When does wave 4 MY2023 start?

[ivan256]

• A dealers’ production is dependent on their reservation conversion rates. Any 23MY converted retail orders in WBDO are intended to be fulfilled for production scheduling (within available commodities).
• Dealers with remaining reservation holders will be prioritized prior to new retail ordering and stock units.

Does this mean that dealers will lose profit if they don't convert a reservation? Or just that it will be delayed until late 2023 when they get to sell the allocation on the open market (potentially at a markup?)

It'd be nice to know if this provides any leverage. Or at least a way to stick it to a dealer who prioritized 25 people ahead of you - at least just a little bit.

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[Iddqd]

Does this mean that dealers will lose profit if they don't convert a reservation? Or just that it will be delayed until late 2023 when they get to sell the allocation on the open market (potentially at a markup?)

It'd be nice to know if this provides any leverage. Or at least a way to stick it to a dealer who prioritized 25 people ahead of you - at least just a little bit.

The way I read it, it’s just that most efficient dealers will get their production faster. Probably to avoid any inventory on the lot; dealerships who hoarded trucks on their lots will get gently “spanked”.
In the end of the day, seems like preorder crowd of 200k angry people will get the priority even if they ordered at the most inefficient and clueless dealer before any dealer get stock/retail lightnings.
The language explicitly says that shuffling the line by a dealership is over and ford will be handling the line (sure…).
I think this is Ford essentially admitting the rollout isn’t going well - they pissed off a bunch of preorder holders by making the line shuffling and wave priority as murky as it is now; and now they will piss off dealers by not sending them retail trucks so dealership can put them on a lot with obnoxious adm. I suppose lots of “available” lightnings for $110-$120k which don’t sell sitting on dealer lots doesn’t look good for a company who “gave the first ev truck for working people”.
Both customers and dealers are getting short end of a stick so Ford can report shiny numbers for the Wall Street. I could care less for dealership pain in this game, this is just my take on “new rules of MY2023 rollout”.

 

[ivan256]

The way I read it, it’s just that most efficient dealers will get their production faster. Probably to avoid any inventory on the lot; dealerships who hoarded trucks on their lots will get gently “spanked”.
In the end of the day, seems like preorder crowd of 200k angry people will get the priority even if they ordered at the most inefficient and clueless dealer before any dealer get stock/retail lightnings.
The language explicitly says that shuffling the line by a dealership is over and ford will be handling the line (sure…).
I think this is Ford essentially admitting the rollout isn’t going well - they pissed off a bunch of preorder holders by making the line shuffling and wave priority as murky as it is now; and now they will piss off dealers by not sending them retail trucks so dealership can put them on a lot with obnoxious adm. I suppose lots of “available” lightnings for $110-$120k which don’t sell sitting on dealer lots doesn’t look good for a company who “gave the first ev truck for working people”.
Both customers and dealers are getting short end of a stick so Ford can report shiny numbers for the Wall Street. I could care less for dealership pain in this game, this is just my take on “new rules of MY2023 rollout”.

I think if the waves and line shuffling was "murky" they would have been fine. But when dealers start calling reservation holders offering trucks they have in-stock NOW at a markup it stops being "murky". Instead people become aware that they got cut in line and that Ford is essentially sanctioning letting the people who did the cutting sell people their spots back for five figures.

I wonder if this will be in business school text books a decade from now. You can treat your customers this way and get away with it if you have 200,000 people falling all over themselves at any cost to get your product. But you can't if you have 200,000 people waiting to score an underpriced ($40k pro) loss leader and you intend to up-sell them. I think that they've blown this so badly that "they'll sell every one they can make at sticker" will only be true if they miss their initial production targets by a significant amount.

 

[Zprime29]

I also wonder what will happen if (and I'm being very hypothetical here) they sell out their 23MY production. 2 scenarios I'm thinking about:
1) All invites are sent out but production sells out before the order deadline, what then?
2) Production sells out before invites are all out, do non invited reservation holders get first crack at 24MY? What about invited who didn't order?

I'm guessing it's very low odds of either scenario but I'm bored waiting for my invite so I'm just thinking out loud.

 

[Iddqd]

I also wonder what will happen if (and I'm being very hypothetical here) they sell out their 23MY production. 2 scenarios I'm thinking about:
1) All invites are sent out but production sells out before the order deadline, what then?
2) Production sells out before invites are all out, do non invited reservation holders get first crack at 24MY? What about invited who didn't order?

I'm guessing it's very low odds of either scenario but I'm bored waiting for my invite so I'm just thinking out loud.

At this point there is a spelled plan of what Ford plans to do with a lot of room for interpretation what may or may not happen.
Given past history I think there is a high probability that MY23 orders will spill out into MY24.
Jacking up the prices by Summer 2023 will give the leverage to make people to drop out, or preorders become irrelevant if there are Lariat/Platinum units (abandoned or hoarded since it says no dealer stock) on the lot for new MSRP or you have to wait for $5k cheaper XLT for who knows how long.
Something that doesn’t add up is that capacity for my 23 is claimed to be 150k. With 200k reservations, does it mean Ford “processed” 50k reservations? Or with 16k units produced in my22 this leaves 36k reservations in limbo - maybe Ford only estimates ~80% of 200k preorder holders will actually order; and then everyone be done with this preorder nonsense

 

[Zprime29]

I'm pretty confident Ford expects a low conversion rate for the remaining reservations. In my hypothetical, I debate if it would be better to order a 23MY and not risk the price increase. However, if the economy tanks and demand slackens enough then it might be advantageous to wait. Only time will tell.

 

[balucipher]

My dealer told me to expect an email today

 

[RickE]

• 23MY Wave 4 invites plans to open on October 13th; selected customers will be notified via email with an invite to order.

INFORMATION
23MY F-150 Lightning Ordering Update Broadcast & Information

ACTION REQUESTED

• Watch the 23MY F-150 Lightning Ordering Plan Update Broadcast to learn key information your dealership should know as you convert your remaining F-150 Lightning reservation holders.
• Please review and share the 23MY F-150 Lighting Ordering Update information below with your dealership team.

23MY F-150 LIGHTNING RESERVATION-TO-ORDER

• 23MY F-150 Lightning continues the Wave Ordering Approach to minimize order-to-delivery times and allow flexibility to adapt to production impacts due to supply chain constraints.
• 23MY F-150 Lightning will continue to leverage both online & offline reservation to order conversion.
• Ford is prioritizing reservation holders prior to any open retail ordering or stock units.
• During each 23MY wave invitation ordering period, available configurations, pricing, and estimated delivery timing is subject to change until time of order.
• Each wave ordering period intends to target the upcoming 2-3 months of production.
• Depending on ordering demand during each wave, available configurations may be shut off in real-time once targeted production volumes are met for that wave period. Reservation holders are highly encouraged to order as soon as possible when each wave ordering period opens to ensure the best chance of ordering their desired configuration.
• All remaining reservation holders will be invited to convert to an order by Summer 2023.
• All invited reservation holders will continue to be able to submit an order in subsequent waves if they do not convert to an order in the wave in which they are initially eligible to order.
• There is no “extend my reservation” option for unavailable configurations for 23MY. If a reservation holder desires a current unavailable configuration, they can wait until future wave ordering periods to see if that configuration becomes available.
• Any unconverted reservation holders will not be canceled until final 23MY wave ordering is completed in late Summer 2023. All unconverted reservations will be cancelled after the final August 31st, 2023 deadline.
• Late Summer 2023 is forecasted to be the first retail ordering opportunity for non-reservation holders.

23MY F-150 LIGHTNING PRODUCTION

• As previously communicated, production volume is targeted to ramp up to a run-rate of 150,000 per annum by end of 2023CY.
• 23MY production is currently planned from October 2022 to November 2023.
• 23MY production run-rate is forecasted to ramp up significantly towards late Summer 2023; approx. 70% of production is forecasted to be in the final 4 months of 23MY production.
• There will be no published dealership-level production guide available for 23MY F-150 Lightning.
• A dealers’ production is dependent on their reservation conversion rates. Any 23MY converted retail orders in WBDO are intended to be fulfilled for production scheduling (within available commodities).
• Dealers with remaining reservation holders will be prioritized prior to new retail ordering and stock units.

UPCOMING 23MY F-150 LIGHTNING WAVE INVITATIONS

• 23MY Wave 4 invites plans to open on October 13th; selected customers will be notified via email with an invite to order.
• F-150 Lightning Pro series is now sold out for 23MY retail orders.
• Prior to each invitation wave, the Ford.com online configurator will be updated to provide directional ETA’s of vehicle delivery timing based on the availability of each configuration.
• Each dealer will earn an amount of invitations for each wave based on their SoN % versus total invitations sent nationally.
• Each wave invitation period volume will vary based on total national invitations sent to fulfill the future production period forecasted requirements.
• Ford will go in reservation list order to invite the next available reservation holders at each dealership.
• Dealers will be able to confirm the list of reservation holders for their dealership in each wave directly prior to each specific wave via the ROVP site.
• There is no further dealer prioritization actions available.

Model e CERTIFICATION IMPACT

• A dealer’s Model e certification decision has no impact on 23MY F-150 Lightning reservation-to-order plan.
• Any 23MY F-150 Lightning converted reservation to retail order will be honored and fulfilled for production regardless of the dealer’s Model e certification decision.
• 23MY production scheduling is prior to any Model e certification programs taking effect starting in 2024CY.
• 24MY F-150 Lightning ordering and production plan will be communicated at a later date.

There is a lot of information to digest here. Two things stick out to me.

1- It states that invitations will go out, via email, on October 13th. To my knowledge no one has received a wave 4 invite.

2- Production schedule - most will not get their Lightnings until late Summer or Fall of 2023. That means that most reservation holders would be waiting over 2 years since they made their reservation and actually got their truck.

• 23MY production run-rate is forecasted to ramp up significantly towards late Summer 2023; approx. 70% of production is forecasted to be in the final 4 months of 23MY production.

 

[Silenze]

I'm pretty confident Ford expects a low conversion rate for the remaining reservations. In my hypothetical, I debate if it would be better to order a 23MY and not risk the price increase. However, if the economy tanks and demand slackens enough then it might be advantageous to wait. Only time will tell.

What are you waiting for? The price of lithium to come down? Has tesla ever reduced the prices of their vehicles? Every day is a day closer to electric car mandates in carb states.

 

[Zprime29]

I think there may be a scenario where a perfect storm of a tanking economy, emerging technology, and additional competition force prices down or at least to stop going up. In addition to future vehicles being more capable and hopefully fewer bugs to be worked out.

Since I have a late reservation, I can afford to sit and wait. I want a lightning, but it's not a must have. I'm more concerned with getting the best bang for my buck. If that means waiting for a used Lightning in another 2 years, so be it.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

What are you waiting for? The price of lithium to come down? Has tesla ever reduced the prices of their vehicles? Every day is a day closer to electric car mandates in carb states.

Yes, Tesla has both reduced prices and introduced lower priced versions in the past to stoke demand to match their output forecasts. Admittedly much easier for them to do without the middleman.

 

[RickE]

My dealer told me to expect an email today

Did you get the email today??

 

[balucipher]

Did you get the email today??

Nope

 

[theblunden]

Nope

The last wave didn't get notified till 5 pm ET via text message. keep the hope alive

 

[ivan256]

What are you waiting for? The price of lithium to come down? Has tesla ever reduced the prices of their vehicles? Every day is a day closer to electric car mandates in carb states.

Tesla has reduced prices. So has Ford. And they both will again too.

But really, what are you buying for? A $40k pro was a genuinely good deal. An $80k Lariat is a lifestyle choice. There is no rational economic or environmental justification for one.

Used lightnings are already selling below MSRP, and they've only made 0.5% of the total production run so far. There will be low mileage examples on the used market for 30% below sticker 18-24 months from now. So I guess I'm waiting for you to get tired of yours?

If EVs are going to be $80,000 in 2022 dollars in perpetuity there won't be CARB states and EV mandates anymore because politicians that maintain those mandates will lose in landslides. EV trucks will get cheaper. By a LOT. (They might not be 400+HP high performance cruisers though, just like the Chevy Bolt isn't a Tesla)

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