Are we losing the EV Revolution?

[Texas Dan]

With the lack of demand cited in the scaling back of Electric Vehicle (EV) production plans, it’s easy to postulate that the EV Revolution is being lost. The lack of demand I would postulate is the result of skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, not a lack of interest in EVs. These factors are impacting all vehicle demand, not just EVs.

We must remember that the EV Revolution was started by and is maintained by the State and Federal Governments. The governments have seen success in stoking the fires of the EV Revolution and they are doubling down on their efforts. I also postulate that the EV Revolution is about to get red hot.

Nine CARB states have adopted Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and all the states in the country have to at least have to follow the CAFÉ mandates. The states that have adopted ZEV mandates cover over 30% of the population of the country and require a prohibition of the sale of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. The question begs, “How will this prohibition work?”

The ZEV regulation varies between states, but we can take California as an example. California has an escalating percentage quota that goes to 100% in 2035. Any manufacturer that goes over the quota of ICE vehicles has to pay $20,000 for EVERY vehicle over the quota for that year.

So basically, the governments are going to be imposing penalties for the sale of ICE vehicles and those penalties are going to increase every year until manufacturers ICE vehicles will no longer be price competitive with EVs. This game plan has been in play for years so why is the EV Revolution about to get red hot? Aside from the fact that the state only recently adopted ZEV mandates, the targets are going to be escalating rapid over the next few years.

Market share for EVs in California is about 20% right now and about 7% for the rest of the country. The EV quota is going up to over 40% in California in 2026 and in the other nine ZEV states in 2027. So California is going to have to double its’ EV sales and the other ZEV states are going to have quadruple or quintuple their EV sales within the next couple of years.

The impact on the average auto consumer is going to be tremendous. Whether the consumers like it or not, their ICE vehicle choices are going to be increasingly limited and expensive. A lot of people are going to be very, very upset and I expect a very serious anti-EV counterattack in this EV Revolution.

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[Heliian]

Since the alternative is choking to death on our own pollution then no, we aren't losing.

Since every god damn article is trying to disparage the revolution then no, we aren't losing, we are pissing off the gas companies and they are upping their attacks to hold onto what little foothold they have left.

If anyone thinks a revolution happens overnight or in just one year then they are sadly mistaken. It's going to take years to get it cheap enough and easy enough for the unwashed masses.

Eg, there are still people holding onto incandescent lights because "the light is warmer and a replacment is too expensive" , they don't care that it costs them 10x more to run, they're ignorant to the facts or math.

Getting the world off of the millions of ice vehicles out there is going to take time so I don't care if the late fall economic numbers are just as crappy as they always are, it's going to get better next quarter or the one after that or 5.

 

[Silenze]

The revolution requires every one to buy a new vehicle. $$$

 

[Ventorum94]

With the lack of demand cited in the scaling back of Electric Vehicle (EV) production plans, it’s easy to postulate that the EV Revolution is being lost. The lack of demand I would postulate is the result of skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, not a lack of interest in EVs. These factors are impacting all vehicle demand, not just EVs.

We must remember that the EV Revolution was started by and is maintained by the State and Federal Governments. The governments have seen success in stoking the fires of the EV Revolution and they are doubling down on their efforts. I also postulate that the EV Revolution is about to get red hot.

Nine CARB states have adopted Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and all the states in the country have to at least have to follow the CAFÉ mandates. The states that have adopted ZEV mandates cover over 30% of the population of the country and require a prohibition of the sale of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. The question begs, “How will this prohibition work?”

The ZEV regulation varies between states, but we can take California as an example. California has an escalating percentage quota that goes to 100% in 2035. Any manufacturer that goes over the quota of ICE vehicles has to pay $20,000 for EVERY vehicle over the quota for that year.

So basically, the governments are going to be imposing penalties for the sale of ICE vehicles and those penalties are going to increase every year until manufacturers ICE vehicles will no longer be price competitive with EVs. This game plan has been in play for years so why is the EV Revolution about to get red hot? Aside from the fact that the state only recently adopted ZEV mandates, the targets are going to be escalating rapid over the next few years.

Market share for EVs in California is about 20% right and about 7% for the rest of the country. The EV quota is going up to over 40% in California in 2026 and in the other nine ZEV states in 2027. So California is going to have to double its’ EV sales and the other ZEV states are going to have quadruple or quintuple their EV sales within the next couple of years.

The impact on the average auto consumer is going to be tremendous. Whether the consumers like it or not, their ICE vehicle choices are going to be increasingly limited and expensive. A lot of people are going to be very, very upset and I expect a very serious anti-EV counterattack in this EV Revolution.

[Yawn] I think government has done more to harm the “EV Revolution” than help it, through tax credits that manipulate the free market by vehicle price caps, domestic content requirements, and purchaser income caps.

Forget “green energy” for a moment. The discovery and development of the lithium-ion battery has changed our lives for the better. It has enabled cellphones, tablets and laptop computers, drones, practical cordless power tools, powered wheelchairs, etc., etc. It was inevitable that someone would take a computer and a big lithium-ion battery and connect them to an electric motor, add wheels, and use the contraption for getting around. Disguise it to look like a car, so we can drive it on the highways.

Let’s leave “climate crisis” politics out of EVs. People are buying these early EVs today on their merits as transportation (you can’t convince me that most people are willing to spend $40-$60k of their own money to “save the planet.”) The superior concept of the electric drivetrain automobile has been hijacked and co-opted by climate-change wackos and the irrepressible Left. I own three EVs (two purchased without tax credits), and would prefer them even if they contributed to climate change!

 

[F150ROD]

Did we lose the 4 Banger Revolution?

Sales will go down and then go back up, drop again.

EV's are no longer "revolutionary", it's just another power train available to purchase.

I dont want to get into politics but if we stop pushing forward, in the next decade we are going to be sitting here pointing fingers on who's fault it was that we fell back on tech and EV's. Once the incentives are gone (not soon enough) manufacturers will have to find a way to bring them to us cheaper or go out of business.

No one is forcing anyone to buy EV's, even in California there is no ban on ICE vehicles. There is a mandatory sale of EV's only by 2035 which will eventually be extended or scraped altogether. Again, this doesn't mean you can't drive your ICE vehicle around.

 

[F150ROD]

[Yawn] I think government has done more to harm the “EV Revolution” than help it, through tax credits that manipulate the free market by vehicle price caps, domestic content requirements, and purchaser income caps.

Forget “green energy” for a moment. The discovery and development of the lithium-ion battery has changed our lives for the better. It has enabled cellphones, tablets and laptop computers, drones, practical cordless power tools, powered wheelchairs, etc., etc. It was inevitable that someone would take a computer and a big lithium-ion battery and connect them to an electric motor, add wheels, and use the contraption for getting around. Disguise it to look like a car, so we can drive it on the highways.

Let’s leave “climate crisis” politics out of EVs. People are buying these early EVs today on their merits as transportation (you can’t convince me that most people are willing to spend $40-$60k of their own money to “save the planet.”) The superior concept of the electric drivetrain automobile has been hijacked and co-opted by climate-change wackos and the irrepressible Left. I own three EVs (two purchased without tax credits), and would prefer them even if they contributed to climate change!

Exactly, Ive said it before and I'll say it again. Climate wasn't even on my mind when I got into the EV world.

 

[lightspeed]

With the lack of demand cited in the scaling back of Electric Vehicle (EV) production plans, it’s easy to postulate that the EV Revolution is being lost. The lack of demand I would postulate is the result of skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, not a lack of interest in EVs. These factors are impacting all vehicle demand, not just EVs.

We must remember that the EV Revolution was started by and is maintained by the State and Federal Governments. The governments have seen success in stoking the fires of the EV Revolution and they are doubling down on their efforts. I also postulate that the EV Revolution is about to get red hot.

Nine CARB states have adopted Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and all the states in the country have to at least have to follow the CAFÉ mandates. The states that have adopted ZEV mandates cover over 30% of the population of the country and require a prohibition of the sale of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. The question begs, “How will this prohibition work?”

The ZEV regulation varies between states, but we can take California as an example. California has an escalating percentage quota that goes to 100% in 2035. Any manufacturer that goes over the quota of ICE vehicles has to pay $20,000 for EVERY vehicle over the quota for that year.

So basically, the governments are going to be imposing penalties for the sale of ICE vehicles and those penalties are going to increase every year until manufacturers ICE vehicles will no longer be price competitive with EVs. This game plan has been in play for years so why is the EV Revolution about to get red hot? Aside from the fact that the state only recently adopted ZEV mandates, the targets are going to be escalating rapid over the next few years.

Market share for EVs in California is about 20% right and about 7% for the rest of the country. The EV quota is going up to over 40% in California in 2026 and in the other nine ZEV states in 2027. So California is going to have to double its’ EV sales and the other ZEV states are going to have quadruple or quintuple their EV sales within the next couple of years.

The impact on the average auto consumer is going to be tremendous. Whether the consumers like it or not, their ICE vehicle choices are going to be increasingly limited and expensive. A lot of people are going to be very, very upset and I expect a very serious anti-EV counterattack in this EV Revolution.

I'm not sure who "we' is, but NO, EVs will be the vast majority of cars sold in 20 years.

Ford/GM/etc. screwed up because they assumed they could get the EV price bonus that Tesla was getting forever. They didn't stop to think that covid pricing was unsustainable. Then Tesla took their 20% net profit and used it to wreck everyone else's pricing. What is really concerning is Ford/GM/etc. might not find the will and energy to really compete (Jim Farley seems to get it) and they might give it all to Tesla and Chinese companies which something I don't want to see happen.

Currently, the entire car market is in trouble. And EV growth is still high.

Battery prices are projected to drop something like 11% a year and EV drivetrains to reach price parity with ICE drivetrains before 2030. Battery tech will get better. The charging network is getting better.

ICE is going to look dumb in 10 years.

 

[ctuan13]

Exactly, Ive said it before and I'll say it again. Climate wasn't even on my mind when I got into the EV world.

Yup. I like my Lightning because it's smooth, quiet, comfortable and fits my needs being a truck that finally has lockable storage besides the bed with a tonneau cover (front trunk). I don't operate under any illusion or belief that my truck is better for the environment or that I am somehow more virtuous for owning it.

I got it because I like it, simple as that.

Regardless of environmental science or policy the reality is the more the government pushes, the more people will resist. If it was all just incentives, that's great, but the more state and potentially the federal government punish or disincentivize buyers from purchasing ICE cars, the more pushback they will receive.

Early internal combustion engine cars were unreliable, inconvenient and dangerous, while steam engines were much more user friendly. But eventually technology improved, costs came down and the ICE won. I'd argue if the government had stepped in and attempted to influence the market it could easily have discouraged public adoption and delayed progress by several decades.

With EVs you can implement light incentives, but beyond that, let the free market decide and when EV tech is truly ready, it will take off.

 

[The Weatherman]

I have never thought of it as a Revolution. I think it is more like an Evolution. And those take time and often have a few failed branches along the way.

 

[Jseis]

It’s the value proposition (we hit 4 of 5 below) and the Flex Limited had great trade in value which made the Lightning Lariat palatable & Ford dropped $10K off MSRP the week we acquired. A lot of this is without factoring in future unknowns like depreciation/battery loss of range.

1. Under $30K BEV ($45K won’t cut it).
2. Cheap power (under 10 cents/KWh) OR way cheaper DCFC costs.
3. Charge from home garage (inexpensive if you can use existing 240V outlets. But amp draw can compromise a 200 amp “standard” residential panel).
4. 300+ mile range.
5. You drive many miles a year, say more than 7,500 and likely over 15,000.

 

[Henry Ford]

We are in the Trough of Disillusionment on the Gartner hype cycle. This is expected and normal. Other parts of the world are already on the Slope of Enlightenment. While the United States isn't known for it's enlightenment, we'll get there eventually.

 

[USA EV]

Quite the contrary, prices stayed way higher for way longer than anticipated. Demand finally wore thin at insane price levels so now prices have to come down. As prices come down demand will increase.

There is no turning back (anyone here going back?), raw material prices are continuing to fall, the revolution is fine.

 

[Newton]

The government banned the sale of leaded gas and there was no significant pushback.

 

[BuildBackBadder]

It's not a lack of demand issue. The growth rate is simply not what was predicted and the competition in the space has arrived much faster. High interest rates and lowering gasoline prices are also not helping.

 

[Heliian]

The government banned the sale of leaded gas and there was no significant pushback.

Oh there was pushback, there will always be pushback when change happens. The fear mongers at the time claimed that using unleaded would lead to your engine dying among other dubious claims.

The petro corps complied as they could now charge more for the "special" unleaded fuel. Leaded fuel still exists but not in the mass market for autos.

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