Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Pioneer74]

2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
2025: 160,000 on the TE1 platform
2026: Maybe 240,000?
2027: Maybe 320,000?

Currently there are 120,000+ reservations. I reserved mine on Aug 1, with a #11118xxx. This is convenient for me, because I wasn't planning to buy until the end of 2023, into 2024 anyway.

Good luck with those numbers. The current Lightning plant can only run 12 to 14 trucks an hour.

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[Maxx]

I think most times if you've researched and looked at reviews on google/yelp and the like you are reasonably safe. I would also suggest a conversation with the dealership general manager or owner.

Mach-e forum had listed my dealer as No MSRP and they had good reviews. However, three of the four sales people I dealt with were uninformed, unhelpful and unresponsive when I asked for email communication which was a shocker since I was more worried about too much contact from them. It may be the current hot market. I finally walked in to talk to general manager and a sales man sitting by the door like a Doberman kept running interference. Despite me insisting to meet the manager and manager a few steps away knowing I wanted to meet him, it did not happen. The sales man confirmed in person and in email later that they plan to have $10K-$15K markup knowing I was a reservation holder and will not be buying off their lot. Even if there is a chance that sales man is another uninformed individual and information I was given may be incorrect, I know I have to change dealership. I just don’t want to be in a position to have to do it more than once and want to make sure I understand what is the likelihood of bait and switch and my recourse in dealing with it. So far, I have gotten a lot of helpful info from you guys. Thanks a bunch.

p.s. Is GM different from sales manager? If yes, which one would you want to get the commitment from?

 

[sotek2345]

Good luck with those numbers. The current Lightning plant can only run 12 to 14 trucks an hour.

Not sure where you got those numbers - I haven't seen them anywhere. That said, they do line up. 14/hr. is good for ~80k/yr. assuming 24hr (3 shift) operations 5 days a week with 2 weeks off / year (common for line maintenance). ~120k/yr. if they go 7 days a week.

 

[greenne]

Mach-e forum had listed my dealer as No MSRP and they had good reviews. However, three of the four sales people I dealt with were uninformed, unhelpful and unresponsive when I asked for email communication which was a shocker since I was more worried about too much contact from them. It may be the current hot market. I finally walked in to talk to general manager and a sales man sitting by the door like a Doberman kept running interference. Despite me insisting to meet the manager and manager a few steps away knowing I wanted to meet him, it did not happen. The sales man confirmed in person and in email later that they plan to have $10K-$15K markup knowing I was a reservation holder and will not be buying off their lot. Even if there is a chance that sales man is another uninformed individual and information I was given may be incorrect, I know I have to change dealership. I just don’t want to be in a position to have to do it more than once and want to make sure I understand what is the likelihood of bait and switch and my recourse in dealing with it. So far, I have gotten a lot of helpful info from you guys. Thanks a bunch.

p.s. Is GM different from sales manager? If yes, which one would you want to get the commitment from?

My dealer is a small town dealer in a suburb of Albany NY. I chose this dealer because they have been in business a very long time, and I wanted to support a small dealer. If I'm going to order and pay MSRP anyway..I might as well support the little guy. (Usually the big guys win on lot sales because they have inventory and can spread overhead).

After my reservation I received an email from the dealership General manager thanking me for my reservation with his phone number. The dealer is small so it may not have a separate sales and general manager(gm).

I then gave him a call. We had a nice chat and I was nice but firm on what I expected. I did tell them why I chose their dealership and explained that they had good reviews and I assumed if they had been in business this long they build relationships with customers. I am also a Ford guy and this likely will not be my last Ford I will buy(hint, hint).

The general manager did acknowledge that he expected markups at other dealers(i.e. ADM) and he responded "we don't do that stuff here". I told him because it was a hot model I expected to pay full MSRP, nothing more.. no ADM, no add ons. He said no problem.

I don't expect things to be formalized until I go in to order, but I believe I got the message across. I don't expect any problems
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My take on your situation-- the fact they wouldn't respond to you as a customer worries me. If you have to change dealership I would go ahead and do it sooner than later. I would say try from the general manager. He/she is the top dog at the dealer.(Usually the boss of the sales manager)

 

[sotek2345]

Maybe someone going to one of this Lightning tour events can ask the Ford rep to confirm or deny the production numbers.

 

[F-150 Prius]

details on Ford's plans to ramp up production … I assume this is old news, but it's the most recent I've seen with details.

 

[Pioneer74]

Not sure where you got those numbers - I haven't seen them anywhere. That said, they do line up. 14/hr. is good for ~80k/yr. assuming 24hr (3 shift) operations 5 days a week with 2 weeks off / year (common for line maintenance). ~120k/yr. if they go 7 days a week.

I work at DTP. The plant was only set up to run 12 jobs per hour. They are trying to get it to 14. We already run 7 days a week. 3 crews max production is around 87k a year, with no down weeks.

We would be able to run Super Weekends to get more production, but you have to shut down sooner or later for maintenance.

 

[Blainestang]

For the Mach E release, the reservation system had four sets of number servers working simultaneously. Each had 1000 numbers. That meant 5456 was a later reservation than 7005. We don’t know how many number servers were working in parallel for the Lightning launch but I'm guessing at least 5.

Right. I understand that. They're still outliers. The number of people who have posted 10813xxx - 10820xxx numbers is far greater than the number of people who have posted <10813xxx numbers. So, my assumption is that those numbers are not all in use for Lightning OR some are given out in a different way. Perhaps there was 1 server giving out numbers <10813xxx and several giving out >10813xxx or whatever, but they're much rarer and they shouldn't be if all those numbers are reservable Lightnings. There might be a bunch of Mach Es or Broncos mixed into there, for instance.

Someone on FB said they received 10820860.

That's >10813xxx. I'm saying the ones <10813xxx are rare compared to >10813xxx. They were either sporadically given out in that range, or they were given out some other way, IMO.

 

[F-150 Prius]

2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
2025: 160,000 on the TE1 platform
2026: Maybe 240,000?
2027: Maybe 320,000?

Currently there are 120,000+ reservations. I reserved mine on Aug 1, with a #11118xxx. This is convenient for me, because I wasn't planning to buy until the end of 2023, into 2024 anyway.

Those are the numbers (2022 thru 2025) that Ford has released to the press.
I'm not optimistic I'll get one in '22, but fingers crossed.

Good luck with those numbers. The current Lightning plant can only run 12 to 14 trucks an hour.

Ford said they're dropping "another" $850 million into increased production capacity.
If I recall correctly, they also said there would be other PHEVs and a BEV or two (maybe under the Lincoln brand) so Ford is balls outs on EVs … I think all the major carmakers are staring down the barrel of legislation around 2030 time frame.

 

[F-150 Prius]

I'm saying the ones <10813xxx are rare compared to >10813xxx. They were either sporadically given out in that range, or they were given out some other way, IMO.

10830xxx and I clicked on the button within milliseconds to get the order in … : |
I guess I'm looking at 2023 … ffs … anyway … who has the low numbers at the Deli?

 

[Pioneer74]

Those are the numbers (2022 thru 2025) that Ford has released to the press.
I'm not optimistic I'll get one in '22, but fingers crossed.

Ford said they're dropping "another" $850 million into increased production capacity.
If I recall correctly, they also said there would be other PHEVs and a BEV or two (maybe under the Lincoln brand) so Ford is balls outs on EVs … I think all the major carmakers are staring down the barrel of legislation around 2030 time frame.

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

 

[F-150 Prius]

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

I think what you're saying is valid and the same thing happened at Tesla … Musk says "one million!" and the people who have to make it happen know he's just talking.
I don't know, but my guess would be there has to be a new plant for the new TE1 platform and they have to drop some drive-train options and build the Lightning on the same line as they build say a PHEV along with the existing Hybrid to replace maybe the 2.7 EcoBoost?
Seems to me, Ford could be building a million Lightnings in 2022 and not keep up with demand.
Offer it with a factor bed cap so it's a van with side-load windows and they have a "last mile" half ton. Rivian is building 800,000 of those for Amazon.
Obviously every freight and fleet operator wants to swap out their 10-20 mpg gas vehicles that do less than 300 miles per route, especially city and suburban slow-n-go averaging speeds that suit electric vehicles (with a lot of braking, not a lot of high speed head-wind and a lot of the time an EV is stationary during a delivery or at an intersection when the battery is not wasting energy like an ICE.)
Whatever the reason(s) for Ford not building more Lightnings sooner, it's not for lack of demand.

 

[sotek2345]

Ford can say whatever they want about increasing production. The building is only so big. They can only increase the size in one direction, because they built it in the middle of the Rouge with plants on all sides. And even if they did it won't amount to very much floor space.

And another important fact is that the Lightning bodies come out of the same Body and Paint plants as the gas truck and they can only run so fast.

There are only 2 ways to substantially increase Lightning production numbers. Build a whole brand new plant complete with Body and Paint plants or change over an existing gas truck Final assembly building to BEV.

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

 

[BottledLightning]

Hello! Just wanted to jump in very quickly. I work at a dealership and order nearly all of our retail units (that would be a one on one build with a customer, not stock which ends up on lots). I've been following this and other forums for some time and just would like to chime in briefly. On all factory orders you should always expect a long wait even under normal circumstances on a vehicle Ford builds constantly.

While it is fun to speculate where you might fall I strongly urge you to be ready for shockingly long waits. Parts are king when it comes to production and since it takes years to plan for commodity purchasing if the orders don't come in right on the head with Ford's estimates (i'm talking mix of standard vs large batteries, Platinum vs Pro etc) then even an early reservation holder (in regards to time places) can be kicked far back if they pick excessively high demand items. I'm super excited to start ordering Lightnings for our guests but definitely not looking forward to how much I'll have to realign customer expectations.

My advise in a nutshell, set yourself up to be pleasantly surprised and not constantly bummed.

 

[Pioneer74]

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

Batteries may be a constraint now. But when they aren't, the current assembly plant will be.

Reuters reported that Ford intends an annual production of 80,000 in 2024, up from its previous target of more than 40,000.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...ord-f-150-lightning-ford-electric/8254023002/

That seems about right. 3 crews, 50 weeks a year = 84k.

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