70mph range test in Lightning Pro Standard Battery (State of Charge - Tom)

[shutterbug]

I was at an employee only event and they had "Lightning Specialists" there answering questions. I asked if the Lightning was profitable out of the gate. They said the Pro is a "loss leader" and they hope to turn a profit with the Ford Pro services directed at fleet buyers that purchase them.

"Loss Leader" could mean they lose money on every additional unit. It could also mean that they aren't making as much money to meet their goals. I still think that the original price of $40K made them profitable when they originally announced last year.

And that was before it launched. Look at the inflation in the prices of the battery materials. The Mach-E ER battery was slated to get an increase of $5000 before orders were halted.

Inflation is a separate issue. Even without knowing any pertinent details, I expect Ford to bump up Lightning prices 10-15% for 2023.

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[ChrisCon]

Totally fine with them restricting it and it makes sense, but every reviewer makes no mention that it's almost impossible to get as a retail customer.

I could have purchased one, but like many early adopters, I want the technology and not a barebones truck. I'll being adding pros to my fleet though. The base bronco is also a "good value", but I wouldn't want that either. I suspect that if the pro was available to everyone without restricting the trim , it would likely only account for 20 percent of sales at most instead of the rumored 5% now.

My dealer has delivered three pros already and none of them were wave 1 buyers.

 

[astricklin]

I've seen many times that Ford says the XL truck was like 5-10% of retail sales. I'd imagine that the lightning would skew even more heavily towards higher trims if they left it completely open and let everyone order any configuration. Sure, it seems like a lot of people on the internet want the base truck but overall there's a small percentage of orders represented here. Early adopters are going to want the technology. Especially blue cruise and things that are available on most other EVs.

I do recall hearing the 20% figure for pro lightnings being built but yes, the vast majority of those are going to fleet sales. For a lot of fleets, EVs make a ton of sense and I'd imagine there's a lot of demand in that sector. Ford is planning to make up the margin there with selling fleet services. Then on top of that they can sell EV credits like Tesla does. I'm curious if the seeking is credits is factoring into the "lightning line is profitable" equation. And if so, as they ramp production are they going to be able to use that to keep the price down?

 

[greenne]

Did anyone notice that the Lariat got much higher efficiency than when Tom ran his full test? They drove 214 miles and the Lariat ER had 30% left. That would extrapolate to 306 miles of range and ~ 2.33mi/kWh.

I saw that too.

It also matches the previous check ins with the driver at 75%, 50% and 25%-- at these times the ER was at 83%, 66%, and 48%

From the video:

SR Battery %/ ER Battery %/ Miles
----------------------------

75%/83%/55mi
50%/66%/107mi
25%/48%/161mi

0%/30%/214mi -- End of test

 

[LightningShow]

I saw that too.

It also matches the previous check ins with the driver at 75%, 50% and 25%-- at these times the ER was at 83%, 66%, and 48%

From the video:

SR Battery %/ ER Battery %/ Miles
----------------------------

75%/83%/55mi
50%/66%/107mi
25%/48%/161mi

0%/30%/214mi -- End of test

Yeah, it doesn’t make sense. Tom didn’t mention it so maybe there was something else going on, like his buddy was drafting to maximize efficiency? The numbers they gave showed the Lariat ER was consistently 0.1-0.2 mi/kwh more efficient through each leg.

@tommolog do you have any feedback on this?

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