Jim Farley: F-150 Lightning Sold Out For 2-3 Years, Reservations Stopped at 200k

[Maquis]

I’m happy to wait for the next generation of battery technology anyway.

There will always be a next generation battery technology on the horizon. It‘s like the sign in a bar “Free beer tomorrow!”

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[Nick Gerteis]

There will always be a next generation battery technology on the horizon. It‘s like the sign in a bar “Free beer tomorrow!”

Lol! At least in a bar nobody is using that as an excuse to not have a few tonight as well. My personal, well researched observation.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I’m happy to wait for the next generation of battery technology anyway.

You'll be waiting a very long time. Tesla is still using 18650 cells originally rolled out by Panasonic in 1994, 28 years ago, with slight incremental improvements, in its most recent Plaid Model S and Model X versions. Its pending 4680 battery is still lithium ion tech, nothing especially new, with some incremental packaging and management changes, such as tabless cylindrical format that moves the needle a little - but is still very heavy, with energy concentration that is a tiny fraction of that found in gasoline, pound for pound. The fact remains that a 1,500-pound Tesla battery has the same contained energy as about three gallons of regular gasoline. And therein lies the challenge for EV's that still hasn't been solved - weight. My Tesla MX SUV weighs 5,700 pounds, more than my 2021 Supercrew King Ranch Powerboost F-150. There have been rumors of battery tech breakthrough every year for decades, but there has been nothing revolutionary in nearly 30 years - the latest Tesla shares its cells with a 25-year-old Makita tool battery. It has 7,104 cells in the pack, and is moving to fewer cells in the next iteration, with a larger format, but is having development and manufacturing issues, a primary cause for the delay in rolling the Cybertruck.

 

[bryan995]

Also keep in mind that with the next iteration of battery tech, they are not going to just magically double the range. They will just use less cells and save on cost

300-500 miles of range is about the sweet spot.

Though I’d argue that 250 miles of range meets the daily use for 99% of people for 99% of days. Anything larger is inefficient cost wise.

 

[beatle]

While it's true that 250-300 miles of range should be good enough for most people on most days, trucks will push the need for higher capacities for fringe use cases. Some people actually tow a lot with their trucks, and you really can't have enough capacity for that use case.

That said, it'd be nice if the standard pack delivered 300 miles and the ER was 400. Though I have always opted for the largest battery I could afford, I know I won't be towing much of anything with my truck, at least for very long, and 250-300 miles after degradation has been good enough for road trips for me. My current car is rated for 242 miles and only in very rare cases have I really wanted more than that. Increased availability of DCFC, faster DCFC, and more destination chargers will mitigate the need for super range even further.

 

[Wvmtneer]

There will always be a next generation battery technology on the horizon. It‘s like the sign in a bar “Free beer tomorrow!”

You'll be waiting a very long time. Tesla is still using 18650 cells originally rolled out by Panasonic in 1994, 28 years ago, with slight incremental improvements, in its most recent Plaid Model S and Model X versions. Its pending 4680 battery is still lithium ion tech, nothing especially new, with some incremental packaging and management changes, such as tabless cylindrical format that moves the needle a little - but is still very heavy, with energy concentration that is a tiny fraction of that found in gasoline, pound for pound. The fact remains that a 1,500-pound Tesla battery has the same contained energy as about three gallons of regular gasoline. And therein lies the challenge for EV's that still hasn't been solved - weight. My Tesla MX SUV weighs 5,700 pounds, more than my 2021 Supercrew King Ranch Powerboost F-150. There have been rumors of battery tech breakthrough every year for decades, but there has been nothing revolutionary in nearly 30 years - the latest Tesla shares its cells with a 25-year-old Makita tool battery. It has 7,104 cells in the pack, and is moving to fewer cells in the next iteration, with a larger format, but is having development and manufacturing issues, a primary cause for the delay in rolling the Cybertruck.

Also keep in mind that with the next iteration of battery tech, they are not going to just magically double the range. They will just use less cells and save on cost

300-500 miles of range is about the sweet spot.

Though I’d argue that 250 miles of range meets the daily use for 99% of people for 99% of days. Anything larger is inefficient cost wise.

Is solid state battery technology a myth? I keep reading 3-5 years, so maybe.

 

[greenne]

I guess doubling and redoubling production capacity doesn't mean a whole lot if you start with such small numbers. If they only make 15k this year (7 months) and 25k next year (12 months) another redoubling will only get them to 50k the following year. That's 100k which is about on par with the 47% conversion rate. I'm guessing the rate will be even less. Some will wait another year, but I'm guessing a lot won't wait two.

Ford has said they wanted to be producing at Lightning's at the rate of "150k per year" by mid 2023. I don't know if they have changed this outlook.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-f-150-lightning-production-150000-units.html

 

[hellb0y]

I have a couple year old cyber truck reservation and have doubts it'll ever be built.

I reserved and ordered a Lightning but also have a CT on reserve - I do not expect the CT will be available before 2024 and it will cost significantly more, I am thinking it will be more in line with Riving/GMC Hummer money than Lightning money. The war certainly doesn't help the situation...

 

[bryan995]

While it's true that 250-300 miles of range should be good enough for most people on most days, trucks will push the need for higher capacities for fringe use cases. Some people actually tow a lot with their trucks, and you really can't have enough capacity for that use case.

That said, it'd be nice if the standard pack delivered 300 miles and the ER was 400. Though I have always opted for the largest battery I could afford, I know I won't be towing much of anything with my truck, at least for very long, and 250-300 miles after degradation has been good enough for road trips for me. My current car is rated for 242 miles and only in very rare cases have I really wanted more than that. Increased availability of DCFC, faster DCFC, and more destination chargers will mitigate the need for super range even further.

Or, the truck battery will stay fixed in terms of range. And soon the trailers/loads will come with their own supplemental battery to offset the hit to range. I think the market for super high range EV trucks solely used for heavy towing is very very small. Wrong tool for the job. That's a job for diesel. And diesel is not going anywhere for quite some time.

We shouldn't kid ourselves. The F150 lighting is a 10 mile round trip to home depot with the family in tow vehicle

Though with the onboard 9kw, I can also see it being used as a fantastic jobsite vehicle (mobile groomer, mobile car detailer, mobile power washer, mobile carpet cleaner, carpenter etc.)

 

[Maquis]

Is solid state battery technology a myth? I keep reading 3-5 years, so maybe.

Just like thorium fusion reactors have been 5 years away for the past 25 years.

 

[jaykoolzboy]

Just like thorium fusion reactors have been 5 years away for the past 25 years.

Toyota will have their first SSD Battery in 2025 (hybrid car first) , Quantumscape will have the first SSD battery for VW group in 2024 (Full EV). The product is there now, but need to figure out how to keep down the cost and mass produce them.

If SSD battery can be a thing (I'm giving it a 70 percent of the chance it will happen before 2025) , they will have the same impact as SSD for the IT world (to me the biggest speed booster for all the IT devices)

 

[VTbuckeye]

Toyota will have their first SSD Battery in 2025 (hybrid car first) , Quantumscape will have the first SSD battery for VW group in 2024 (Full EV). The product is there now, but need to figure out how to keep down the cost and mass produce them.

If SSD battery can be a thing (I'm giving it a 70 percent of the chance it will happen before 2025) , they will have the same impact as SSD for the IT world (to me the biggest speed booster for all the IT devices)

Hopefully these batteries arrive soon. Even if it is 2025 when they first arrive, it will have been 15ish years of lithium batteries (2008 first Tesla roadster, 2012 first model s, Nissan leaf 2010)and zero years of solid state batteries. Solid state may be the future, but it will take it a while to become the predominant battery variant and it will be EVs as well as other tech fighting for the scarce resources initially. Our trucks will likely have outdated technology, but not truly obsolete tech, even when they are 5+years old.

 

[RLXXI]

Hopefully these batteries arrive soon. Even if it is 2025 when they first arrive, it will have been 15ish years of lithium batteries (2008 first Tesla roadster, 2012 first model s, Nissan leaf 2010)and zero years of solid state batteries. Solid state may be the future, but it will take it a while to become the predominant battery variant and it will be EVs as well as other tech fighting for the scarce resources initially. Our trucks will likely have outdated technology, but not truly obsolete tech, even when they are 5+years old.

You'll see SS batteries in cell phones, laptops, smart watches etc, long before you'll see them in EV's.

 

[hellb0y]

Toyota will have their first SSD Battery in 2025 (hybrid car first) , Quantumscape will have the first SSD battery for VW group in 2024 (Full EV). The product is there now, but need to figure out how to keep down the cost and mass produce them.

If SSD battery can be a thing (I'm giving it a 70 percent of the chance it will happen before 2025) , they will have the same impact as SSD for the IT world (to me the biggest speed booster for all the IT devices)

SSD won’t hit mainstream right away…likely 2030, assuming they can resolve issues that exist with the cells today

 

[jaykoolzboy]

SSD won’t hit mainstream right away…likely 2030, assuming they can resolve issues that exist with the cells today

I believe with the way EV is going , the development will be much sooner than that. It's going to be revolutionary.

Btw we are going to have the same stable (Kona EV / F150L , killer non-Tesla combination IMO)

Kona EV is so underrated.

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