Battery pack longevity

[DadBald]

What's everyone's thoughts on battery pack longevity? I'm not talking about degradation; that's normal. I'm talking about time or miles until failure.

Take a look at this article: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ck-modules-in-model-s-doesnt-work-169429.html

Ford has a 100k mi, 8yr warranty on the battery, claiming anything less than 70% capacity by that time is out of spec and will get replaced. Seems fair and pretty standard for EV's.

But this vehicle is going to be a major expense for me and my family, and I'm a little concerned about a $25k expense (or more) coming up in year 9 - I hope the vehicle will last longer than that.

I had a Honda Civic Hybrid whose battery pack completely bricked at 185k mi. Decent life, but I was expecting much more from a Honda. We scrapped the car, and it was only a $4,500 replacement cost.

It's unclear what the value of the Lightning will be in year 9 (or, say, 125,000 mi), but it's not out of the question to consider a battery pack replacement might be around the value of the vehicle or more.

Curious everyone's take on this.

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[D-Pa]

What's everyone's thoughts on battery pack longevity? I'm not talking about degradation; that's normal. I'm talking about time or miles until failure.

Take a look at this article: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ck-modules-in-model-s-doesnt-work-169429.html

Ford has a 100k mi, 8yr warranty on the battery, claiming anything less than 70% capacity by that time is out of spec and will get replaced. Seems fair and pretty standard for EV's.

But this vehicle is going to be a major expense for me and my family, and I'm a little concerned about a $25k expense (or more) coming up in year 9 - I hope the vehicle will last longer than that.

I had a Honda Civic Hybrid whose battery pack completely bricked at 185k mi. Decent life, but I was expecting much more from a Honda. We scrapped the car, and it was only a $4,500 replacement cost.

It's unclear what the value of the Lightning will be in year 9 (or, say, 125,000 mi), but it's not out of the question to consider a battery pack replacement might be around the value of the vehicle or more.

Curious everyone's take on this.

I was concerned as well...but I figure battery technology will be so far advance in 2-3 years, that I'll probably just trade it in for a newer one.

 

[Vulnox]

Yeah, there is no telling. I mean engines and transmissions die at 100k miles on vehicles and they aren't free to replace either. Get a vehicle planning on things to fail. I will say that with the rate of battery price drops over the last ten years, and it will be an even more exponential drop over the next ten years due to so many companies sourcing them and driving down economies of scale, I think there is a nearly 0% chance of the battery being $25k or even half that in 9 years. The only way I could conceive of it being that much would be if there simply weren't any around to source.

But being an F-150, which will probably have more on the market in the next few years than Honda sold hybrids since inception, odds are high that there will be rebuilt batteries, or junkyard salvaged battery packs or whatever that can be used as replacements.

I am seeing stories already of people getting $25k replacement quotes from Tesla for their battery once out of warranty, and new companies have come up that buy up supposedly "Dead" packs and salvage the cells that are still fully functional. They use those cells to rebuild customer packs and do it for a fraction of the cost. I think the story I just saw today or yesterday said that $25k replacement was $4k and the Tesla is running good as new.

And that's just how things are now, in ten years there will be more companies doing that work and lower costs. And since it's Ford and not Tesla, who has been infamous for poor service part availability, I expect it won't be that hard to source new cells.

Because the main thing to keep in mind is that outside of a major car accident and fire, the battery packs are never just scrapped in full. Usually a failure will be due to a cell package inside the battery pack, and there are usually numerous packages, that is failing. Those packages are easy to replace and only a fraction of the entire pack cost.

It's less engine replacement and more camshaft replacement.

 

[DadBald]

Yeah, there is no telling. I mean engines and transmissions die at 100k miles on vehicles and they aren't free to replace either.

*snip*

I am seeing stories already of people getting $25k replacement quotes from Tesla for their battery once out of warranty, and new companies have come up that buy up supposedly "Dead" packs and salvage the cells that are still fully functional. They use those cells to rebuild customer packs and do it for a fraction of the cost. I think the story I just saw today or yesterday said that $25k replacement was $4k and the Tesla is running good as new.

Well, you could replace a whole engine and transmission together and still come out half as expensive as that battery pack.

The article I quoted explains that this approach is not feasible - the BMS isn't capable of handling mismatched cells like that. Somehow this company claims they did come up with a way to make it work, which just confuses the whole matter (bias, skepticism, etc).

Good points on battery value. I still need to wrap my mind around all of that. Gonna be interesting to see what actually happens either way.

 

[corradoborg]

The article I quoted explains that this approach is not feasible - the BMS isn't capable of handling mismatched cells like that. Somehow this company claims they did come up with a way to make it work, which just confuses the whole matter (bias, skepticism, etc).

Retired BEV batteries are already being recycled into home batteries, and home batteries into commercial power storage. An aftermarket refurbished BEV battery economy will arise, and if manufacturers' BMSes aren't allowing those refurbished batteries to work properly in their cars, I'm certain there will eventually be some legislation to force them to loosen up.

 

[Vulnox]

Retired BEV batteries are already being recycled into home batteries, and home batteries into commercial power storage. An aftermarket refurbished BEV battery economy will arise, and if manufacturers' BMSes aren't allowing those refurbished batteries to work properly in their cars, I'm certain there will eventually be some legislation to force them to loosen up.

Yeah, in the end, we are talking about 9 years in the future which we have almost no way to really account for. We can't look at the last ten years of EVs, because at least 8 of those years had almost no real participation from other OEMs outside of Tesla. Ford had the Focus Electric (which is great, we have one) and some PHEVS, GM had the Bolt and Volt, it was all pretty "meh" in really tackling the market. The Mach E and especially the Lightning are going to be like strapping booster rockets to an already accelerating market, not even counting that Rivian just made their first truck delivery and so on.

The next ten years of EV development and support are going to make the previous ten years look tame, and thanks largely to Tesla, the last ten years were pretty noteworthy as it was. I have confidence battery prices and issues with replacing cells will be overcome. Or as corradoborg noted, you may lose the pack, but someone will give you some price for it for downcycling for home or commercial use and you can put that towards a hopefully less expensive battery.

If you aren't comfortable with whether the above will come true, just don't get a Lightning. There is nothing lost by being cautious in this case and despite the marketing, most EVs in one way or another have their rough spots. For Tesla it's their after sales service and parts. For Ford and others it will be charging network as has been shown over and over to not be as easy and plentiful as we would like in all cases. You need to go into it with the knowledge that there are no guarantees and be comfortable with that. For now. It will all get better.

 

[DadBald]

Sure. I'm fairly certain I'll be moving forward with it, I just don't want to be irresponsible with our finances. I also like to overthink everything, so thanks for the entertainment

 

[Kiggulak]

Sure. I'm fairly certain I'll be moving forward with it, I just don't want to be irresponsible with our finances. I also like to overthink everything, so thanks for the entertainment

My 2013 Ford Focus Electric utilizes a different logic. It never allows the user to use 100% of the battery and when hooked to Level 2 charging will electronically "swap" cells in and out of the active use range. I could see this because the original owner charged and drove the car on L1 trickle charging to the point that there was reduced range on the guess o meter every third day or so for my weekly overnight charging on Level 2. Also with only 80 miles total range on the good cells and 60 miles on the heavily used cells it was pretty clear when I got in to start my day what active cells I had for the day. Also while the Focus has active liquid cooling on the pack it only works when plugged in ... so when my car sits in the South Florida sun all day (105F+ on the dash temp) at work I frequently get messages when I start it up that "It's hot outside ... you should plug your car in." I'm sure this hot storage without being plugged in factored into the demise of my battery.

The pack quit on me within the 8yr 100,000mi warranty (at 7 yrs 10.5 mo). Now I have a refurb battery ($22K repair and 1 month at the dealer) with a 1 year parts/service warranty on the pack and plan to trade it in on my Lightning we shall see where I fall in the production queue. My Focus is back to 80 mile GOM range everyday and no hints of a Stop Safely Now warning. Also my employer put in L2 Chargepoint Chargers so now I can plug in during the hot months without putting adverse wear and tear on my refurb pack.

Not sure what if any battery logic Ford uses in the Mach-E. Tesla style controls to the user or behind the scenes code in the Battery Charge Management System. Is the battery cooling more active to help prolong life over range or does it only cool when plugged in like the Focus? I can ask these questions at the Daytona Event but I doubt the sales folks at the event will know or be able to articulate these details.

Again leasing the Lightning makes the most sense when battery replacement is ~50% of the retail for Lightning Pro using the Focus Electric smaller pack, or doing the balloon payment plan where you can choose 3yrs down the line to keep what you have (and know the wear and tear) vs what new battery chemistry/mgmt technology is in play.

 

[MannyFrescoSC]

The battery pack is modular and individual packs can be swapped out. I’m sure by year 8 any swaps with better tech batteries would actually make the Lightning BETTER at a lower cost.

 

[astricklin]

The ford pack is built a lot different than the Tesla pack.
Also Tesla themselves have released data showing there is an average 10-15% degradation over 200k miles. I wouldn't worry too much about degradation.
On top of this, how far do you drive daily? 100 miles? 50? You could lose 60% of the ER pack and still have 100ish miles that's going to work for the majority of your driving days.

Of you are still really that concerned about it, do a lease of the 'options' financing and walk away after 3 years and get a new one. 2025 they are planning to have a new bev truck platform.

 

[metroshot]

....
Again leasing the Lightning makes the most sense when battery replacement is ~50% of the retail for Lightning Pro using the Focus Electric smaller pack, or doing the balloon payment plan where you can choose 3yrs down the line to keep what you have (and know the wear and tear) vs what new battery chemistry/mgmt technology is in play.

Agree on leasing a first year model - especially a new gen EV.

I leased the first year 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV with a 50 mile range on EV and love it. So much that I am buying her out after lease end - keeping her at least 7 more years (total battery warranty is 10 years).

As for the Lightning due to the new nature of the design, I'd rather lease the first 3 years and see how she is afterwards - keep her or turn her in....

 

[Roy2001]

It would be hard to park F150 in garage, and summer in central valley of California is super hot. It would not only impact the charge time (because it needs to cool down the battery pack during charging), but also impact the battery life for sure.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

Agree on leasing a first year model - especially a new gen EV.

I leased the first year 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV with a 50 mile range on EV and love it. So much that I am buying her out after lease end - keeping her at least 7 more years (total battery warranty is 10 years).

As for the Lightning due to the new nature of the design, I'd rather lease the first 3 years and see how she is afterwards - keep her or turn her in....

However, leasing erases the Tax Credit. With the passage in the house this morning that is potentially $12,500 that can be taken off the sale price at the dealer (not something you need to claim on your taxes).

Source (copied from user greenne): https://waysandmeans.house.gov/site.../Section by Section Subtitle F, G, H, & J.pdf

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[RonTCat]

What's everyone's thoughts on battery pack longevity? I'm not talking about degradation; that's normal. I'm talking about time or miles until failure.

Take a look at this article: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ck-modules-in-model-s-doesnt-work-169429.html

Ford has a 100k mi, 8yr warranty on the battery, claiming anything less than 70% capacity by that time is out of spec and will get replaced. Seems fair and pretty standard for EV's.

But this vehicle is going to be a major expense for me and my family, and I'm a little concerned about a $25k expense (or more) coming up in year 9 - I hope the vehicle will last longer than that.

I had a Honda Civic Hybrid whose battery pack completely bricked at 185k mi. Decent life, but I was expecting much more from a Honda. We scrapped the car, and it was only a $4,500 replacement cost.

It's unclear what the value of the Lightning will be in year 9 (or, say, 125,000 mi), but it's not out of the question to consider a battery pack replacement might be around the value of the vehicle or more.

Curious everyone's take on this.

In 2021, battery packs are about $100-120/kWh to make. So for a Mustang Mach-E ER, for example, that's about $10-12K.

Fast forward 9 years to 2030... battery production is likely 10 times that of 2021. Pure manufacturing scale and battery design improvement should push costs down... maybe to $40/kWh. Now your replacement battery costs $4K.

 

[astricklin]

It would be hard to park F150 in garage, and summer in central valley of California is super hot. It would not only impact the charge time (because it needs to cool down the battery pack during charging), but also impact the battery life for sure.

I am confident that Ford has ensured the battery cooling system can handle a hot garage. Much more heat is generated in the battery during highway speed driving.

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