Will Ford's NACS announcement cause people not to buy EVs with CCS until 2025 ??

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That's what the author said - better to lease than buy now.

But if you lease a Ford EV, you have no possibility of lease buyout, should by chance it hold its value better than Ford projected.

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[hturnerfamily]

there are still CHadeMO vehicles out there, so like most any 'hardware' technology, you'll find some that pay it little mind, since it works, while a few will certainly chill until their NACS option comes to fruition... yes, I can imagine that in early 2025 when my wife's '22 Kia Sorento PHEV comes to the end of it's lease, we will NOT be looking for ANY vehicle with CCS, if there is a three-row seated SUV EV without it... but, if not yet, then it'll probably be the KIA EV9, or Mercedes EQB, either with CCS.

 

[BuildBackBadder]

I think most people currently buying EVs prefer to charge at home and avoid charging elsewhere altogether. Fleet owners will charge at their place of business. Next thing you know we'll have folks stating don't buy any EV and wait for solid state batteries.

 

[Bills R Electric]

I disagree with the author. CCS chargers are not going to suddenly disappear in 2 years. The rollout of EV's with NACS is going to be just as slow as it is with current EV rollouts. It will likely be 2030+ before "NACS dominance" is a thing. I'm glad we are moving over to it, but your average Joe don't give 2 sh*ts what connector is on the car. They do, however, care about what their monthly payment will be. And with EV prices trending higher along side interest rates...well there's your problem.

I think once more affordable (sub $30k) EV's start rolling off the line in numbers we will see that there is still high demand. The market for $50k+ EV's is pretty well saturated. Prior to the lightning, the most I paid is around $35k for a Honda Pilot. It took a lot of convincing to get the Mrs. on board with such an expensive vehicle.

I really want to upgrade our Pilot but wife wants another 3 row (car pooling for school and fewer cars when family visits). Not sure I want to drop another $60k+ right now when we are already pushing it with the truck. So, I'll wait another couple years to see what comes out and let prices settle down. I'm greatly interested to see what Ford does for the 3 row EV they've been touting.

".....once more affordable (sub $30k) EVs start rolling off the line...."

I don't know when, or if that will happen in the US.

Batteries, which LG, CATL, Pansonic, Tesla, etc have been working on for years are super expensive. Something like solid state batteries at 1/3 the cost are a dream, but over the next 10 years battery improvements will most likely be incremental. Look how long it has taken Tesla just to get the 4680 in parity with the 2170, let alone better.

IMO the best case is a quality $37,500 EV.....coupled with a $7,500 credit at point of sale.
A $30,000 out the door price will tip the tide. The average sale price of a new vehicle in the US is about $45,000.

 

[Maquis]

".....once more affordable (sub $30k) EVs start rolling off the line...."

I don't know when, or if that will happen in the US.

Batteries, which LG, CATL, Pansonic, Tesla, etc have been working on for years are super expensive. Something like solid state batteries at 1/3 the cost are a dream, but over the next 10 years battery improvements will most likely be incremental. Look how long it has taken Tesla just to get the 4680 in parity with the 2170, let alone better.

IMO the best case is a quality $37,500 EV.....coupled with a $7,500 credit at point of sale.
A $30,000 out the door price will tip the tide. The average sale price of a new vehicle in the US is about $45,000.

I think Edmunds had the 2022 average at something like $48,500. Several EVs are available below that, especially with the tax credit. It’s tipping!

 

[Bills R Electric]

I think Edmunds had the 2022 average at something like $48,500. Several EVs are available below that, especially with the tax credit. It’s tipping!

I have been a proponent of EVs for many years now, own 2, and I am still amazed at the # of people that I talk to that are so opposed to buying an EV.

Yet, they can't really say why. The concept of even considering buying 1 EV for the household is just not something they can fanthom.

Human nature is funny. Especially in the United States. It is probably just going to take many years of them seeing EVs, riding in various friend's EVs, seeing EV charging stations every few miles etc before they will be open to the idea. Sadly.

 

[Zprime29]

Next thing you know we'll have folks stating don't buy any EV and wait for solid state batteries.

Talk about a pipe dream, lol. I feel for them, they'll be waiting for a long time...

Sticker plus interest rates. Plus, for those of us in AZ, higher registration fees. My 21 MME, had registration of about $25/year. The 23 Lightning (acquired in 22), is around $400. Now they are $1,000 and $1,400 respectively.

Yeah, everything I would have saved in fuel costs was nullified by the increase in registration. No regrets, but writing that check hurt a little.

 

[metroshot]

I have been a proponent of EVs for many years now, own 2, and I am still amazed at the # of people that I talk to that are so opposed to buying an EV.

Yet, they can't really say why. The concept of even considering buying 1 EV for the household is just not something they can fanthom.

Human nature is funny. Especially in the United States. It is probably just going to take many years of them seeing EVs, riding in various friend's EVs, seeing EV charging stations every few miles etc before they will be open to the idea. Sadly.

Same here.

About 15 years ago before EVs became popular, I still could not understand why clean diesel did not take off like it does in Europe.

Clean diesel (DEF) engines produces way less exhaust pollution than ICE engines - thought that all the tree huggers and environmentalists would be all over it.

But now that EVs have taken ahold, still not understanding why a slow adoption....

Human nature not to change seems to be the norm...

 

[MM in SouthTX]

I don't know when, or if that will happen in the US.

It would happen if an automaker put out a 100-mile range small SUV or mid-size sedan. If a family is going to have 2 cars anyway, why not have one that is limited to local driving? Then you they could offer, and the consumer might buy, an EV with 1/3 the battery costs (perhaps ($10,000 less) and 1/3 the battery environmental impact of one that goes 300 miles.

Maybe that's where the $30,000 EV unicorn lives.

 

[Bills R Electric]

It would happen if an automaker put out a 100-mile range small SUV or mid-size sedan. If a family is going to have 2 cars anyway, why not have one that is limited to local driving? Then you they could offer, and the consumer might buy, an EV with 1/3 the battery costs (perhaps ($10,000 less) and 1/3 the battery environmental impact of one that goes 300 miles.

Maybe that's where the $30,000 EV unicorn lives.

I don't see anyone wanting to build that type of car for the US market.

Chevy Bolt? Canceled. Not worth building.
Nissan Leaf? Canceled. Not worth building.

I can't blame any automaker from not wanting to build such an inexpensive car for the US Market. The safety requirements and regulations in the US make sub $29,000 cars zero profit. Right now they have to figure out the other price points first. Maybe in 7-8 years they can use what they have learned, but I think it is a long shot.

 

[Amps]

It would happen if an automaker put out a 100-mile range small SUV or mid-size sedan. If a family is going to have 2 cars anyway, why not have one that is limited to local driving? Then you they could offer, and the consumer might buy, an EV with 1/3 the battery costs (perhaps ($10,000 less) and 1/3 the battery environmental impact of one that goes 300 miles.

Maybe that's where the $30,000 EV unicorn lives.

I bought a high trim EV in February with real range around 200 miles, 48A home charging, heated/cooled seats, Bose, sunroof, and Super Cruise. It's going to net out under $30k after the tax credit. It's a Chevy Bolt and it's a great car.

As noted above, canceled. With apologies to Yogi Berra, they aren't going to build it anymore because they can't build enough of them.

 

[Toby57]

Some of you have hit the nail on the head. Changing from ice to ev is a change of lifestyle. Too many, that change is unacceptable. I have nothing against ev, but to many it is too big of a change.
An ice can go at anytime. So can an ev. The ev sooner or later will have to stop and charge.
While the ev is charging, be it in your garage or a charger in the Applebees parking lot that ev is unusable. That is their frame of mind, and to them unacceptable.
Making the ev go farther between charges or charge faster is not going to change that frame of mind.
It can all be worked around, but most are unwilling to put up with the changes and make it work.

 

[hturnerfamily]

I had the same problem changing from microsoft to my Chromebook... but, it works... many said it couldn't, and wouldn't... but it does. I will never go back.

few folks who are 'against' EVs are not ones to 'dive in' to that type of vehicle... they just can't imagine themselves having to 'sit' for 30 minutes while their car charges... they can't 'deal' with range anxiety, since they don't see fast chargers yet on every corner like gas stations. They can easily overlook ALL the other positives, no matter how many, and how great... because they just aren't going to do it.

 

[Zprime29]

they aren't going to build it anymore because they can't build enough of them.

Actually, I think they cancelled it because they don't want it to compete with the upcoming equinox EV.

 

[Monkey]

Same here.

About 15 years ago before EVs became popular, I still could not understand why clean diesel did not take off like it does in Europe.

Clean diesel (DEF) engines produces way less exhaust pollution than ICE engines - thought that all the tree huggers and environmentalists would be all over it.

Well, "clean" diesel isn't as clean as it was marketed to be and it's still an ICE. All new diesel vehicles here in the US under a certain GVWR have been required to be "clean" using a DEF system for over 15 years now. My diesel trucks all have it.

Why did it not catch on? Well, like I said, it's not that clean... It's a different emissions spectrum than burning gasoline, produces far more inert carbon (not CO2) than gas and contributes to smog more than newer gas engines. Diesel is expensive and has been generally more so than gasoline for the past 18 years or so... Diesel Exhaust Fluid is expensive, volatile and just sucks. Most automakers that tried brining their "clean" diesel engines over from Europe to our market found it very difficult to tweak them to meet EPA emissions standards.. Hence why VW, and later a few others, were caught cheating.

But now that EVs have taken ahold, still not understanding why a slow adoption....

Human nature not to change seems to be the norm...

EV's are scary to a lot of people. They don't trust new tech, they worry about how to charge, they believe all the nonsense propaganda that tells them how EVs are actually worse for the environment. People are bad at math, they can read all the numbers, specs, spreadsheets, etc.. that shows them an EV will have a lower total cost of ownership even though it's a bit more to buy up front and they'll still just look at the price and think it's too expensive... people are dumb.

Adoption is accelerating, just slower than it should be. I think covid, supply chain issues, inflation surging, etc.. are all slowing the EV market. And not just EV's, all vehicles.

We need more affordable EVs and less reliance on tax credits... The people who need affordable EVs can't benefit from the tax incentives, so it's just pointless marketing to that demographic.

The base SR Model 3 can be had for just under $33K *IF* you can reap the entire benefit of the federal tax credit. And for most who can, many state tax credits will also apply and bring the price below $30K. I can buy the car here in CO for $29K if I have enough tax liability to get the whole $7500. That's a < $30K car to me... But to someone who won't owe that much in taxes in a year, it's a $37K car. That's not how this should work.

The new Chevy Equinox EV has a base price of $30K... After the federal tax credit.

And $30K gets tossed around a lot. That's still not an "affordable" car for many. But it's a start. With recent inflation, $30K is the new $20K anyhow.

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