Will Ford's NACS announcement cause people not to buy EVs with CCS until 2025 ??

[metroshot]

Saw this article and wondering if this might be one of the reasons EVs are not selling as quickly:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-only-ev-worth-buying-right-now-charging-nacs-ccs-2023-7

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[Zprime29]

I disagree with the author. CCS chargers are not going to suddenly disappear in 2 years. The rollout of EV's with NACS is going to be just as slow as it is with current EV rollouts. It will likely be 2030+ before "NACS dominance" is a thing. I'm glad we are moving over to it, but your average Joe don't give 2 sh*ts what connector is on the car. They do, however, care about what their monthly payment will be. And with EV prices trending higher along side interest rates...well there's your problem.

I think once more affordable (sub $30k) EV's start rolling off the line in numbers we will see that there is still high demand. The market for $50k+ EV's is pretty well saturated. Prior to the lightning, the most I paid is around $35k for a Honda Pilot. It took a lot of convincing to get the Mrs. on board with such an expensive vehicle.

I really want to upgrade our Pilot but wife wants another 3 row (car pooling for school and fewer cars when family visits). Not sure I want to drop another $60k+ right now when we are already pushing it with the truck. So, I'll wait another couple years to see what comes out and let prices settle down. I'm greatly interested to see what Ford does for the 3 row EV they've been touting.

 

[shutterbug]

I disagree with the author. CCS chargers are not going to suddenly disappear in 2 years.

They aren't going to disappear, but if you don't absolutely have to buy now and really care about DCFC and plan to keep the car for a few years, why would you invest in a car with CCS port?

 

[MM in SouthTX]

I'm more concerned about my resale being affected by newer, faster charging speed. If you can fill these things up like you do with gas, it's game over for ICE vehicles, and we will own dinosaurs.

 

[Pioneer74]

They aren't going to disappear, but if you don't absolutely have to buy now and really care about DCFC and plan to keep the car for a few years, why would you invest in a car with CCS port?

Maybe if Farley makes his adaptor rollout plan public, specifically the time table, people would rethink waiting.

I would have no problem buying a current CCS vehicle if I knew when I would be receiving my adaptor, how much it might cost me, and when Tesla will have the app integration done.

 

[Amps]

They aren't going to disappear, but if you don't absolutely have to buy now and really care about DCFC and plan to keep the car for a few years, why would you invest in a car with CCS port?

Invest is a bad word to use to refer to new cars and trucks; 2022 may have been the only year in history that it could have been legitimately used. Even then, it's marginal.

Adapter charging isn't the end of the world. As in, see those Teslas adapter charging at EAs? It's a thing. If I was holding out, it would be for bells and whistles offered on some future model that isn't on the market now that will come with NACS. Not because of NACS.

 

[Toby57]

Some will use it as a reason to hold off. Maybe a few, very small numbers. Non ev owners don't know it is going to happen.

 

[Zprime29]

They aren't going to disappear, but if you don't absolutely have to buy now and really care about DCFC and plan to keep the car for a few years, why would you invest in a car with CCS port?

Half of America can't point to China on a world map, I'd bet good money less than half would correctly identify tesla vs CCS connector let alone care which one they have. I didn't know a standard wall outlet would not meaningfully charge an EV until I started visiting this forum a year ago and I'd like to think I'm well educated.

I recently read an article about a Tesla owner who tried to argue with a mechanic that his brakes didn't have fluid cuz it was an EV. So anytime someone claims people aren't buying due to a knowledge point, I question it. Bet my bottom dollar that people aren't buying cuz they have no bottom dollar to spare at the moment. Those of us who can afford it have bought already. Very few left looking as evidenced by such a poor conversion rate for the lightning. People didn't want a $80k truck. But that's my opinion.

 

[COrocket]

I disagree with the author. CCS chargers are not going to suddenly disappear in 2 years. The rollout of EV's with NACS is going to be just as slow as it is with current EV rollouts. It will likely be 2030+ before "NACS dominance" is a thing.

NACS dominance is a thing in present day 2023. In the US, Tesla Superchargers outnumber all 100+kW CCS chargers. It’s just not readily obvious because CCS is spread over several dozen fragmented networks so it’s harder to keep tabs on CCS rollout.

Now that most major EV manufacturers have committed to NACS, I’d imagine what’s going to happen over the next couple years is EA and others are going to start cord swapping existing stations to NACS. Then everyone with a CCS vehicle will simply be bound to using an adapter for the rest of the vehicles life or get left behind. Based on how vacant CCS chargers have been since owning the Lighting, I personally don’t think there’s enough CCS vehicles on the road today to keep these competing networks financially solvent. Especially when they have to compete with the superior Tesla experience.

 

[Zprime29]

NACS dominance is a thing in present day 2023. In the US, Tesla Superchargers outnumber all 100+kW CCS chargers. It’s just not readily obvious because CCS is spread over several dozen fragmented networks so it’s harder to keep tabs on CCS rollout.

Now that most major EV manufacturers have committed to NACS, I’d imagine what’s going to happen over the next couple years is EA and others are going to start cord swapping existing stations to NACS. Then everyone with a CCS vehicle will simply be bound to using an adapter for the rest of the vehicles life or get left behind. Based on how vacant CCS chargers have been since owning the Lighting, I personally don’t think there’s enough CCS vehicles on the road today to keep these competing networks financially solvent. Especially when they have to compete with the superior Tesla experience.

In my mind it isn't dominance until we have access to them. Ford's deal only unlocks V3 equating to 12,000 chargers. Add in the 50% premium and now my road trip is more expensive than paying for gas in the Pilot. So while it will be great, I'm not over the moon about it. I still think people are balking at the sticker price and not because they think the car will be "worthless" in 2 years.

 

[shutterbug]

Maybe if Farley makes his adaptor rollout plan public, specifically the time table, people would rethink waiting.

I would have no problem buying a current CCS vehicle if I knew when I would be receiving my adaptor, how much it might cost me, and when Tesla will have the app integration done.

Also if the adapter would solve the issue of charge cord being to short to use without taking up 2 spots.

 

[shutterbug]

Half of America can't point to China on a world map,

The other half would respond with What's a map?

 

[shutterbug]

In my mind it isn't dominance until we have access to them. Ford's deal only unlocks V3 equating to 12,000 chargers. Add in the 50% premium and now my road trip is more expensive than paying for gas in the Pilot. So while it will be great, I'm not over the moon about it. I still think people are balking at the sticker price and not because they think the car will be "worthless" in 2 years.

Sticker plus interest rates. Plus, for those of us in AZ, higher registration fees. My 21 MME, had registration of about $25/year. The 23 Lightning (acquired in 22), is around $400. Now they are $1,000 and $1,400 respectively.

 

[metroshot]

They aren't going to disappear, but if you don't absolutely have to buy now and really care about DCFC and plan to keep the car for a few years, why would you invest in a car with CCS port?

That's what the author said - better to lease than buy now.

 

[Monkey]

Joe Consumer doesn't care what plug his car has just as long as he can charge. From the average person's perspective, the Tesla network is huge, but so is EA combined with the other CCS based options... So as long as their vehicle plugs into half of the chargers out there and has an adapter for the other half of the chargers, Joe is happy...

Some knowledgeable fence-sitters deciding if it's the right time to buy may use the charge port as a deciding factor. Most people will not.

The high inflation we've had over the past couple years and higher interest rates now to counter will have a much greater impact on expensive vehicle purchases.

Better to lease? Maybe. Leasing has always been somewhat attractive with EVs because the tech is advancing quickly. But that really comes down to how many miles someone usually drives and several other factors. I for sure would have preferred to lease my first Tesla, but there were no reasonable leases that worked for me and the amount of mileage we intended to put on the car.

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