Are order conversion rates absolutely horrific?

[neririn]

I just got the email to order my 2nd Lightning and while good news for me, it can't be good news for Ford. My first reservation was placed right as the launch event started and I was one of the first. I received my invite in the MY22 2nd wave of invites. I've had my Lightning since June and LOVE it.

That said, when I realized my initial reservation position was really high, and that the order invite might come sooner than I could financially justify, I made a 2nd reservation. I made this 2nd reservation less than 3 hours before they shut down the reservations due to hitting 250,000 pre-orders.

How on earth could I already be up again? There is ZERO chance they have shipped 100,000 lightings, let alone the ~125,000 needed for my number to be up again with a poor 50% conversion rate.

Did tens of thousands of reservation holders bail once the full rebate wasn't available? Did most everyone want the Pro trim and cancel when they couldn't get it the way they wanted?

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[bmwhitetx]

I still have two reservations (Day 2 and Day 153) uninvited. Must be your dealer - you may have picked one that had few reservations and lots of allocation. Are you in a ZEV state?

 

[RickLightning]

I reserved 11 hours in. Just got my email to order. Won't be due to features removed including tilting headrests, loss of rebate, and price hike. Same range as our Mach-E with 44% bigger battery, so 44% more expensive to get somewhere. Low 70s after rebate was high. $90k is too high. Debating waiting to see what 2023 brings, but probably going to cancel reservation.

 

[neririn]

I still have two reservations (Day 2 and Day 153) uninvited. Must be your dealer - you may have picked one that had few reservations and lots of allocation. Are you in a ZEV state?

Not a ZEV state, but I am at the largest dealer in the state so maybe true on allocations. This is really odd. I was 2nd Lightning in Utah back in June, no idea how many there are now. Still haven't seen one though...

 

[Texas Dan]

I also just received an invite to order with an estimated delivery of Spring 2023. I reserved on May 29th, 2021, so figured I was around reservation #100,000 and wasn’t expecting delivery until the end of 2023 or 2024. My delivery also appears to be coming in unexpectedly early.

With all the uncertainty in EV market I had pretty much given up on the F150L but, now that I have actually been asked to order, my blood is racing again. So now I have to decide. I will be surprised if I can resist the temptation to order.

 

[shocker]

I ordered on 9/30 and got a build week of 11/21, whereas I had planned on "Spring 2023" as the website listed.
Between loss or halving of tax credits, rising unemployment and interest rates, I suspect 1/3 of the original 250K will bail. But, all the trucks not produced by direct order will be produced for dealer stock and sell anyway.

 

[Doughecka]

I just got the email today as well, day 1 reservation... 4 days after obtaining a 2022 PowerBoost.

Last time I checked (a few weeks ago), I was #12 in line at my dealer. Sounds like Ford just invited everyone to the party, lol.

Already made up my mind, wanted the ability to do longer-range towing and 40/20/40 front seats. Found a 2022 XLT PowerBoost on the lot w/ MaxTow, 20" wheels, towing mirrors, 7.2kw ProPower, and the longer bed.

 

[metroshot]

My prediction that about 50% conversion rate seems to be too high now ?

Some folks laughed at me when I predicted 50% or less conversion back in early 2022.

Now with the changes in the economy, impending recession, sky high interest rates, and availability of other EVs - not a surprise that Ford predicted that all reservation holders will be able to order by END of 2023...

 

[neririn]

I also just received an invite to order with an estimated delivery of Spring 2023. I reserved on May 29th, 2021, so figured I was around reservation #100,000 and wasn’t expecting delivery until the end of 2023 or 2024. My delivery also appears to be coming in unexpectedly early.

With all the uncertainty in EV market I had pretty much given up on the F150L but, now that I have actually been asked to order, my blood is racing again. So now I have to decide. I will be surprised if I can resist the temptation to order.

I wonder, is any of the deposit refundable after order if you don't end up buying?

If so, I personally don't see any reason to not order mine. I can then simply asses the situation/market when it finally arrives. I have one now. I love it and would definitely miss it if it were gone. And if I get in a major accident tomorrow where it is totaled, I won't be able to replace it for years. The same will be true if it is stolen or vandalized. Who knows what could happen between now and 'Spring 2003'.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

I wonder, is any of the deposit refundable after order if you don't end up buying?

It is up to your dealer.

 

[Regular150]

I just got the email today as well, day 1 reservation... 4 days after obtaining a 2022 PowerBoost.

Last time I checked (a few weeks ago), I was #12 in line at my dealer. Sounds like Ford just invited everyone to the party, lol.

Already made up my mind, wanted the ability to do longer-range towing and 40/20/40 front seats. Found a 2022 XLT PowerBoost on the lot w/ MaxTow, 20" wheels, towing mirrors, 7.2kw ProPower, and the longer bed.

How much was the PBoost?

 

[Doughecka]

How much was the PBoost?

Well, I got it under A-Plan pricing (thank you random relative!), so it was a little above $58k. MSRP was $64,745.

 

[Texas Dan]

I went ahead and placed my order for a Lariat ER. After I placed the order I realized that I should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit since I have a contract before the new tax credit law goes into effect in 2023. Maybe that’s why that’s why Ford is sending out order invitations much earlier than expected so that as many people as possible will get into contracts before 2023.

I haven’t received a build date yet but I’m starting to believe that my actual build won’t be until later in 2023.

 

[shadycoh]

I went ahead and placed my order for a Lariat ER. After I placed the order I realized that I should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit since I have a contract before the new tax credit law goes into effect in 2023. Maybe that’s why that’s why Ford is sending out order invitations much earlier than expected so that as many people as possible will get into contracts before 2023.

I haven’t received a build date yet but I’m starting to believe that my actual build won’t be until later in 2023.

you may want to think that is how it works but its not.

even if it was considered a contract it would have to have been signed back mid 2022 to count when the law was changed.

 

[COrocket]

I went ahead and placed my order for a Lariat ER. After I placed the order I realized that I should be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit since I have a contract before the new tax credit law goes into effect in 2023. Maybe that’s why that’s why Ford is sending out order invitations much earlier than expected so that as many people as possible will get into contracts before 2023.

I haven’t received a build date yet but I’m starting to believe that my actual build won’t be until later in 2023.

From my understanding you have to order and take delivery by December 31 to get around the new MSRP caps in place. I’m in the same boat and am torn about the LR battery cause I don’t think It’ll qualify

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

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