Poll: A lot theories on why we aren’t seeing shipments ⚡️

[Carminus]

Some of those also only have recent build dates. Some of us have been produce for 2-3 now going on 4 weeks this week. now It boils down to order shipped. Fresh off the line (LIFO) OR first built (FIFO)

Yeah, my blend date was on 4/20. Oddly I could not look up mine even though I was able to earlier.

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[rlbussard]

Our MachE has received OTA, but BlueCruise which was in our FE and supposed to be OTA'd and in service Summer to early Fall of 21 is yet to be deployed. I do see a lot more movement recently on Software though. Ford could hold back Production to extend Tax Credit longer but more likely some thorough QA checks. F150 is very important to Ford whether ICE, Hybrid or BEV. They need to get this as right as possible.

Blue Cruise is coming for your Mach E. We finally received our OTA for it about 30 days ago on our 21 Mach E.

 

[Pjlightning]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but I looked up those vins and orders and if this is correct they don't have them yet.

\

Thanks for the intel.

Question-

what link do you use to get to the version of the order tracking that you showed here?

mine looks different:

And in the one you showed, it appears they have passed through “shipping” as if that leg is completed, and they are in “final preparation “ which sounds like something that might take place AT the dealer ?

I don’t get how the one showing with the 5/6 production date has advanced all the way to end (final prep) so fast ?

 

[p52Ranch]

Maybe this shipping "delay" has actually been Ford's plan all along. Ford seems to be trying to control the media story on the Lightning to get the maximum buzz and boost Ford's image. Those with early build dates become the "victims" of this schedule.

Here is my view of the Ford plan.
1. Have a special Lightning release event on April 26 that generates buzz (target audience was really the stock market).
2. Wait a week.
3. Hold the media reviews until shortly before you expect Lightnings to be distributed.
4. Allow for a week of media embargo between the media first drive event and publication.
5. DON'T modernize the communication to dealers or the end consumer regarding anything after the vehicles start as a basket of parts on the assembly line. After all we (Ford) don't want to develop an all new way to communicate to go along with our all new Lightning.
6. Lightnings can't be shipped until after the media embargo was released and that was only four days ago.
7. Figure out a way to make sure that there is media coverage on the delivery of the first Lightnings (Pro models) to some fleet businesses and prove this is the everyman's work truck.
8. Delay all other shipments until steps 1 thru 7 are completed.
9. Keep this plan a secret and DON'T communicate it to anyone.

 

[GDN]

Maybe this shipping "delay" has actually been Ford's plan all along. Ford seems to be trying to control the media story on the Lightning to get the maximum buzz and boost Ford's image. Those with early build dates become the "victims" of this schedule.

Here is my view of the Ford plan.
1. Have a special Lightning release event on April 26 that generates buzz (target audience was really the stock market).
2. Wait a week.
3. Hold the media reviews until shortly before you expect Lightnings to be distributed.
4. Allow for a week of media embargo between the media first drive event and publication.
5. DON'T modernize the communication to dealers or the end consumer regarding anything after the vehicles start as a basket of parts on the assembly line. After all we (Ford) don't want to develop an all new way to communicate to go along with our all new Lightning.
6. Lightnings can't be shipped until after the media embargo was released and that was only four days ago.
7. Figure out a way to make sure that there is media coverage on the delivery of the first Lightnings (Pro models) to some fleet businesses and prove this is the everyman's work truck.
8. Delay all other shipments until steps 1 thru 7 are completed.
9. Keep this plan a secret and DON'T communicate it to anyone.

Anything is possible, but lets just say Ford has already milked this enough. It doesn't really do any more good to hold them, for all the buzz it generates it just hacks that many more people off, because if you aren't in the queue with a truck being built or a future reservation you aren't going to get one anyway. You can't even get in line anymore.

Earlier my prediction was that they'll start to ship early this coming week. If they don't, I'm firmly in the camp that something is wrong whether it be chips or software or something. It doesn't make sense to shoot themselves in the foot and keep those that have ordered the trucks waiting any longer.

 

[Carminus]

Thanks for the intel.

Question-
what link do you use to get to the version of the order tracking that you showed here?

mine looks different:

And in the one you showed, it appears they are passed through “shipping” as if that leg is completed, and they are in “final preparation “ which sounds like something that might take place AT the dealer ?

I don’t get how the one show with the 5/6 production date has advanced all the way to end (final prep) so fast ?

They haven't passed shipping the double circle with date shows where its at and the check mark means completed.. Look at it again:

Like you, I use the normal page that you posted but I also use this link below:

Ford Vehicle Order Tracking Home

You will need your VIN and order number which is on the window sticker and its 4 digits

example (not mine) order number would be 5751

 

[GDN]

Like you, I use the normal page that you posted but I also use this link below:

Ford Vehicle Order Tracking Home

You will need your VIN and order number which is on the window sticker and its 4 digits

example (not mine) order number would be 5751

Your dealer also has that 4 digit order number and it is on the initial order form if you got one from them. My dealer sent me a PDF of mine the day they accepted the order. You can get it from them if you haven't seen your window sticker.

 

[Pjlightning]

They haven't passed shipping the double circle with date shows where its at and the check mark means completed.. Look at it again:

Like you, I use the normal page that you posted but I also use this link below:

Ford Vehicle Order Tracking Home

You will need your VIN and order number which is on the window sticker and its 4 digits

example (not mine) order number would be 5751

thanks!
Very helpful.

that link you provided is a much better one than what I was using. Seems much more detailed.

thanks also for pointing out the double circle. I missed that.
so these aren’t nearly as far along as I thought….

 

[BlueF150Guy]

I feel like we need to start hitting up Emma Berg, Mike Levine and Jim Farley on social media again. That seemed to have gotten Ford’s attention during the dealer games and ADM issues.

Don’t we also have media folks and YouTube influencers on these boards? Now would be a great time to pose a direct question to Ford. “So what are all those trucks doing parked around Dearborn and why haven’t they shipped?”

 

[Sdctcher]

I feel like we need to start hitting up Emma Berg, Mike Levine and Jim Farley on social media again. That seemed to have gotten Ford’s attention during the dealer games and ADM issues.

Don’t we also have media folks and YouTube influencers on these boards? Now would be a great time to pose a direct question to Ford. “So what are all those trucks doing parked around Dearborn and why haven’t they shipped?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/26/automobiles/ford-electric-f150-lightning.html

By Neal E. Boudette
April 26, 2022

"Ford says it has produced 2,000 electric F-150 pickup trucks.
Deliveries of the F-150 Lightning, Ford’s most important new vehicle in many years, will begin in the coming week, it said."

 

[FordLightningMan]

I have a pretty good view into shipping and logistics. The way that things are working now is anyone can get access to trucks, IF they want to pay for it. The problem is shipping rates are so high, a lot of companies are holding off on paying the higher rates in hopes prices will come down. In the meantime, those who must ship now are helping freight and logistics companies make some heavy profits.

What this is doing is pushing the price of perishable goods through the roof. If you're shipping food that can go bad, you have no choice but to pay the triple shipping cost, but then those prices are passed on to consumers.

So the question is how much margin is on this batch of Lightnings? What is the lesser of two evils for Ford, holding out to make a few more bucks or paying triple the freight cost to get them out quicker? It's not necessarily a question of if there's a way to ship the trucks now, it's does Ford want to pay for it?

 

[GDN]

I have a pretty good view into shipping and logistics. The way that things are working now is anyone can get access to trucks, IF they want to pay for it. The problem is shipping rates are so high, a lot of companies are holding off on paying the higher rates in hopes prices will come down. In the meantime, those who must ship now are helping freight and logistics companies make some heavy profits.

What this is doing is pushing the price of perishable goods through the roof. If you're shipping food that can go bad, you have no choice but to pay the triple shipping cost, but then those prices are passed on to consumers.

So the question is how much margin is on this batch of Lightnings? What is the lesser of two evils for Ford, holding out to make a few more bucks or paying triple the freight cost to get them out quicker? It's not necessarily a question of if there's a way to ship the trucks now, it's does Ford want to pay for it?

Sadly you note that it really isn't that much more expensive to ship right now, the freight companies are just gouging to "make those heavy profits". So that seems to be the way of the world right now, lets just see who we can screw.

Next is Ford doesn't pay for the shipping, each of us do and it went up by $100 a month back. I guess there cold be some truth to this if they can't get shippers for that current amount, but a company the size of Ford shipping millions of vehicles each year must have long term contracts with these shippers. I'm sure they have clauses for fuel adjustments, etc, but they must have some long term agreements to tap into.

 

[sotek2345]

Sadly you note that it really isn't that much more expensive to ship right now, the freight companies are just gouging to "make those heavy profits". So that seems to be the way of the world right now, lets just see who we can screw.

Next is Ford doesn't pay for the shipping, each of us do and it went up by $100 a month back. I guess there cold be some truth to this if they can't get shippers for that current amount, but a company the size of Ford shipping millions of vehicles each year must have long term contracts with these shippers. I'm sure they have clauses for fuel adjustments, etc, but they must have some long term agreements to tap into.

It all comes down to how big the increase is. If the average cost per truck for shipping really tripled from $1700 to around $5000, that $100 increase means nothing.

That said, I doubt shipping costs are going to come down any time soon (read years) and I can't see Ford sitting on these trucks for that long. Talk about bad press! If shipping costs is the issue, something has to give at some point. Worst case, I expect Ford will want to have at least some deliveries before the before the end of June.

 

[Amps]

a company the size of Ford shipping millions of vehicles each year must have long term contracts with these shippers. I'm sure they have clauses for fuel adjustments, etc, but they must have some long term agreements to tap into.

They have long term contracts with the railroads, too. Contracts don't magically make personnel appear to help the companies fulfill them.

The railroads furloughed tens of thousands of operating employees because they adopted an operating plan (PSR) that is unsustainable. It wasn't the pandemic. Now, that operations are in meltdown, the lifestyle, pay and benefits are not attractive enough to bring them back. The same lifestyle reasons are affecting long-haul trucking. There are two generations of institutional experience simultaneously walking away from both industries. A huge number of retirements, and a lot more are finding jobs with the same pay that allow them to be home to raise their families.

It's not the end of the world, but expect shipping delays.

 

[LightningShow]

IMO it’s just getting a new manufacturing line up and running and being certain that quality is as perfect as possible. It takes time to get that kind of operation up to speed. Plus it’s a historic vehicle launch so they’re going to be sure everything is 1000% right. Making the first few thousand buyers wait a few weeks or a month longer is nothing compared to the impact of shipping vehicles that aren’t perfect. The first trucks going to consumers are going to be gone over with a fine toothed comb and any issues are going to be splashed all over automotive media, youtube, etc.

There’s been zero indication that there are issues with production, part supply, etc. They’ve had media crawling all over this, if there was something that was going to cause a substantial delay it would’ve leaked.

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