The Private Motor Vehicle Market During The Next 10 Years Should Be Interesting

[Firestop]

So, California made the big move yesterday (8/25/2022) towards eliminating the sale of new ICE vehicles over the next 13 years….other States are in discussions too go down a similar path:

https://newsletter.businessinsider....GVycyZtdD04/6138496fe3e6b61f3d0ce723C7ff3775e

Regardless of EV purchase incentives (IMHO, chump change from a policy standpoint) it will really be interesting to see the impacts of these bigger policy discussions/decisions on all of issues we early adopters fervently discuss…Charging infrastructure, battery technology/EV range/rate of charge, EV features…….

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[kbrannen]

I'm curious if there will be enough EVs available to meet their demand and their yearly increasing "new car sales limit". Sure, there's a bit over 3 years to work out the material shortages and supply chain issues, but will we really be able to ramp up that much that quickly, especially if more states do the very same thing?

Could it also mean more EVs are sent to those states and the rest of the states get fewer choices (sort of like what goes on now to some extent)?

A number of people shout "economies of scale will bring prices down!", but what if the prices don't come down because these expensive prices are just what they cost to make? (and companies aren't going to sell things at a loss for long term if they want to stay in business) Further, how long until we have a good supply of used EVs for those who can't buy new ones?

We currently have a supply and demand imbalance which keep prices higher, how long will that last?

Yep, there's pretty much no way to answer any of my questions, but I do wonder about them at times. I've always said the transition to all EV is going to take longer than some want because it's hard with a lot of "moving parts" (factors and variables).

 

[Tony Burgh]

I'm curious if there will be enough EVs available to meet their demand and their yearly increasing "new car sales limit". Sure, there's a bit over 3 years to work out the material shortages and supply chain issues, but will we really be able to ramp up that much that quickly, especially if more states do the very same thing?

Could it also mean more EVs are sent to those states and the rest of the states get fewer choices (sort of like what goes on now to some extent)?

A number of people shout "economies of scale will bring prices down!", but what if the prices don't come down because these expensive prices are just what they cost to make? (and companies aren't going to sell things at a loss for long term if they want to stay in business) Further, how long until we have a good supply of used EVs for those who can't buy new ones?

We currently have a supply and demand imbalance which keep prices higher, how long will that last?

Yep, there's pretty much no way to answer any of my questions, but I do wonder about them at times. I've always said the transition to all EV is going to take longer than some want because it's hard with a lot of "moving parts" (factors and variables).

Many hard questions that can’t be answered now. But without targets and deadlines, nothing gets accomplished.

 

[beatle]

I think it'll be interesting in 13 years when the requirement/restriction goes into place. Manufacturers don't typically rush into meeting requirements for sale unless they otherwise make them more money.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

It will force investment in charging infrastructure. We don’t need 400+ miles of range if we can get reliable charge stations that will fill up a vehicle in 10 minutes.

Or better yet, imagine short pulse charging. You get some juice every time you stop at a traffic light. Stretches of road that charges, or tunnels, etc.

 

[Bandit216]

Many hard questions that can’t be answered now. But without targets and deadlines, nothing gets accomplished.

Should be: "But without realistic targets and deadlines, nothing gets accomplished.

 

[Tony Burgh]

Should be: "But without realistic targets and deadlines, nothing gets accomplished.

yes, but the reach should exceed the grasp.

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