Analysis of Waves #1 - #3

[Sdctcher]

I have taken the data from our Forum Order Page and corrected, reformed, and grouped it into summaries of Waves 1-3 in hopes of finding patterns whereas we can find conclusions that give some hope for those of us who are waiting for that Golden Ticket to be emailed to them over the next month. Unfortunately, Ford has chosen to not give us a roadmap on how they decided on the invitation process.

I am sure some may quibble with my observations and/or find patterns and projections I do not find.

Be aware that our sample may not be representative of the overall population. It is probably heavy on "Fanboys" and Early Reservists but some patterns will be relevant. Since our data did not include dealer size nor dealer allocations I could not guess how Ford would have used this to issue Invites.

Conclusions:
Wave #1 was allocated Nationwide to many dealers/states/Canada and was non-specific to ZEV States; probably to sell out lower valued units (Pro) that count less to ZEV credits. Most invitations went to earliest prioritized customers.

Texas received many units probably because the state accounts for a majority of ICE F-150 sales.

Wave #2-3 were heavily dedicated to ZEV states to sell XLT and higher valued units.

Waves #4-6 will go heavily to both ZEV states and higher income states which have been underrepresented to date such as Ohio and Pennsylvania to market remaining Lariats and Platinums. Early reservists in Days 1-3 at large dealerships will get invites. Trucks that cost $70k to 100k will be marketed to markets where the money is.

Read the attached file and make your own conclusions...and Good Luck!

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[Bandit216]

I think there is a PR aspect to the first few waves. Ford wants to be able to shout "We've already delivered our new Lightning to all 50 states and every Canadian province"
Also, I think the whole priority to ZEV states thing is largely imagined. ZEV states buy more EVs, hence more are delivered there. It's that simple.

 

[EaglesPDX]

I think the whole priority to ZEV states thing is largely imagined.

$500M of Tesla profits are due to ZEV credits. It's a LOT of money.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Nice report, but NH is not a ZEV state

 

[rdr854]

Nice report, but NH is not a ZEV state

Virginia is now a ZEV state with action taken by the General Assembly during last year’s session and subsequent adoption of regulations by the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board. As a result, Virginia dealers will be required to sell California-certified vehicles beginning with model year 2025.

 

[RickLightning]

I think there is a PR aspect to the first few waves. Ford wants to be able to shout "We've already delivered our new Lightning to all 50 states and every Canadian province"
Also, I think the whole priority to ZEV states thing is largely imagined. ZEV states buy more EVs, hence more are delivered there. It's that simple.

Mach-E sales are clearly tilted to ZEV states because Ford doesn't have to buy ZEV credits.

 

[hturnerfamily]

as an early reservation, and a Jan 6 early orderer, I get a sense that because of the very low 'per dealer' wave 1 orders, Ford is trying to 'saturate' the market, in a way, NATIONWIDE, with their full EV Certified Dealer list. This way, most of the country has a least a possibility of actually seeing at least a GLANCE at one of these vehicles on the road, in person, or maybe even CHARGING at Walmart, etc. I also believe they'll provide that first customer order delivery with a demo vehicle for that same dealer. With only 3,000 Ford Dealers across the country, even then you'll barely ever see one, at least for a Long, Long while... Mine will stay parked and hidden in my garage, unless it's actually being driven, where it will not be parked in a prominant place for 'gawkers'. I would be a gawker, myself, if I wasn't receiving one, hopefully soon. TESLA had this same 'awe' in the marketplace, around the country, too, if not still.

 

[rdr854]

I would park my Lightning in the garage if I could, but the truck is too long to fit by about 5 inches.

I also have a Volvo V90 wagon which is very rare In the US. Less than 2,000 were imported into the US and I very rarely see any, but have been stopped in parking lots. I am hopeful that the Lightning will blend in better.

 

[PA Lightning]

I would park my Lightning in the garage if I could, but the truck is too long to fit by about 5 inches.

I also have a Volvo V90 wagon which is very rare In the US. Less than 2,000 were imported into the US and I very rarely see any, but have been stopped in parking lots. I am hopeful that the Lightning will blend in better.

I think you will blend in fine with the Lightning. I would venture to guess that the masses have no idea what the Lightning is at this point.

I anticipate a day when I have my frunk open, some helpful citizen will come by and ask if I am having engine problems. Answer.... Some SOB stole my engine.

 

[rdr854]

I think you will blend in fine with the Lightning. I would venture to guess that the masses have no idea what the Lightning is at this point.

I anticipate a day when I have my frunk open, some helpful citizen will come by and ask if I am having engine problems. Answer.... Some SOB stole my engine.

Lol

 

[LightningLover]

I would park my Lightning in the garage if I could, but the truck is too long to fit by about 5 inches.

I also have a Volvo V90 wagon which is very rare In the US. Less than 2,000 were imported into the US and I very rarely see any, but have been stopped in parking lots. I am hopeful that the Lightning will blend in better.

If you want to blend in more you can always remove the Lightning badge.

 

[jefro]

My dealer seemed to only want to sell the highest trim models and told the pro buyers to go take a hike.

 

[pstansel]

Quick note you show my preorder (first on Wave 3) but under Geographical I'm not there for CT (East Coast)

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

This doesn't take into account all of us that were in these waves but extended our reservations. Hard to make estimates on where invites went...only where orders were confirmed.

 

[wheelz2000]

Was informed today by my dealer that they allocations they've already received are done for MY22.
So with that said, as a day 1 reservation holder at 830pm CST, I will not receive an invite for an MY22. This is very disappointing.

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