Order bank opening date for Lightning

[MickeyAO]

VW is using LG Chem as the primary and Samsung as the secondary. They claim they can mix modules from both suppliers in the same pack.

I should also say that the VW ID3 pack is the first I have seen with an odd number (nine) of modules. The ID4 should be using the same pack as the ID3

Sponsored

 

[gorwell]

I thought the 80k/yr. was specifically based on SK innovations battery production capacity - for everything else Ford can build like crazy - they make about a million F series a year.

BlueovalSK (partnership between Ford and SK innovations) can produce about 40GWh of batteries per year now (ramp up to more). I believe VW is also using SK Innovation so I am not sure how much of that Ford gets - 50k/yr Mach-e's would use about 5 GWhs of that. 80k Lightnings would use ~12 GWhs

I'm not aware of BlueovalSK kicking in until " mid-decade"... Maybe I missed something, but the press release seemed pretty specific to the "start date":

"Ford and SK Innovation announced today they have signed an MoU to create a joint venture – to be called BlueOvalSK – to produce approximately 60 GWh annually in traction battery cells and array modules, starting mid-decade, with potential to expand."

What I believe your 40GWh "now" number comes from is just SK Innovation's current capacity of production. That capacity, as far as I'm aware, is not just for Ford, but all SK buyers. BlueOvalSK would be be for Ford's use. .

https://www.electrive.com/2021/05/21/ford-ski-to-launch-battery-joint-venture/

" SK Innovation currently has a global production capacity of 40 GWh. The group has repeatedly mentioned a target of 125 GWh for 2025, but is now revising this upwards"

Ford will be constrained (likely heavily) until BlueovalSK does kick in.

 

[Smokewagun]

FWIW my reservation was June 19th and IF (big if) the reservation numbers are sequential that puts me around 203,700.

I realize its all hypothetical and YMMV but figured I'd put it in perspective.

How do you figure your position? I reserved just as the reveal started. What numbers in the reservation number indicate place in line?

 

[SteffanG]

How do you figure your position? I reserved just as the reveal started. What numbers in the reservation number indicate place in line?

There is no definate way to know exactly where you are as they were asigning numbers from different servers. I have a close to the same number as someone that reserved the day after the reveal, but I reserved within 20 minutes of it going live.
If you reserved within 12 hours of the reveal, you know that you are guaranteed to be within the first 20k reservations.

You can also ask your dealer that you chose what position you are in (when I asked a month ago, I am 6 out of 66)

 

[greenne]

There is no definate way to know exactly where you are as they were asigning numbers from different servers. I have a close to the same number as someone that reserved the day after the reveal, but I reserved within 20 minutes of it going live.
If you reserved within 12 hours of the reveal, you know that you are guaranteed to be within the first 20k reservations.

You can also ask your dealer that you chose what position you are in (when I asked a month ago, I am 6 out of 66)

I don't know for sure so don't hold me to it...but appears like the first numbers are #108xxxx(possibly 10800000??) starting on the reveal date and go to 110xxxx in July. If you look at the reservation spreadsheet they *appear* to be linear, with the 108's in late May, then 109s, then 110. If you simply subtract(10800000 from 11000000 then I estimatemy # is 200,000 'ish from the first number in this forum's database.

I imagine there will be some leeway as I don't know how Ford is going to regulate when the order bank opens. (Will they open all these reservations at once? Will they stagger them?). Also, with orders they may do some configurations(i.e. trim) before others depending upon availability of supplies. Also not all reservations lead to orders... some estimates put the number as 50-70% lead to actual orders.

I wouldn't take anything specific, but it should give you a rough idea where you are in line

Nathan

 

[greenne]

How do you figure your position? I reserved just as the reveal started. What numbers in the reservation number indicate place in line?

It appears like reservation started around #10800000

 

[sotek2345]

I don't know for sure so don't hold me to it...but appears like the first numbers are #108xxxx(possibly 10800000??) starting on the reveal date and go to 110xxxx in July. If you look at the reservation spreadsheet they *appear* to be linear, with the 108's in late May, then 109s, then 110. If you simply subtract(10800000 from 11000000 then I estimatemy # is 200,000 'ish from the first number in this forum's database.

I imagine there will be some leeway as I don't know how Ford is going to regulate when the order bank opens. (Will they open all these reservations at once? Will they stagger them?). Also, with orders they may do some configurations(i.e. trim) before others depending upon availability of supplies. Also not all reservations lead to orders... some estimates put the number as 50-70% lead to actual orders.

I wouldn't take anything specific, but it should give you a rough idea where you are in line

Nathan

Note: Ford's reservation system isn't per model, so that is all reservations for all models (Bronco and Mach-e making up the majority of non-Lightning reservations). We can't know the true numbers, but it is something less than a raw count would give.

 

[greenne]

Note: Ford's reservation system isn't per model, so that is all reservations for all models (Bronco and Mach-e making up the majority of non-Lightning reservations). We can't know the true numbers, but it is something less than a raw count would give.

That's good to know. I wouldn't get fixated on specific numbers... but should give you are idea. If Bronco and Mach-e orders remain a constant.. then it gives us a rough idea how things are progressing along.

But thanks for the info...I did not know it was for ALL models.

 

[Smokewagun]

…I estimatemy # is 200,000 'ish from the first number in this forum's database…

Hmmmm. You might rethink that. There aren’t 200,000 reservations for the Lightning yet. This would have to be out of ALL reservations in the complete hopper… Bronco, Mach-E, Maverick, etc.

 

[Maxx]

Does it matter when you convert a reservation to order? In other words if I convert a month after someone whose reservation number is right behind me, would I fall behind or hold my spot?

I am trying to see if My dealer try to pull something during conversion that rubs me the wrong way, is it too late to switch dealers? Would it actually have an impact on when I get mine? Or if I am off line for several weeks and convert after 100,000 people do, does my 30K spot change to 100K spot?

 

[sotek2345]

Does it matter when you convert a reservation to order? In other words if I convert a month after someone whose reservation number is right behind me, would I fall behind or hold my spot?

I am trying to see if My dealer try to pull something during conversion that rubs me the wrong way, is it too late to switch dealers? Would it actually have an impact on when I get mine? Or if I am off line for several weeks and convert after 100,000 people do, does my 30K spot change to 100K spot?

I don't think anyone knows for sure, but my dealer told me that getting the order in ASAP is key to getting the truck as fast as possible.

That said, if my dealer trys to pull anything I will switch and take the delay. So far they say they won't and are being good with my Mach-e order.

 

[Sapphire]

I’m planning to give my local dealer one chance, and if they pull anything I’ll move to Granger. I’m tempted to move to Granger now, but it’s a 5 hour drive and I’m not sure my trade in will make it that far (although I might just donate it nearby instead).

 

[EaglesPDX]

What numbers in the reservation number indicate place in line?

You can probably get a rough idea looking at your reservation date and the reservations totals by date.

Sponsored