything

we may see the same in the next wave

 

[EVTruckGuy]

It's not that low of volume though.

How many Lightnings do you think Ford is selling this year and next year? You don't think this is a low volume vehicle?

This is an exceedingly low volume vehicle for 2022. It's still going to be really low in volume next year as well.

 

[cclark20]

I'm not sure that anybody was 'jumped' after the initial reservations, as many thousands, if not 40,000 or more reserved so quickly... with only 15-20k being built in 2022, and many Fleets included...

it was really more of a 'luck of the draw' than anything

we may see the same in the next wave

Unfortunately Dealers were able to front load any of their preferred/VIP customers with a reservation to the front of the order line. I guess thats lucky if your the person that reserved late in 21 and still got to order a 22 Lightning.

Also some Dealers charged reservations holders $10-$40K to be put at the front of the line.

So yes there are plenty of shady dealer things going on with the Lightning reservation and order process. Ford although talking big really hasn’t done much to stop the shenanigans.

 

[jefro]

I looked at the Silverado web site and they are holding the WT at $40K still. Tesla truck will for sure go up. No way to make stainless cheap even if you are the current king of EV. Ionic 5 dealers if they have them are nice enough to charge $5K more. Isn't that sweet of them. Even Bolt's are hard to get due to the battery recall. iD.4 might be reasonable if they do get them built in USA. VW might offer a pickup in the van body.

 

[jb56]

How many Lightnings do you think Ford is selling this year and next year? You don't think this is a low volume vehicle?

This is an exceedingly low volume vehicle for 2022. It's still going to be really low in volume next year as well.

Although I'm totally happy to limit this conversation just to lightnings, we weren't just talking about lightnings.

But, if we are limiting this to lightnings, then absolutely, it is a low volume vehicle compared to the rest of Ford's fleet.

 

[ivan256]

I don't think they will jack up the price any more than they have to.

Just because they CAN raise the price more and still sell out next year doesn't mean it would benefit them to do that.

In order to maximize profit, Ford needs to sell a few hundred thousand per year. The prices they set reflect their plans to sell large numbers of trucks.

If they jacked up the price another $20k or more just because they can... And they certainly would still sell out in 2023 if they did this, it would not improve profit long term.

I don't think this is an accurate assessment.

If they weren't selling MSRP trucks to reservation holders, and they just sent them all to dealers to price at market rate, the ability to charge over sticker would be greatly diminished. The fact that so much of the production is being taken off the market at sticker by reservation holders makes the few remaining trucks for sale on the open market that much more valuable.

It's unclear how many $100k trucks they can sell in the 2023 model year. Maybe they could sell them all. Maybe interest rates will be too high and the economy too terrible for them to manage it.

I know I make too much to qualify for the new tax credit, and in spite of/because of that there is zero chance I'm buying a Lariat or Platinum. They're too much money for what they are to begin with. But doubly so not knowing what my income will be in 2024 and beyond. If I get to order finally, and if it doesn't look like I can flip the truck for a profit when it comes time to take delivery (and I'm pretty sure I won't be able to after sales tax) then the dealer can try their luck making an extra profit on their lot. If there are enough people like me, you'll be seeing 2024 Lightnings below sticker.

I can pick up a lightly used late-model V8 F-150, and a backup generator for my house, and gas for the rest of my life before I make up the difference in price to a $90k Lightning. And if the Lightning really does sell out I'll have zero guilt about my environmental impact either, since the net number of gas trucks on the road won't change at all either way.

 

[EVTruckGuy]

Although I'm totally happy to limit this conversation just to lightnings, we weren't just talking about lightnings.

But, if we are limiting this to lightnings, then absolutely, it is a low volume vehicle compared to the rest of Ford's fleet.

This entire topic is about Lightnings... What other vehicles would we be referring to?

 

[jb56]

This entire topic is about Lightnings... What other vehicles would we be referring to?

we were talking about an increase in price to MSRP and the overall net income of Ford’s entire business. We were talking about inflationary pressure vs profit motives. We even discussed the pricing of expeditions.

while the focus here is Lightning’s, we were discussing ford generally as well.

 

[EVTruckGuy]

I don't think this is an accurate assessment.

I can't tell from your response what you are disagreeing with. I read your entire post and didn't see anything in your response related to the points I was making.

Are you disagreeing with the fact Ford could in theory raise the prices and still sell out for 2023? I think this is pretty evident at this point. There is still a huge waiting list. They could certainly raise MSRP even more if they wanted to.

Or are you disagreeing with my contention this would not be a wise strategy for Ford to implement? My point is that Ford could raise the MSRP even more, but I was disagreeing with prior posts stating this strategy would increase profit. I don't think it would increase profit at all in the long term if Ford had an excessive MSRP. They need to stay competitive with the MSRP in order to to sell hundreds of thousands per year. Just look at Rivian. Their vehicles are quite expensive. They are selling as fast as they can be made... But the high MSRP does not lead to any sort of profit. Auto makes typically need volume for profit... Not just selling a small amount of expensive vehicles.

What part is inaccurate?

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