Estimates on 2022 lightning resale value in 2 years?

[RickLightning]

$51,943.27

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[MRButtler]

We're going to trash our curious rarity beyond use or fashion. it's ok. She is making 10% a week.

 

[Amps]

Whatever equity I have in the lightning is my down payment, I’m trading the lightning in, no cash due at signing, so the lightning has to be worth 50k to match this deal.

There’s no way I’d keep the lightning past 2 more years, once my cybertruck or Ram Rev is available, I’ll be making that switch to a 500+ mile range truck. I’m really not a fan of the lightning after owning it for 7 months now and my needs have changed where I need a vehicle that can tow 4000lbs 250 miles preferably.

It’s looking like the lease is a better option financially, the Lightning’s value in the future is too unstable and with a lease, I know exactly where I’ll be at in 2 years.

I think this should have been your first post.

You could find the residual for Lightnings at the approximate mileage you think you'll have in two years to use as your projected value and run it through some of the various calculators like at LEASEHACKR. Residuals are usually determined by neutral third parties. It's basic math once you know the residual and money factor. There aren't a lot of details in the numbers posted. I didn't even see the cash value of your trade-in.

https://leasehackr.com/calculator

My gut tells me that it's close with either decision. You'll never be happy keeping the Lightning and it doesn't suit your needs. That alone should be enough to make your decision.

 

[Replika]

I worked for CarMax for many years. They understand resale market extremely well. I have been tracking 2022 prices with them. Lightning are doing very well. This is only 1 model year old but is selling over original retail price. They are turning and CarMax does not negotiate so they are selling for what they are listing.

https://www.carmax.com/car/23986212


2022 Ford F150 Lightning XLT
$67,998*6K miles

I sold my Lightning in March, and was following CarMax offers for a couple months prior. Prior to that following the overall Lightning sales market.

The trucks sit for months on CarMax. Longer than any vehicle I have seen. For my Lightning 12k miles, loaded ‘22 Lariat 82k MSRP the final offers were 65, then 62k. I sold it for 69 (by far the highest offer), and it sat for two months before selling, price dropped to 71.

During the time of the offers CarMax was listing above MRSP. Typically they try to make 6k off of a vehicle, but some like the Lightning have a lot of extra buffer. Someone else corroborated this about their sold truck on the forum btw.

I totally agree that the CarMax price is a great indicator of the market, probably the best. Anyone wanting to know the real price should stop by. They also price drop every couple weeks, btw.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I sold my Lightning in March, and was following CarMax offers for a couple months prior. Prior to that following the overall Lightning sales market.

The trucks sit for months on CarMax. Longer than any vehicle I have seen. For my Lightning 12k miles, loaded ‘22 Lariat 82k MSRP the final offers were 65, then 62k. I sold it for 69 (by far the highest offer), and it sat for two months before selling, price dropped to 71.

During the time of the offers CarMax was listing above MRSP. Typically they try to make 6k off of a vehicle, but some like the Lightning have a lot of extra buffer. Someone else corroborated this about their sold truck on the forum btw.

I totally agree that the CarMax price is a great indicator of the market, probably the best. Anyone wanting to know the real price should stop by. They also price drop every couple weeks, btw.

I agree that they were sitting. Every Tesla was sitting when Tesla shocked the used car market with their price drop. That created uncertainty for the industry and the consumer around BEV resale. That is easing.

I like BAT Auctions also as a good guide although sample size is smaller they provide good historical for us.
https://bringatrailer.com/ford/f-150-lightning-electric/

 

[detansinn]

I am sorry. I just busted a gut laughing at the notion that the Cybertruck is going to have any impact on the F150 Lightning market. The thing is as much a truck as the Model X and Y are SUVs.

The Lightning does now have the distinction of being able to use Tesla’s supercharger network, which isn’t going to hurt values one bit. If the choice is between a Dodge Ram (always inferior to an F series), restricted to CCS, versus the Ford that has a larger charging network, the F150 clearly wins.

It sounds like the OP already made up their mind anyway.

Personally, I am unconcerned with depreciation. It’s a truck. It’s not an investment. I’ve had mine for less than two months and racked up nearly six thousand miles — I am not a lease candidate. I love the thing and lucky to have paid for it outright. I am looking forward to the ROI of driving it for a while.

 

[RickLightning]

I sold my Lightning in March, and was following CarMax offers for a couple months prior. Prior to that following the overall Lightning sales market.

The trucks sit for months on CarMax. Longer than any vehicle I have seen. For my Lightning 12k miles, loaded ‘22 Lariat 82k MSRP the final offers were 65, then 62k. I sold it for 69 (by far the highest offer), and it sat for two months before selling, price dropped to 71.

During the time of the offers CarMax was listing above MRSP. Typically they try to make 6k off of a vehicle, but some like the Lightning have a lot of extra buffer. Someone else corroborated this about their sold truck on the forum btw.

I totally agree that the CarMax price is a great indicator of the market, probably the best. Anyone wanting to know the real price should stop by. They also price drop every couple weeks, btw.

Nearest CarMax is 103 miles. None in SE Michigan. Pass.

When we sold our 2021 Mach-E, I priced all the available services. I also listed it on Cars.com and Autotrader.com. Sold to a dealer 5 hours away that blew away everyone by thousands of dollars, and came and got it. They ended up losing money on it. I made thousands in profit.

 

[jimfigler]

I’m considering getting out of my lightning for several reasons but I’m curious what everyone thinks a 2022 Lightning Lariat Standard range with ford copilot 360 active 2.0 (msrp 72k) will be worth in 2 years? Think above or below 50k? If below which is what I’m thinking, I will be trading my lightning in on a 2 year lease that saves me $350/month, so I need the lightning to be worth 50k or more for the lease to not make sense.

You need a crystal ball but I’m just guessing at 44k -48k

 

[jimfigler]

Ya but between 2019 and now the whole world flipped upside down. Pretty much any vehicle you bought in 2019 has held it's value way better than in the past.

Exactly I made $7k on my plain old 2019 Ram 1500 classic lease when it came due in 2021. That is no longer happening.

 

[vandy1981]

my needs have changed where I need a vehicle that can tow 4000lbs 250 miles preferably.

You're going to be waiting more than 2 years for that.

 

[astricklin]

You're going to be waiting more than 2 years for that.

They're going to buy a plug in hybrid Jeep Grand Cherokee

 

[Replika]

Nearest CarMax is 103 miles. None in SE Michigan. Pass.

When we sold our 2021 Mach-E, I priced all the available services. I also listed it on Cars.com and Autotrader.com. Sold to a dealer 5 hours away that blew away everyone by thousands of dollars, and came and got it. They ended up losing money on it. I made thousands in profit.

If it’s not convenient, don’t use it. They (often) have the best price. I buy and sell a lot of vehicles.

CarMax consistently has the best read on the market. Only sold a couple to dealerships and Carvana recently. My buying dealer made a bigger risk to where they almost lost money on the truck. Some dealers were in the high 50s.

In any event, this is a real world sale. Take from it what you will. The trucks might seem impossibly hard to get, but given that they’ve produced so few, demand is not very strong. Opening up the order books despite “200,000 pre-orders” is more proof of that. It was one of the more difficult vehicles for me to sell.

 

[vandy1981]

They're going to buy a plug in hybrid Jeep Grand Cherokee

We are considering doing the same, although the Tesla news may make us hold on.

 

[JSJ]

I think original Lightning resales are going to be a wildcard. If inflation goes unchecked and 10% MSRP bumps across brands keep happening, the truck is gonna be worth a lot more than $50k in a few years when everything equivalant new is selling for $100k+

On the other hand, if inflation/supply chain constraints calm down and Chevy/others can actually hit their price targets and really come out with a 350 mile truck for $40-50k, then obviously the value of used Lightnings is going to absolutely plummet as the tech rapidly becomes more advanced and affordable.

That is my fear. The odds are against the lightning especially a 2022 lariat standard range to hold well, especially be at or above 50k after 3 years of being on the market.

While I am unhappy with the lightning, the leased vehicle isn’t something I’d want either, it all comes down to numbers for me and what makes sense financially.

 

[ExCivilian]

When you compared an $8K difference between the GC and your $42K payoff it doesn't seem like you accounted for the taxes and fuel costs, which would make the two pretty close even at $42K.

Also, there isn't any 500 mile BEV truck coming out in the next two years and I'd argue there will never be a 350 mile BEV truck for $50K.

As for what the F150 will be worth in a couple years? Even the compliance vehicles that are coming out of their 8/100K HV battery warranties aren't worthless. A six year old VW eGolf is still over $20K and a silly Fiat e500 are still relatively expensive for what amounts to a 50 mile vehicle.

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