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Texas Dan

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Technology simply isn't there yet to handle heavy duty use cases. I'm not convinced it will be available in 10 years either. I'd like to think Ford has their finger on the pulse of what's coming down the pipeline and is acting accordingly. I don't see heavy duty trucks going zero emissions for a long while. Would be happy to be wrong about this.
Your post tends to indicate that the situation will be static over the next 10 years, it won’t be. Every year the governments will be raising the bar, imposing higher and higher penalties on non-compliant manufacturers. What doesn’t look cost effective now will look very much different when all those penalties kick in.
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Texas Dan

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Not to mention it just takes one amenable Congress to change those dates. At least from a US perspective nothing is set in stone, globally it’s probably a different story.
The only way a new administration would be able to cause a change of course is if they can stip away California’s right self regulated emissions and seriously doubt congress will try that again.
 

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Your post tends to indicate that the situation will be static over the next 10 years, it won’t be. Every year the governments will be raising the bar, imposing higher and higher penalties on non-compliant manufacturers. What doesn’t look cost effective now will look very much different when all those penalties kick in.
EV dislike seems to be bi-partisan near me. I have a friend that is very liberal and a friend that is very conservative, they want to kill each other 99% of the time, but the one place they agree is they don't want to buy EVs. My gf works with a woman who is a liberal activist, at every protest you can imagine, but she sends my gf a constant stream of links for articles saying how EVs are bad. My friend is trans and terrified of a change in the executive branch for personal reasons, but said she will never buy an EV. I'm not sure who is the mastermind behind EV fear in the U.S., but it is unlike anywhere else in the world. Politicians on both sides like votes more than they care about the long term environmental impacts of ICE, if this sentiment continues, the U.S. will keep kicking the can down the road. I fully expect us to be near the bottom of the ICE to EV transition list.

I travel often and work in international business, abroad it seems EV is fully embraced as the future. These types of anti-EV conversations just don't exist, this is a uniquely American view (maybe Russia too?).
 

Zprime29

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The only way a new administration would be able to cause a change of course is if they can stip away California’s right self regulated emissions and seriously doubt congress will try that again.
The one thing our governments are good at is kicking the can down the road. Like I said, I'd be happy to be wrong. But when I think about the level of tech required to meet the needs of medium and heavy duty trucks and what is currently in development. I just don't see it happening on the time scale CA wants it to happen. Time will tell.
 

sotek2345

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EV dislike seems to be bi-partisan near me. I have a friend that is very liberal and a friend that is very conservative, they want to kill each other 99% of the time, but the one place they agree is they don't want to buy EVs. My gf works with a woman who is a liberal activist, at every protest you can imagine, but she sends my gf a constant stream of links for articles saying how EVs are bad. My friend is trans and terrified of a change in the executive branch for personal reasons, but said she will never buy an EV. I'm not sure who is the mastermind behind EV fear in the U.S., but it is unlike anywhere else in the world. Politicians on both sides like votes more than they care about the long term environmental impacts of ICE, if this sentiment continues, the U.S. will keep kicking the can down the road. I fully expect us to be near the bottom of the ICE to EV transition list.

I travel often and work in international business, abroad it seems EV is fully embraced as the future. These types of anti-EV conversations just don't exist, this is a uniquely American view (maybe Russia too?).
We must run in different crowds. I hear some pushback, but it is pretty mild and I tend to get a lot of folks eager once I tell them about / show them my Lightning.
 

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sotek2345

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The one thing our governments are good at is kicking the can down the road. Like I said, I'd be happy to be wrong. But when I think about the level of tech required to meet the needs of medium and heavy duty trucks and what is currently in development. I just don't see it happening on the time scale CA wants it to happen. Time will tell.
For those who actually use the capacity of heavier duty trucks (i.e. commercial use applications), I suspect there will be some kind of waiver.

For those who buy heavy duty diesels to roll coal driving around town (I know way to many of these), I suspect they will see more and more restrictions about using them for personal use.
 

Zprime29

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For those who actually use the capacity of heavier duty trucks (i.e. commercial use applications), I suspect there will be some kind of waiver.

For those who buy heavy duty diesels to roll coal driving around town (I know way to many of these), I suspect they will see more and more restrictions about using them for personal use.
I would be pleased to see this.
 

FordLightningMan

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We must run in different crowds. I hear some pushback, but it is pretty mild and I tend to get a lot of folks eager once I tell them about / show them my Lightning.
I'm certainly pointing out small sample size types of observations, but I can say with some certainty this would extrapolate well for regional sentiment. You can even see it across states where some have huge credits for EV purchases and others have large penalties in the form of higher EV registration costs.

California will continue to drive the rest of the country with EV adoption. The question is if at a federal level the push for EVs slows down, will manufacturers make different vehicles for different regions? They already do this with some emissions parts, so the practice already exists with "do not sell in CA" vehicles, but it will be interesting how this look with EV vs. ICE in the medium term.
 

Texas Dan

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For those who actually use the capacity of heavier duty trucks (i.e. commercial use applications), I suspect there will be some kind of waiver.

For those who buy heavy duty diesels to roll coal driving around town (I know way to many of these), I suspect they will see more and more restrictions about using them for personal use.
You kind of have this backwards, it’s the manufacturers that are going to be penalized, not the purchasers. The manufacturers will have no choice but to dramatically increase the cost of ICE vehicles to cover the cost of the penalties. If the manufacturer is willing to produce it and the purchaser is willing and able to pay for it, there won’t be any restrictions on buying smoke belching ICEs, of course you might get a lot of tickets in cities that have smoking vehicle ordinances.
 

sotek2345

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You kind of have this backwards, it’s the manufacturers that are going to be penalized, not the purchasers. The manufacturers will have no choice but to dramatically increase the cost of ICE vehicles to cover the cost of the penalties. If the manufacturer is willing to produce it and the purchaser is willing and able to pay for it, there won’t be any restrictions on buying smoke belching ICEs, of course you might get a lot of tickets in cities that have smoking vehicle ordinances.
For the restrictions, I was thinking more about the aftermarket modifications to make them run dirty and put out think black smoke.

I agree on the costs and how that would flow through.
 

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cal

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EV dislike seems to be bi-partisan near me. I have a friend that is very liberal and a friend that is very conservative, they want to kill each other 99% of the time, but the one place they agree is they don't want to buy EVs. My gf works with a woman who is a liberal activist, at every protest you can imagine, but she sends my gf a constant stream of links for articles saying how EVs are bad. My friend is trans and terrified of a change in the executive branch for personal reasons, but said she will never buy an EV. I'm not sure who is the mastermind behind EV fear in the U.S., but it is unlike anywhere else in the world. Politicians on both sides like votes more than they care about the long term environmental impacts of ICE, if this sentiment continues, the U.S. will keep kicking the can down the road. I fully expect us to be near the bottom of the ICE to EV transition list.

I travel often and work in international business, abroad it seems EV is fully embraced as the future. These types of anti-EV conversations just don't exist, this is a uniquely American view (maybe Russia too?).
You know it’s funny when anti EV folk travel abroad. They see things in Norway or even Germany and marvel at the benefits and how good the EV world brings. But they won’t give up their gas. More like they resent feeling forced to do something better. Oh and they love believing all the FUD they see in the US news. Unfortunately we are being left behind. We have a fraction of the number of ev offerings they have in Europe or China.

They will come around. Just a matter of time.

I went to see the CT in person. Nothing special. BUT… I had stop my childish impulse to casually open my frunk and show off. Comments like “That’s not a funk” and then pointing at my Lightning and saying “That’s a real frunk” just kept springing into my mind. Or you know over time you’ll probably get used to that little frunk and it won’t seem nearly as small.

I mean when you have the truck with the biggest frunk ever created… It’s a hard to be humble.

Ok I’ll stop.
 

swajames

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Of course there has to a balance but Ford needs to build EVs that can compete with ALL the F-series models and configurations. The current F150 Lightning does not meet the needs of all or even most truck buyers. If the T3 reduces the price of building an EV truck I’m all for it but Ford mustn’t lose sight of the fact that they need a scalable F-series EV platform, not just another F150 EV.
Fundamentally disagree that the current Lightning does not meet the needs of most truck buyers. I'd argue it absolutely does. What it doesn't meet as well are certain specific edge cases. Ford has better data than any of us on its buyers and their actual use cases and I've no reason to doubt their claim that 95% of their customers drive less than 174 miles per day in their trucks.

Ford can not and should not solve for all the edge cases. When people say things like "I'd buy one if only it could do 500 miles between charges" and the like, it just makes me think about those "enthusiast drivers" extolling the virtues of the manual transmission in forums etc, but, curiously, never actually buying one.
 

Texas Dan

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Fundamentally disagree that the current Lightning does not meet the needs of most truck buyers. I'd argue it absolutely does. What it doesn't meet as well are certain specific edge cases. Ford has better data than any of us on its buyers and their actual use cases and I've no reason to doubt their claim that 95% of their customers drive less than 174 miles per day in their trucks.

Ford can not and should not solve for all the edge cases. When people say things like "I'd buy one if only it could do 500 miles between charges" and the like, it just makes me think about those "enthusiast drivers" extolling the virtues of the manual transmission in forums etc, but, curiously, never actually buying one.
The F150 comes in three different styles, Regular Cab, Super Cab and Supercrew Cab, the F150 comes with 5 1/2, 6 1/2 and 8 foot beds and the F150 is available as either 2WD or 4WD. The Lightning is only available is Supercrew Cab configuration with a 5 1/2 foot bed and 4WD. Do you really think everybody wants or can afford a Supercrew Can pickup with a 5 1/2 foot bed and 4WD?

There are over 200k Ford trucks listed on Autotrader, only 119k are 4WD crew cabs. 119k is a surprising number for a single configuration but the other 80k are hardly edge cases. Given that many of the other 80k are F250s or higher F-series that may be asked to haul heavy loads long distances on a regular basis, larger battery packs and faster charging speeds would be preferred..

Your reference to the 174 mile range is the same failed argument EV advocates have been touting for years. Most people buy what they want if they can afford it, not what they need. The only way you are going to get people to buy a truck with a 174 mile range is if you give them no other choice.
 
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Don't forget golf club carriers....
To be honest, being able to securely keep my clubs in the frunk has been really nice for hitting the range after work.
 

MM in SouthTX

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No one who hunts in South Texas could possibly consider an electric truck until all the ranches and hunting leases have 240V chargers at them. Same for much of rural America. The range is the killer. The ubiquitous destination Level 2 is the cure. Cars and trucks don't run 24 hours a day. They usually sit for at least 15 hours.

It's gonna take a lot more than 10 years to get everyone on board with having 240V chargers, but once that happens, maybe a transition to EV's is possible. In the meantime, mandates are ridiculous. They keep getting pushed out into the future.
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