Why isn’t the Lightning getting more of the gas F150 market?

[broncoaz]

Price, perception, propaganda, proprietary parts (without competitive parts) property taxes, EV taxes, labeled as an eco-terrorist/eco-nazi/liberal, no charging at your apartment/condo/home/work, insurance rates are higher, you wear Depends Diapers with the 30% greater absorbency so you can drive 400+ miles without stopping so you can win the iron butt/iron bladder award in your family (pissing off your dog, the kids and wife), confusing charging infrastructure and exploitative pricing at "High Speed" DC chargers, many that aren't maintained, you are damaging the local economy by killing bubbas garage that has been supporting your junkers for years with unnecessary oil changes, belts, batteries, and tire air changes plus a tax for "shop supplies and HAZMAT disposal", you still own a clamshell phone and don't know how to use it, your ADHD doesn't allow you to sit for 30 minutes to charge your car, the government excludes you from any economic incentives because you are successful, you don't want the government telling you what you can drive, you miss engine sound, you can't repair it with a Chiltons/Haynes repair manual and "My dad is a tv repair man, he's got this ultimate set of tools, i can fix it"-Jeff Spicoli, style of maintenance. Resell value similar to a used iPhone, you tow more than 100 miles a day, you are in the military and get deployed to AZZCrackistan on short notice to fight for ???, you don't want 3rd world country children mining your fuel, and the ultimate reason... how much does that battery cost to replace? Confusing answers on range, you have to answer in caveman, "On about 4 gallons of gas I can go 250 miles or about 65 MPG"

Other than those things I love my Lightning.

	Reason	Description	Interpretation
1	Range anxiety is a genuine concern	Fear of running out of battery power before reaching a charging station.	Many EVs have a shorter range than gasoline cars, leading to anxiety about long trips or unfamiliar areas. Most gas-powered cars boast a range of 300-720 miles on average, while EVs only deliver 150-300 miles between charges.
2	Charging times can be prohibitive	Recharging an electric car takes significantly longer than refueling a gasoline car.	While DC fast chargers can provide a quicker boost of just 30 minutes, they’re less common and charging at home can take hours. This can be inconvenient for busy schedules or long commutes.
3	Higher initial cost	Electric vehicles tend to be more expensive than comparable gasoline-powered models.	The upfront cost of an electric car can be a significant barrier for many drivers, despite potential savings on fuel and maintenance in the long run. The average new gas-powered car cost in the US was only about $48,000 as of 2023. In contrast, EVs was approximately $60,000.
4	Limited model options	Fewer variety of electric vehicle models compared to gasoline-powered cars.	The selection of EVs is still growing, but currently offers fewer choices in terms of body style, performance, and features compared to the vast selection of gasoline vehicles. For context, the US market currently only has 40 EV models as of 2023.
5	Costly home charging installation	Installing a home charging station can be expensive.	While not essential for everyone, having a home charger can significantly improve convenience. However, the cost of installation can be a deterrent for some drivers. It starts at $1,000 to $2,500, excluding the potential home electrical upgrades to support the installation.
6	Depreciation rates	Uncertainty surrounding the resale value of electric vehicles.	Since EVs are a relatively new technology, their long-term resale value remains unclear. This can be a concern for drivers who trade in their cars frequently. As of today, EVs lose around 52% of its total value within 3 years on average. Meanwhile, traditional ICE-powered cars only lose 39%.
7	Overpromises in EV market: Self-driving features and true range concerns	Marketing hype around features like self-driving capabilities and unrealistic range estimates.	Some EV marketing can be misleading, exaggerating the capabilities of self-driving technology or overstating the car’s true range under real-world conditions.
8	Scarce second-hand market	Limited availability of used electric vehicles.	The used EV market is still in its early stages, offering fewer options and potentially higher prices compared to used gasoline cars. Moreover, EVs’ fast depreciation makes it hard for buyers to spot a used unit at a bargain price.
9	High maintenance and repair costs	While some maintenance costs may be lower, repairs for EVs can be expensive.	Electric vehicles require less routine maintenance, but specialized repairs, particularly for the battery, can be quite costly. In addition, the EV industry currently lacks qualified technicians to support the transition.
10	Inadequate public charging infrastructure	Lack of readily available and reliable public charging stations, especially outside of urban areas.	The availability of public charging stations varies greatly by region. In rural areas or on long trips, finding a charger can be difficult or time-consuming. To address this concern, the US government invested $100 million to expand the nationwide charging network. However, EV drivers frequently find broken or occupied charge points.
11	Expensive battery replacement costs	Replacing an electric vehicle battery can be very expensive.	While EV batteries are designed to last for many years, eventual replacement can be a significant cost factor. Battery replacements starts at $4,000 to $20,000, depending on the model and battery type.
12	Environmental impact of battery production	The production of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs can have a negative environmental impact.	Concerns exist about the mining of raw materials and the energy used to manufacture EV batteries.
13	Dependency on non-renewable energy	If the electricity used to charge EVs comes from fossil fuels, it reduces the environmental benefit.	The environmental impact of EVs depends heavily on the source of the electricity used to charge them.
14	Limited recycling infrastructure for EV batteries	Lack of established and efficient systems for recycling EV batteries at the end of their lifespan.	Developing a robust recycling infrastructure for EV batteries is crucial to minimize environmental impact.
15	Sensitivity to extreme weather	Cold weather can significantly reduce the range of electric vehicles.	Extreme cold temperatures can decrease battery efficiency, impacting the driving range of EVs. Previous studies suggest that battery range tend to decline by up to 31% in extreme weather. Moreover, popular li-ion batteries function well within 60 to 80°F. They require more energy in colder climates to initiate the charging process.
16	Charging stations can be a pain to deal with	Inconvenient location, broken chargers, long wait times, and compatibility issues can be frustrating.	The longer EV charging time continues to be an issue for most owners and potential buyers. The process substantially extends an already long travel, with hitting an 80% charge alone taking a very long time. A full charge for long trips could take up to 3 hours.
17	People are afraid of change	Hesitation to adopt a new technology and adapt to a different driving experience.	Some drivers are simply comfortable with what they know and may be hesitant to embrace the changes required with electric vehicles.
18	Political associations	Perceived political bias towards or against electric vehicles influencing some drivers’ choices.	The political landscape can influence some drivers’ decisions, with some associating EVs with certain political stances.
19	Skepticism around technological security	Concerns about the security of electric vehicle technology and potential hacking vulnerabilities.	As with any connected device, security concerns exist regarding the software and systems used in EVs. Some of its potential vulnerabilities include remote hacking, data privacy, and ransomware and malware.
20	People are not shopping for cars, yet	Shifting transportation habits with a growing focus on ride-sharing and alternative options.	Not everyone is looking to buy a car at any given time. Some commuters may not be planning yet to buy their own cars as they prefer other alternatives like ride-sharing or public vehicles. Meanwhile, most car owners tend to only replace their units when they need to, not necessarily because of the latest technology.

I use the resale value of a three generation old iPhone statement all the time. I used it with the finance person at the dealership when leasing my 2024 Flash last week. This is my third EV, so obviously I’m a fan and don’t worry that much about the resale. In the case of this 2024 Lightning I do think the resale value will be poor in 2027 when there is more competition and updated models/battery tech with more range. On the other hand it’s possible that the newer models look like weird spaceships and have throttled back performance in the name of efficiency making the Lightning very desirable. Residual value on my lease is about $45K on a MSRP $73K truck. I thought all the new leases were closed end, but my paperwork from last week is definitely open end with option to purchase.

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[RickKeen]

A rancher that I was speaking with made a great point that he uses his diesel pickup to haul large gooseneck trailers to move cattle and haul huge bales of hay. Telling him that he will no longer be able to purchase a useable truck in 2035, especially when there currently is no viable alternative, just doesn't make any sense. This is the disconnect.

The disconnect is that NOBODY is proposing to ban larger trucks in favor of EVs yet. Precisely because there are not yet commercially viable alternatives.

Lumping traditional 3/4 and 1 ton pickup use cases in with 1/2 tons like the Lightning leads to this confusion.

 

[HOTAS]

. Residual value on my lease is about $45K on a MSRP $73K truck. I thought all the new leases were closed end, but my paperwork from last week is definitely open end with option to purchase.

None of my business, but curious.
Did they reduce your Capitalized Cost (lease price) below your stated MSRP, with the Fed. Tax credit + factory/dealer incentives of $15K to $18K that are available right now?
Or did they inflate the Residual Value by those numbers?

 

[Cvh8601]

The disconnect is that NOBODY is proposing to ban larger trucks in favor of EVs yet. Precisely because there are not yet commercially viable alternatives.

Lumping traditional 3/4 and 1 ton pickup use cases in with 1/2 tons like the Lightning leads to this confusion.

And, humans are terrible at long-term prediction. The reaction to not having a viable 1-ton truck today has basically nothing to do with the availability of such a thing a decade from now. For comparison, look at the technology and capability in an iPhone 6 vs. an iPhone 16.

 

[broncoaz]

None of my business, but curious.
Did they reduce your Capitalized Cost (lease price) below your stated MSRP, with the Fed. Tax credit + factory/dealer incentives of $15K to $18K that are available right now?
Or did they inflate the Residual Value by those numbers?

They reduced the cap cost. The Flash only gets $3500 of the federal rebate Ford collects applied to the lease. XLT gets $1500, Lariat gets $5000 if under $80K. Total incentives for me with X plan and private cash offer were $11,000. Had I purchased I would’ve gotten $15K in incentives. Also MA has a $7500 rebate for either purchase or leases, I put down another $7500 cash to reduce the lease payment accordingly.

 

[rembrant]

Dealers are pushing people away from the Lightning and toward diesel and gas trucks. A family member of mine was---just this afternoon---talked out of buying a Lightning by the dealer using FUD about towing and hauling. They got annoyed with the dealer and decided not to buy a new truck instead of buying the Lightning or whatever junk the dealer was pushing on them.

I believe that the dealership realizes that they will lose out on the maintenance and repair of the vehicle

 

[Firn]

I believe that the dealership realizes that they will lose out on the maintenance and repair of the vehicle

Plenty still to repair. Tires, alignments, balancing, shocks, steering, ballpoint, axles, bushings, hoses, exterior, interior, electronics, etc.

I really don't imagine many dealers are doing a lot of internal engine or transmission work. I also doubt they are getting rich on oil changes and air filters.

If they believe the social media rhetoric that they won't have anything to do then they are fools. Although admittedly the majority of dealers I ran into were, well, idiots. Sadly, the good dealers were getting screwed on the EVs, one because Ford messed up, and two because the bad dealers had soured the market.

 

[frost22]

Dealers are pushing people away from the Lightning and toward diesel and gas trucks. A family member of mine was---just this afternoon---talked out of buying a Lightning by the dealer using FUD about towing and hauling. They got annoyed with the dealer and decided not to buy a new truck instead of buying the Lightning or whatever junk the dealer was pushing on them.

I'd use that FUD to get the sales guy to lower the price.

 

[22legit2quit]

I got this STX loaner while my Lightning was getting fixed and with it 700 miles of range for $50k this is where I think our trucks need to get eventually to capture more of the 700k+ gas F150 sales. My original post on X / Twitter hit 75k+ views, so I went deeper with this video! Why do you think is holding back the Lightning from capturing more of those huge gas sales?

Straight up people are silly. You have the dealer and salespeople doing what they can to make a living. It isn’t their fault that their product has no new tricks.
Range anxiety is most likely the biggest issue, but honestly if people want to be dumb and have things forced on them in 5-10 years then so be it. By then all of us on here will already be fully immersed and not having to learn what people learned long ago about new technology ownership.

 

[Malimal]

EVism..lol

Besides that, I wouldn't recommend for people that take multiple long road trips or people who can't charge at home. And then there is the price.
.

 

[frost22]

Its the dealers and the sales process. Easier to just sell an ICE vehicle to somebody familiar with ICE vehicles than to convert them to an EV.
Even Ford is giving up marketing them. There is just no ROI in competing against their own product.

Key is going to be to market the Lightning vs the Tesla, Rivian, and Chevy/GM trucks. Get market share of the people who already know they want an EV.

Also, its harder than many would realize to close the deal same day when you have to deal with the charging question. Sending people away to research how much its going to cost to wire a charger in their garage and the logistics of hiring an electrician to do it can make it impossible to close the deal that same day. But the salesperson CAN close an ICE truck sale same day, no problem.

I keep noticing Ford EV car ads on TV. Especially during football games. Finally showing off the frunk and pro-power features!

It's got me doing the Leo GIF

 

[Calvin H-C]

Gotta love the "resale value" excuse. Especially since realizing years ago that pretty much ANY vehicle will never be worth anything near what you think it should on the resale market, notwithstanding a collectible vehicle kept in good condition. I personally feel that resale value should be last on one's list for choosing a vehicle (or not on the list at all).

The slower charge/refill excuse misses that it generally does not change the time impact on most people's schedules. Unless you can't charge at home, most charging occurs there when the vehicle is not being used. So, filling an ICE vehicle's tank takes more out of one's schedule.

As for fast charging on a road trip, ICE or EV, a rest stop typically takes up a half hour for refilling, stretching one's legs, using the toilet, and grabbing something to eat ( even if for the road). The only difference is that the ICE has the nozzle inserted in the tank, the tank filling, and the nozzle removed in one 5-minute block of time. With an EV, roughly the same 5 minutes is taken to start and end the charge, while the filling occurs while you do the other stuff.

 

[lipnorth]

Very simple. The target F150 driver (and most pickup truck drivers) are probably the most wary of an EV.

I’ve had many pickup drivers make fun of me for my Lightning.

 

[thunderbayterry]

Dealers are pushing people away from the Lightning and toward diesel and gas trucks. A family member of mine was---just this afternoon---talked out of buying a Lightning by the dealer using FUD about towing and hauling. They got annoyed with the dealer and decided not to buy a new truck instead of buying the Lightning or whatever junk the dealer was pushing on them.

I wonder if Dealers are pushing people AWAY from EV's because they are worried about their future. All the maintenance of an ICE is a significant revenue stream - and a Lightning requires a LOT LESS maintenance - Could a Ford Dealer survive if it was ONLY EV? I think they would have to scale DOWN quite considerably. Thoughts?

 

[Rocket808]

Interesting post cbowe. Here's how I see things. We don't have 700 miles of range, but the trucks that do get that range don't have the speed, power, smoothness, quietness, acceleration and so on that we do. They can't wake up with a full tank every day, they can't be fueled at home, and they can't take advantage of the operating cost savings that we enjoy. I've never had a range issue, I've never had an issue charging on my longer trips (~500 miles or so) and the Tesla chargers opening up to us has, by and large, taken away the only reasonable concern which was that you can't rely on EA. Granted, my perspective is a bit skewed as I live in CA and it never gets even remotely cold here, but I find the Lightning meets pretty much all of my needs as is.

Before Tesla though, how many times dogs you have to wait in a queue for an EA charger? Or found that many at a location were broken? That was too many for me.

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