How many more months for day 1 reservation holders?

[Kirk]

I am also a frustrated day one reservation holder. I want a Lariat ER, which they are supposedly building in larger quantities than things like the Pro, but still no news.

I am sitting here looking at my aging 2009 truck which needs repairs. Spending enough money to keep it limping along. If I knew for sure it would be another year I’d fix more stuff, but I keep hoping. Fruitlessly.

Sponsored

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Not sure what you meant… of course everyone can do their research without investing into companies.
“As a shareholder” meaning that I have interest in following their corporate game. Everyone was happy when shares rose from $5 to $20 on the news of Lightning. Now people pointing out to me on this forum that it is “not Lightning” mess pushing it down to $10. Of course, it is one of the factors in several recent events which are testing the company and competency of its leaders.
From 16k to 160k production in one year sounds a bit unrealistic to me.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not all doom and gloom - still holding on to my preorder and stocks. But the lack of transparency and recent price&trims shenanigans are quite a bit frustrating.

Exact same boat here, and drawing the same conclusions. As of right now, Ford is still a strong contender for my $, but the clock is definitely ticking.

 

[Kirk]

I’ll be honest and say I’d rather have the technology package and better battery chemistry that the Tesla is likely to sport. The body shape though, that is a challenge.

 

[greenne]

Not sure what you meant… of course everyone can do their research without investing into companies.
“As a shareholder” meaning that I have interest in following their corporate game. Everyone was happy when shares rose from $5 to $20 on the news of Lightning. Now people pointing out to me on this forum that it is “not Lightning” mess pushing it down to $10. Of course, it is one of the factors in several recent events which are testing the company and competency of its leaders.
From 16k to 160k production in one year sounds a bit unrealistic to me.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not all doom and gloom - still holding on to my preorder and stocks. But the lack of transparency and recent price&trims shenanigans are quite a bit frustrating.

To be fair, no one from Ford has ever suggested they were capable of ramping up from 16k to 160k in one year.

Everything I have seen said Ford was saying a RATE of 150-160k truck per year by mid/late 2023. A rate like that is challenging but doable. I have not seen them back off that goal...

 

[greenne]

I’ll be honest and say I’d rather have the technology package and better battery chemistry that the Tesla is likely to sport. The body shape though, that is a challenge.

My guess is Cybertruck if it ever comes to market at all, will be much more expensive than the Lightning.

 

[wheelz2000]

@biers
Isn't WA a ZEV state ?

Is your dealer a high volume / high allocation compared to others ?

Looking at @TaxmanHog spreadsheet, you can see that WA has not received many orders compared to the rest of the states:

By the time ford "invites" me since reserving on the 19th, the truck will be over 100k....ya know from supply costs and inflation. My 45k xlt seems more appealing to keep the longer they make me wait. Was exciting at the reveal, but that has since worn off.

 

[Pilot2022]

@biers
Isn't WA a ZEV state ?

Is your dealer a high volume / high allocation compared to others ?

Looking at @TaxmanHog spreadsheet, you can see that WA has not received many orders compared to the rest of the states:

unlike popular belief, WA is not a ZEV state. my local dealer only got two trucks in 2022 and had 578 reservations when I checked couple of months ago.

 

[TaxmanHog]

I can't answer the OP's question directly not having FoMoCo complete order data, but as a representative sample of 519 orders I tracked on my version, the majority or 304 [59%] were 5/19 reservationist, with a substantial second from 5/20 then diminishing to a sprinkling of of later reservation dates.

PS, I created a new tab with a pivot table to pull the counts.

As far as Orders sent to 2022 production, the count is around 16,955

Updated with September sales data

 

[TaxmanHog]

As far as Washington State being ZEV of not, this is what I went by.....

PPPPS
I cleaned up the lime green highlights on all the ZEV states, appears I have been sloppy with formatting lately when carrying over the data from my local EXCEL copy to the online version in Google Sheets.

 

[trev5150]

Those are known variables, unknowns are

You reminded me of…

Now I’m wondering how to make this a vanity plate.

 

[trev5150]

a representative sample of 519 orders

n = 519 is a statistically significant sample.

 

[Ecstatic]

Washington State passed ZEV mandates in 2021 that will apply to new vehicles sold starting in 2025.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Washington State passed ZEV mandates in 2021 that will apply to new vehicles sold starting in 2025.

This article mentions the program ending 7/31/2025
https://www.chronline.com/stories/i...tric-vehicle-goal-incentives-available,296556

 

[Ecstatic]

This article mentions the program ending 7/31/2025
https://www.chronline.com/stories/i...tric-vehicle-goal-incentives-available,296556

That article refers to Washington’s sales tax rebate incentive for consumers who purchase a new EV (and requires the price of the EV to be $45k or less, so the Pro Lightning will no longer qualify with the 2023 price increase). Washington’s ZEV mandate passed in (correcting myself) 2020 requires vehicle manufactures to meet certain clean air requirements starting with MY 2025, so starting with late 2024 vehicle deliveries.

 

[ivan256]

I can't answer the OP's question directly not having FoMoCo complete order data, but as a representative sample of 519 orders I tracked on my version, the majority or 304 [59%] were 5/19 reservationist, with a substantial second from 5/20 then diminishing to a sprinkling of of later reservation dates.

PS, I created a new tab with a pivot table to pull the counts.

As far as Orders sent to 2022 production, the count is around 16,955

Updated with September sales data

This says more about the selection bias of your data set than anything. We know for a fact that 75% of the reservations were after 5/21. But 60% of your dataset is from before. Don't draw conclusions from that data.

Sponsored