Looks like the SCALPING market is dead (for now).

[lightspeed]

- cars-n-bids have had no Lightning auctions for the last 10 days when they used to have 3 going at a time most of the time.
- ebay motors has many auctions that didn't not sell and the ones that did sell were MSRP + $8-10K for the Lariat ER which is a wash after taxes.

So it looks like:
- sellers are giving up and buyers are drying up and/or people are waiting for MY23 at this point.
- interest rates and the macro economic environment is taking its toll
- we are running out of people willing or able to pay 80K for a truck with $1000+/mo payments???

Doing some rough math:
- to "responsibly" buy a $80K truck, the household should make $200K+ (as a rough guide)
- number of households in the US that make $200K+ is about 8.5 million
- total luxury car sales is about 2.2 million per year (but that includes entry level luxury vehicles)
- average transaction price for luxury vehicles is $66K
- total market for 80K+ vehicles is probably less than a million a year (this is a guess)???
- based on what I usually see in inventory, Lariat and higher trims make up 10-15% of F150 sales
- Ford sells roughly 750K F150s per year at the moment (changes by year), so their addressable market for higher priced trims is roughly 112K units per year.

So unless my math is way off somewhere, Ford is going to have to unleash a lot more lower trim Lightnings to get anywhere near 150K units. There is not enough market for 80K trucks unless a giant pool of well off people decide to jump to trucks.

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[F150ROD]

Or bring back favorable Ford Options numbers.

 

[sotek2345]

- cars-n-bids have had no Lightning auctions for the last 10 days when they used to have 3 going at a time most of the time.
- ebay motors has many auctions that didn't not sell and the ones that did sell were MSRP + $8-10K for the Lariat ER which is a wash after taxes.

So it looks like:
- sellers are giving up and buyers are drying up and/or people are waiting for MY23 at this point.
- interest rates and the macro economic environment is taking its toll
- we are running out of people willing or able to pay 80K for a truck with $1000+/mo payments???

Doing some rough math:
- to "responsibly" buy a $80K truck, the household should make $200K+ (as a rough guide)
- number of households in the US that make $200K+ is about 8.5 million
- total luxury car sales is about 2.2 million per year (but that includes entry level luxury vehicles)
- average transaction price for luxury vehicles is $66K
- total market for 80K+ vehicles is probably less than a million a year (this is a guess)???
- based on what I usually see in inventory, Lariat and higher trims make up 10-15% of F150 sales
- Ford sells roughly 750K F150s per year at the moment (changes by year), so their addressable market for higher priced trims is roughly 112K units per year.

So unless my math is way off somewhere, Ford is going to have to unleash a lot more lower trim Lightnings to get anywhere near 150K units. There is not enough market for 80K trucks unless a giant pool of well off people decide to jump to trucks.

You math isn't too bad, but operational savings (and some state tax credits) allow people to reach higher for EVs so the market for an $80k EV is larger than the market for an $80k ICE vehicle

 

[lightspeed]

You math isn't too bad, but operational savings (and some state tax credits) allow people to reach higher for EVs so the market for an $80k EV is larger than the market for an $80k ICE vehicle

That's a good point.

If a buyer puts down 20% and finances the rest for 7 years, it's going to be around $1000/mo in payments, but if you can save $400/mo in gas, then maybe it works out overall. The volume seller for Ford is probably a mid-optioned XLT at $60k so the extra 20K w/ the fuel saving eases the pain.

(I bought a 2018 XLT nicely optioned for 20% off MSRP in Texas $42K or so. I miss those days of walking into a dealer and getting 20% off pretty easily.)

 

[lancersrock]

Ford just released data that said like 70% of truck purchasers have $1000+ payments. And there’s people like me who make poor financial decisions and swing an 80k truck on 120k a year. However my house payment is $1000 and I’ll save $300 in gas vs electric/solar

 

[dirtdiver]

I still think the trucks will hold their value well into 2024. Prices keep going up.

steve

 

[Regular150]

Yes, our 21 Platinum Powerboost FX4, and every option including Active Motion Seats was more money than my Lariat ER Loaded Lightning after Tax Rebate.

The Lightning is the best F150, actually the best vehicle I've ever had.

 

[kkgg]

- cars-n-bids have had no Lightning auctions for the last 10 days when they used to have 3 going at a time most of the time.
- ebay motors has many auctions that didn't not sell and the ones that did sell were MSRP + $8-10K for the Lariat ER which is a wash after taxes.

So it looks like:
- sellers are giving up and buyers are drying up and/or people are waiting for MY23 at this point.
- interest rates and the macro economic environment is taking its toll
- we are running out of people willing or able to pay 80K for a truck with $1000+/mo payments???

Doing some rough math:
- to "responsibly" buy a $80K truck, the household should make $200K+ (as a rough guide)
- number of households in the US that make $200K+ is about 8.5 million
- total luxury car sales is about 2.2 million per year (but that includes entry level luxury vehicles)
- average transaction price for luxury vehicles is $66K
- total market for 80K+ vehicles is probably less than a million a year (this is a guess)???
- based on what I usually see in inventory, Lariat and higher trims make up 10-15% of F150 sales
- Ford sells roughly 750K F150s per year at the moment (changes by year), so their addressable market for higher priced trims is roughly 112K units per year.

So unless my math is way off somewhere, Ford is going to have to unleash a lot more lower trim Lightnings to get anywhere near 150K units. There is not enough market for 80K trucks unless a giant pool of well off people decide to jump to trucks.

Your are missing human factor in the mix . Add in that to the formula and you will get the answer why/how people are buying, will keep buying.

We don't think rationally. If that is the case we would have got a vehicle and driver till the wheels fall apart.

- Tax savings
- No gas/maintenance cost (big one)
- better resale value
- good product overall
- latest trend
- set mind to new inflated prices for everything



Are making people think the can afford these. But the fact is they paid these costs upfront(rather than over the course)

Oh the other hand, it feels like not a terrible decision

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

The resale market for the Lightning will be very model specific.

Lariat SR? Not alot of markup. Dealers recieved alot of these as stock and they are expensive. They don't add a ton of value over the XLT/Pro SR for the price gap.

Lariat ER? That will hold value. Better value than the XLT ER for those wanting the ER model.

XLT SR/Pro SR? Those will also hold value as they have a lower price point to get into.

Now that Ford has corrected the price of the Pro to what it really should be the XLT SR makes more sense.

 

[Halbach]

We don't think rationally. If that is the case we would have got a vehicle and driver till the wheels fall apart.

I think the ratio for me is about 50%.
Half vehicles I have owned died or rusted apart, this one will be boosting that number up!

 

[Joneii]

The value of these vehicles is complicated in my opinion. For background, I’ve always considered a vehicle a tool. As such, I typically purchased used vehicles with remaining manufacturer’s warranty and then drove them until the mounting repair costs outstripped their value.
In fact, the only new vehicle I ever purchased before now was when the government offered the “Cash for Clunkers” deal and I couldn’t pass up the free money (I’m still driving that vehicle with 230k miles on it).
But EVs seem fundamentally different to me, and the Lightning in particular has more value to me. The first major difference is that for the first time since I’ve been buying vehicles, the vehicle you buy today may be better tomorrow or 5 years down the road. OTA updates and line replaceable parts promise functional improvement in the future. Also, with bidirectional power the machine is no longer just a transportation tool. It has now become a portable generator, a whole house backup power system, a mobile work station, an emergency response system, and a power broker for time of use power supply systems. All of this additional utility coupled with the reduced maintenance and operating costs that others have mentioned add a dimension to the value calculation that I don’t think we’ve seen in the past. Oh, I also find value in the fact I can independently produce the power for this vehicle (with our solar system). In fact this vehicle fills a storage gap in our property’s power system. Others may also find value in the “future proofing” of the power supply chain. You can only run a petrol vehicle on limited fuel. But, you can run an electric vehicle on power produced from any source available now or in the future. This gives society a lot of flexibility to transition our energy production with emerging tech.
That’s a lot of words to say, “this vehicle is better, so it’s worth more.”

 

[RickLightning]

Your are missing human factor in the mix . Add in that to the formula and you will get the answer why/how people are buying, will keep buying.

We don't think rationally. If that is the case we would have got a vehicle and driver till the wheels fall apart.

- Tax savings
- No gas/maintenance cost (big one)
- better resale value
- good product overall
- latest trend
- set mind to new inflated prices for everything



Are making people think the can afford these. But the fact is they paid these costs upfront(rather than over the course)

Oh the other hand, it feels like not a terrible decision

This. People buy trucks on a lot less than $200k. Ford offers Options, lowering payment. That whole post had invalid assumptions.

 

[jerock]

This. People buy trucks on a lot less than $200k. Ford offers Options, lowering payment. That whole post had invalid assumptions.

It is amazing to me that people make assumptions what other people can afford. They have no idea how these people spend their money, have invested their money, do they have rent or house payments, do they have kids or any other idea of what they can afford.

 

[RickLightning]

It is amazing to me that people make assumptions what other people can afford. They have no idea how these people spend their money, have invested their money, do they have rent or house payments, do they have kids or any other idea of what they can afford.

I agree with your statement.

I'll also tell you that a lot of people buy vehicles that are beyond their ability to "afford". Afford to me means that you can pay all your bills, put food on the table, and not be in hock up to your eyeballs. There are people buying $70,000 pickups that qualify for loans but in fact can't "afford" them. Companies like Ford Credit have massive workforces to deal with these people and encourage overdue payments be made vs. repossessing the vehicle.

 

[jerock]

I agree with your statement.

I'll also tell you that a lot of people buy vehicles that are beyond their ability to "afford". Afford to me means that you can pay all your bills, put food on the table, and not be in hock up to your eyeballs. There are people buying $70,000 pickups that qualify for loans but in fact can't "afford" them. Companies like Ford Credit have massive workforces to deal with these people and encourage overdue payments be made vs. repossessing the vehicle.

I agree with everything you’ve said. My point is that saying a certain amount of income is an indicator of whether you can afford this vehicle is false. Many that make over $200k cannot afford it and many that make under that amount can afford it.
As in the book the millionaire next door points out you cannot tell how well a person handles their money or their net worth by their income only.

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