F-150 Lightning EV Tax Credits & Rebates - Discussions & Predictions

[RidetheLightning]

My bigger interest isn't the tax liability (plenty of that sadly) it is the MSRP. CT has a program to credit $2500 for EVs under 43k.

how much you want to bet CT leads the country in per capita Pro model sales?

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[F150ROD]

The more I run the numbers the more I realize that the tax incentives need to pass or I'm gonna have to tap out on the Lightning. Like.. yes I'm in love but man if the pricing matches the survey pricing, the ICE hybrid seems like a better value. Just sucks bc I want to be fully electric for clean driving.

I think a lot of us who have a ICE F-150 are in the same boat. I mean I really want to have AWD and IRS, EV is just a plus.

 

[Whiskey]

I am retired for some years and had put money into my 403b for years tax free when I was in a 12% tax bracket. I had hoped to pull it out when old at a low tax rate but now my farm and rentals (and creeping inflation) boosted me up to 19%!

So, what I am doing is pulling out enough in 2022 to make my tax due payable in 2023 at about $7,500. The money I am pulling out goes for the Lightning. That is one way to do it. If you have a business there is also the possibility of spreading out the $7,500 tax credit over a number of years. **

**Again - a question for your Accountant**

Exactly what I’m doing as well, meeting with tax consultant Monday to confirm my plan.

 

[JTmass]

The thing with me is I could easily see myself using the Lighting as a commuter vehicle, whereas an ICE(on even hybrid f150) I couldn't see that happening due to cost. So for some people-- they may get away with not having the need for a commuter car if they were to buy a a Lightning, whereas they would not/could not do that with a regular pickup

Example: 10,000mi of commuting per year in the Lightning(assuming 2mi/KwH) == [email protected] electric rate == $667/yr. If you were to try that with an ICE f150....say 17mpg@$3.25 gal == $1912/yr.

You'd STILL come out ahead even if you compared it to an ICE commuter car getting 34mpg.

Just my thoughts...

In that comparison, yes the EV comes out ahead but I'm looking at a price jump of around 11k from ICE to EV comparably equipped. Then I have to get the charger installed AND I may have to upgrade my electric service because the dickhead that remodeled my house decided FOR us that we didn't need 200 amp service and left us at 100. So the costs really start to pile up on the EV side.

Best thing for me is that I have to wait to order (most likely) due to being a late August reservation. Then I can wait and see what happens with the EV incentives.

I'll be saving for a truck in the meantime. Whether it's a hybrid or EV will depend on the incentives.

 

[astricklin]

The more I run the numbers the more I realize that the tax incentives need to pass or I'm gonna have to tap out on the Lightning. Like.. yes I'm in love but man if the pricing matches the survey pricing, the ICE hybrid seems like a better value. Just sucks bc I want to be fully electric for clean driving.

Explain....
Currently to get an XLT, supercrew, 5.5 box, Powerboost hybrid, 4x4, skid plates, intelligent access, connected navigation, 360 camera, bed scales, 40 console 40 front seat, I'm getting to $60k...the equivalent equipment comes on a base XLT lightning for $53

 

[greenne]

Explain....
Currently to get an XLT, supercrew, 5.5 box, Powerboost hybrid, 4x4, skid plates, intelligent access, connected navigation, 360 camera, bed scales, 40 console 40 front seat, I'm getting to $60k...the equivalent equipment comes on a base XLT lightning for $53

Also don't forget to factor in about 3x the "cost" of fuel(gas) vs. Electricity and the cost of oil changes, spark plug changes, etc. I found the actual ownershp costs to be quite compelling even without the tax credit, assuming you pay msrp for both

 

[astricklin]

Also don't forget to factor in about 3x the "cost" of fuel(gas) vs. Electricity and the cost of oil changes, spark plug changes, etc. I found the actual ownershp costs to be quite compelling even without the tax credit, assuming you pay msrp for both

Ya, before COVID I would not have bought a new truck unless there was at least a $10k discount under MSRP. I think the days of that are over and trucks will be selling much closer to MSRP at least for the next several years.
But I know that evey other ev, the cost of ownership makes them extremely affordable even though purchase price is more. From the analysis that I have seen a model 3 has a lower or comparable total cost to a Camry.
However, you still have to be able to make the payment on approximately $50k vs 30.
But now that bev pricing is falling much closer to ice pricing (or lower in some cases) I don't think the ice has much longer life for most people's use cases.

 

[JTmass]

Explain....
Currently to get an XLT, supercrew, 5.5 box, Powerboost hybrid, 4x4, skid plates, intelligent access, connected navigation, 360 camera, bed scales, 40 console 40 front seat, I'm getting to $60k...the equivalent equipment comes on a base XLT lightning for $53

I was looking at the Lariat+ (assuming some options aren't available in the base Lariat trim,) and yeah, it's only about 5k more for the EV version, assuming that the packages stay as they were in the survey.

I wouldn't get everything in a hybrid as I would have more flexibility to pick and choose options. I priced a hybrid out at about 65-67k. So I guess it's up in the air until I can get in the build price tool.

 

[Pioneer74]

We’re in a transition period of ICE to EV much like the “horse and buggy to the horseless carriage.” Early autos in the late 19th and 20th century were expensive and only wealthy individuals could afford them. They were status symbols.

It wasn’t until 1908 when Henry Ford introduced the Model T, the first automobile of mass appeal that the serious transition to autos from horses began. It took three decades for the transition to complete.

I believe up to this point that EVs (ex: Tesla) were comparable to the early autos of the late 19th and 20th century, expensive and status symbols.

IMO, Ford’s Lightning is the first EV of mass appeal, much like the Model T.

Will it take three decades for the transition from ICE to EVs? Petroleum producing countries have a lot to lose and I predict lower gasoline and diesel prices worldwide will slow the process. I don’t believe it will take 30 years but more than 10 at the way things are progressing. Then there’s the issue of sufficient number of charging stations.

The only way to make the transition to EVs in this country is significant government incentives for buyers to go EV rather than ICE. Based on what I see going on now (walking a very thin line to stay non-political), it’s going to take some time for the people that pass legislation to do so. One day we’ll see a POS credit comparable to the $12.5K proposed but likely not for the 2022 fiscal year.

I know I’m preaching to the choir but it is Sunday morning as I write this.

The world transitioned from the Horse and Buggy to the Model T because it was a better product. There no reason to believe that the same couldn't happen because an EV, if done correctly, is better than ICE. Tesla is selling every single vehicle they produce. Without tax incentives.

 

[jbirdzee]

It wasn’t until 1908 when Henry Ford introduced the Model T, the first automobile of mass appeal that the serious transition to autos from horses began. It took three decades for the transition to complete.

I googled "Model T Tax Credit" and nothing is showing up. As others have said, EV batteries are expensive AF. The company that can revolutionize the design to minimize costs will make today's Model T - without incentives.

 

[RidetheLightning]

It’s tough to separate government incentives from the evolution of any industry - you certainly had, and still have, fossil fuel incentives, throughout the 20th and 21st century, for ICE vehicles. Right now, there are more incentives for EV vehicles. I think that was the right choice in the early 1900s as the government saw what the automobile would do to reshape the country, and it’s the right choice now as EVs are going to revolutionize the way we fuel our vehicles and reduce the carbon footprint to mitigate climate change. (if this ends up getting too political I’m more than happy to delete this post, I’m more concerned with all of us getting the best final price for the truck we want than anything else) https://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i51/Long-History-US-Energy-Subsidies.html

 

[sotek2345]

I googled "Model T Tax Credit" and nothing is showing up. As others have said, EV batteries are expensive AF. The company that can revolutionize the design to minimize costs will make today's Model T - without incentives.

To be fair, there wasn't a national income tax (as we know it) in place when the model T was made, so nothing to credit.

 

[3putter]

Ya, before COVID I would not have bought a new truck unless there was at least a $10k discount under MSRP. I think the days of that are over and trucks will be selling much closer to MSRP at least for the next several years.
But I know that evey other ev, the cost of ownership makes them extremely affordable even though purchase price is more. From the analysis that I have seen a model 3 has a lower or comparable total cost to a Camry.
However, you still have to be able to make the payment on approximately $50k vs 30.
But now that bev pricing is falling much closer to ice pricing (or lower in some cases) I don't think the ice has much longer life for most people's use cases.

Agree, and it's important to add that EVs last WAY longer than ICE -- probably at least 6-8 years and many more miles.

 

[Sdctcher]

Just a few comments (and guesses) on possible changes to EV credits 2022:

**EVERYTHING BELOW ARE ONLY MY INFORMED GUESSES**

It seems the Democrats today have come very close to agreement on changes to "The Build Better Plan" that includes EV Credits. The credit portion of the bill is a very small component ($30 Billion over 10 years).

Next up would be Staff rewriting the bill and a push to have the House and Senate pass the compromise by the end of the month. Now how much will we learn about the numbers before passage? Probably as little as possible if they have their way. Leaks will only make some mad.

I would expect we will end up with very small changes for now:

1) Delete the Union-Made Vehicle extra credit (because the West Virginia Senator is in charge and his state is not exactly Union Friendly);

2) Extend the $7,500 credit to ALL vehicles, including GM & Tesla (lobbyists have spent too much to give this up);

3) Change the Tax Credit to a Point-of-Sale Cash Credit.

I don't think the limits proposed on maximum vehicle value and taxpayer income were either logical nor could they be administered easily.

We might, or might know, the real deal by October 26th or for sure whether it will pass (chances of 50 Senate votes I think became real today). But the picture certainly will be clear around the first of November.

If we order next week based on our guess of a rebate/tax credit or not, we can always change our mind before build.

So go ahead and order next week and have fun. I just emailed my dealer requesting an appointment early next Tuesday morning.

 

[bboy_72]

Just a few comments (and guesses) on possible changes to EV credits 2022:

**EVERYTHING BELOW ARE ONLY MY INFORMED GUESSES**

It seems the Democrats today have come very close to agreement on changes to "The Build Better Plan" that includes EV Credits. The credit portion of the bill is a very small component ($30 Billion over 10 years).

Next up would be Staff rewriting the bill and a push to have the House and Senate pass the compromise by the end of the month. Now how much will we learn about the numbers before passage? Probably as little as possible if they have their way. Leaks will only make some mad.

I would expect we will end up with very small changes for now:

1) Delete the Union-Made Vehicle extra credit (because the West Virginia Senator is in charge and his state is not exactly Union Friendly);

2) Extend the $7,500 credit to ALL vehicles, including GM & Tesla (lobbyists have spent too much to give this up);

3) Change the Tax Credit to a Point-of-Sale Cash Credit.

I don't think the limits proposed on maximum vehicle value and taxpayer income were either logical nor could they be administered easily.

We might, or might know, the real deal by October 26th or for sure whether it will pass (chances of 50 Senate votes I think became real today). But the picture certainly will be clear around the first of November.

If we order next week based on our guess of a rebate/tax credit or not, we can always change our mind before build.

So go ahead and order next week and have fun. I just emailed my dealer requesting an appointment early next Tuesday morning.

I expect that the Dem’s being so close on a final framework is why the 10/26 order bank opening is rumored to be delayed.

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