Got order invite today (4/12/2022)

[PV2EV]

This truck has turned out to be a roller coaster for me. I had been waiting for the right EV to replace my Volt, and being a Chevy guy, the Lightning just was not on my radar, and took a bit of time to grow on me. What attracted me was the Pro ER and HIS. I reserved late, and my dealer did not know me, so I had no hope of getting one this year.

Having experienced the first and second let down (No Pro ER for you, and no way to make a fleet order happen quickly), I justified to myself getting an XLT, although cloth seats don’t work on a farm. Then priority happened, and that sucked. Then ordering opened and the XLT dried up. I informed my dealer I would step up to a higher trim, in case that helped get an invite, not thinking it would. I sat back and expected I would likely end up with a choice between the Lightning and Silverado given I had an early reservation on that.

I got the surprise email on the 4/12, and justified another five-figure increase in price, placing an order for a loaded Lariat ER, keeping it just under $80k in case the BBB tax credit happens. The dealer estimated I would likely get the truck in August, and I was okay with anytime this year. However, now that it looks like I will likely loose half the federal credit, and no one seems to be clear on the Oregon credit for anything beyond the Pro, I am rethinking the purchase.

While I was okay at each step of justification, if I look back, I went from a $40k farm truck (Pro ER with $10k state a federal rebate), to a $76k luxury truck (only $3,750 federal credit) that I will baby. Added to this, HIS is looking like a debacle. Overpriced, undersized, and unavailable to me (neither house in a SunRun state), it may not be viable for me at any point.

While I am still stoked to have gotten an invite given how late I reserved, had I known this is where I would end up, I might have worked to get my reservation moved to fleet, and then waited for MY23 Pro ER. I am wondering if there is anyway to do this now, or thinking much more about a MY24 Silverado, given the lack of tax credit, and all the above.

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[TaxmanHog]

While I was okay at each step of justification, if I look back, I went from a $40k farm truck (Pro ER with $10k state a federal rebate), to a $76k luxury truck (only $3,750 federal credit) that I will baby. Added to this, HIS is looking like a debacle. Overpriced, undersized, and unavailable to me (neither house in a SunRun state), it may not be viable for me at any point.

While I am still stoked to have gotten an invite given how late I reserved, had I known this is where I would end up, I might have worked to get my reservation moved to fleet, and then waited for MY23 Pro ER. I am wondering if there is anyway to do this now, or thinking much more about a MY24 Silverado, given the lack of tax credit, and all the above.

I think you are still going to see the credit, don't give up yet, another round of scheduling is yet to happen, IMHO all deliveries of MY22 will happen in tax year 2022 (FIRST USE), though your other concerns have a place, only you know what's best for you. Good luck which ever road you travel!!

 

[jpepper07]

This truck has turned out to be a roller coaster for me. I had been waiting for the right EV to replace my Volt, and being a Chevy guy, the Lightning just was not on my radar, and took a bit of time to grow on me. What attracted me was the Pro ER and HIS. I reserved late, and my dealer did not know me, so I had no hope of getting one this year.

Having experienced the first and second let down (No Pro ER for you, and no way to make a fleet order happen quickly), I justified to myself getting an XLT, although cloth seats don’t work on a farm. Then priority happened, and that sucked. Then ordering opened and the XLT dried up. I informed my dealer I would step up to a higher trim, in case that helped get an invite, not thinking it would. I sat back and expected I would likely end up with a choice between the Lightning and Silverado given I had an early reservation on that.

I got the surprise email on the 4/12, and justified another five-figure increase in price, placing an order for a loaded Lariat ER, keeping it just under $80k in case the BBB tax credit happens. The dealer estimated I would likely get the truck in August, and I was okay with anytime this year. However, now that it looks like I will likely loose half the federal credit, and no one seems to be clear on the Oregon credit for anything beyond the Pro, I am rethinking the purchase.

While I was okay at each step of justification, if I look back, I went from a $40k farm truck (Pro ER with $10k state a federal rebate), to a $76k luxury truck (only $3,750 federal credit) that I will baby. Added to this, HIS is looking like a debacle. Overpriced, undersized, and unavailable to me (neither house in a SunRun state), it may not be viable for me at any point.

While I am still stoked to have gotten an invite given how late I reserved, had I known this is where I would end up, I might have worked to get my reservation moved to fleet, and then waited for MY23 Pro ER. I am wondering if there is anyway to do this now, or thinking much more about a MY24 Silverado, given the lack of tax credit, and all the above.

If you get the truck in August then you will get the full $7500 federal tax credit. Even if ford sells the 200k vehicle this quarter than next quarter still gets full credit. July, August, September are in the 3rd quarter. I am not so sure ford will sell the 200k vehicle in this quarter. I hope not to make it easier for all of us. I have a 8/29 build date. Which means I may not see it until October.

Hopefully they manage to keep it under 200k and then ramp up quickly after that.

 

[PV2EV]

I think the half rebate was the straw for me. As I have no other options now, I will sit tight and see what happens. One reason for me to wait, is I have really grown to like this truck as I read this site, and reviews, and IMO the Silverado WR is FUGLY!

The month long wait for new builds has been painful as well. If this site did not exist, I guess I would just wait for an email, now likely in June.

 

[PiMatrix]

It seems like if Ford has the 200,000th EV arrive to a dealer on July 1, then the full rebate is available to not only 2022 models but many 2023 models shipped though Dec31st, 2022. I think this is highly likely because there will be some missing parts, some factory installed bed liners. I also think I saw that Mach-e have some parts delays. After all it's 5-6 weeks until July 1st and how many Lightnings are in customers hands?? I think we are all good until Dec 31st to receive and/or pay for the truck and receive the Fed credit.

It also makes sense from a business perspective to do this to keep happy customers.

 

[sotek2345]

It seems like if Ford has the 200,000th EV arrive to a dealer on July 1, then the full rebate is available to not only 2022 models but many 2023 models shipped though Dec31st, 2022. I think this is highly likely because there will be some missing parts, some factory installed bed liners. I also think I saw that Mach-e have some parts delays. After all it's 5-6 weeks until July 1st and how many Lightnings are in customers hands?? I think we are all good until Dec 31st to receive and/or pay for the truck and receive the Fed credit.

It also makes sense from a business perspective to do this to keep happy customers.

Remember, it isn't just pure battery electric vehicles, but plug in hybrids too.

 

[metroshot]

Remember, it isn't just pure battery electric vehicles, but plug in hybrids too.

Oh yeah, the Escape PHEV counts towards the 200K...

I loved my $7500 back in 2019 when I got my Honda PHEV - still loving it - runs perfect - no issues - no battery degradation but then the battery is warranted for 10 years!

 

[sotek2345]

Oh yeah, the Escape PHEV counts towards the 200K...

I loved my $7500 back in 2019 when I got my Honda PHEV - still loving it - runs perfect - no issues - no battery degradation but then the battery is warranted for 10 years!

Don't forget the Lincoln PHEVs too

 

[PiMatrix]

Remember, it isn't just pure battery electric vehicles, but plug in hybrids too.

Yes, true, and it will likely be close. But two things give me confidence the 200K delivery will go past June 30th. First was Ford CEO Jim Farley statement two weeks ago -

Ford CEO Jim Farley recently told The Verge that he expects The Blue Oval will run out of these EV tax credits by late 2022 or early 2023. Unsurprisingly, he’s pushing for changes before that happens, however. “I spend some high proportion of my day talking to legislators and leaders about the importance of helping our customers – any customers – transition to [EV] technology,” Farley said. “China has done it. Europe has done it. It’s not even a Ford thing. If we want to be competitive as a country, if we want to attract EV investments from foreign companies here in the U.S., if we want to localize the raw material supply chain, we have to have consumer incentives.”
Reference: https://fordauthority.com/2022/05/f...pects-ev-tax-credits-to-dry-up-by-early-2023/

The second item is the numbers. Ford sold 123,030 EVs from 2010-June 2020. They sold 37,550 from July 2020 to Dec 31, 2021. This means they have 39,420 remaining Fed EV tax credits remaining for 2022. In first quarter though March 31, 2022 Ford sold 6,734 Mach-Es, though April the total is 10,539. e-Transit sales though April are 1,575. The only other Ford EV or PEV I know still being produced now is the 2022 Ford Escape Plug-in. Unfortunately Ford does not seem to publish production numbers on this model. So as of April 31 we have total Ford EV sales of 172,694 Plus any Ford Escape PHEVs sold. I don't think this car is a best seller as it was greatly delayed a year due to the Ford Escape battery fires in the European model called the Kuga. Also some of these Mach-e make in Mexico maybe getting shipped to Europe.

So best guess/question is does Ford deliver to customer 200,000-172,694 = 27,306 cars (subtract Escape PHEVs if you know it) by June 30th this quarter. Given how few people on this board have received their lightnings with less than 6 weeks to go until end of quarter, I think not. So if they hit the 200K in July-Sept, then rebate good until Dec 31.

If anyone has numbers on the Escape PHEV sales for 2022 let us know. Also, will any of these Lightnings produced in US ship overseas?. I read half of the Mach-e's maybe getting shipped to Europe from Mexico plant so those will not count.

 

[Roy2001]

This truck has turned out to be a roller coaster for me. I had been waiting for the right EV to replace my Volt, and being a Chevy guy, the Lightning just was not on my radar, and took a bit of time to grow on me. What attracted me was the Pro ER and HIS. I reserved late, and my dealer did not know me, so I had no hope of getting one this year.

Having experienced the first and second let down (No Pro ER for you, and no way to make a fleet order happen quickly), I justified to myself getting an XLT, although cloth seats don’t work on a farm. Then priority happened, and that sucked. Then ordering opened and the XLT dried up. I informed my dealer I would step up to a higher trim, in case that helped get an invite, not thinking it would. I sat back and expected I would likely end up with a choice between the Lightning and Silverado given I had an early reservation on that.

I got the surprise email on the 4/12, and justified another five-figure increase in price, placing an order for a loaded Lariat ER, keeping it just under $80k in case the BBB tax credit happens. The dealer estimated I would likely get the truck in August, and I was okay with anytime this year. However, now that it looks like I will likely loose half the federal credit, and no one seems to be clear on the Oregon credit for anything beyond the Pro, I am rethinking the purchase.

While I was okay at each step of justification, if I look back, I went from a $40k farm truck (Pro ER with $10k state a federal rebate), to a $76k luxury truck (only $3,750 federal credit) that I will baby. Added to this, HIS is looking like a debacle. Overpriced, undersized, and unavailable to me (neither house in a SunRun state), it may not be viable for me at any point.

While I am still stoked to have gotten an invite given how late I reserved, had I known this is where I would end up, I might have worked to get my reservation moved to fleet, and then waited for MY23 Pro ER. I am wondering if there is anyway to do this now, or thinking much more about a MY24 Silverado, given the lack of tax credit, and all the above.

Same boat here. But no, you won't get a EV truck for under $50k for at least 2 years. For silverado? No way, they will put 90K model on sale first.

 

[Sdctcher]

Yes, true, and it will likely be close. But two things give me confidence the 200K delivery will go past June 30th. First was Ford CEO Jim Farley statement two weeks ago -

Ford CEO Jim Farley recently told The Verge that he expects The Blue Oval will run out of these EV tax credits by late 2022 or early 2023. Unsurprisingly, he’s pushing for changes before that happens, however. “I spend some high proportion of my day talking to legislators and leaders about the importance of helping our customers – any customers – transition to [EV] technology,” Farley said. “China has done it. Europe has done it. It’s not even a Ford thing. If we want to be competitive as a country, if we want to attract EV investments from foreign companies here in the U.S., if we want to localize the raw material supply chain, we have to have consumer incentives.”
Reference: https://fordauthority.com/2022/05/f...pects-ev-tax-credits-to-dry-up-by-early-2023/

The second item is the numbers. Ford sold 123,030 EVs from 2010-June 2020. They sold 37,550 from July 2020 to Dec 31, 2021. This means they have 39,420 remaining Fed EV tax credits remaining for 2022. In first quarter though March 31, 2022 Ford sold 6,734 Mach-Es, though April the total is 10,539. e-Transit sales though April are 1,575. The only other Ford EV or PEV I know still being produced now is the 2022 Ford Escape Plug-in. Unfortunately Ford does not seem to publish production numbers on this model. So as of April 31 we have total Ford EV sales of 172,694 Plus any Ford Escape PHEVs sold. I don't think this car is a best seller as it was greatly delayed a year due to the Ford Escape battery fires in the European model called the Kuga. Also some of these Mach-e make in Mexico maybe getting shipped to Europe.

So best guess/question is does Ford deliver to customer 200,000-172,694 = 27,306 cars (subtract Escape PHEVs if you know it) by June 30th this quarter. Given how few people on this board have received their lightnings with less than 6 weeks to go until end of quarter, I think not. So if they hit the 200K in July-Sept, then rebate good until Dec 31.

If anyone has numbers on the Escape PHEV sales for 2022 let us know. Also, will any of these Lightnings produced in US ship overseas?. I read half of the Mach-e's maybe getting shipped to Europe from Mexico plant so those will not count.

The phase-out process starts one quarter after the 200,000 EV sales cap (Final Delivery to Customer NOT Shipping or Manufacture Date) is reached, meaning Ford's credit could be reduced to $3,750 as soon as Oct. 1, 2022 if they were to reach the 200,000 limit by June 30, 2022.

That 50% Tax Credit would last Two Quarters until as soon as April 1, 2023, and then drop to a Final 25% ($1,875) as soon as Oct. 1, 2023, and then to Zero at July 1, 2023.

The Tax Credit is NOT a Cash Rebate but rather a Credit against your tax bill for that Tax Year.

More likely is that Ford will reach the in limit Q3, 2022 (July 1, 2022 to October 1, 2022) if they manage deliveries carefully from now until the end of June.

***From IRS:
"The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period."

 

[sotek2345]

The phase-out process starts two quarters after the 200,000 EV sales cap (Final Delivery to Customer) is reached, meaning Ford's credit could be reduced to $3,750 as soon as Jan. 1, 2023 if they were to reach the 200,000 limit by June 30, 2022. Ford could have no more credits to offer car buyers as soon as next January 1, 2023. More likely is that Ford will reach the limit Q3, 2022, in which case the Tax Credit would be $3,750 in Q1, 2023, then Zero beginning April 1, 2023.

Sorry, you have it off a bit. The phase out start on the 2nd quarter after the limit is met.

So if Ford hits 200k before July 1, than the reduced credit starts with deliveries after October 1. If they hit the limit after July 1, then it lowers as of January 1, 2023. You only get current quarter and next quarter at the full credit.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

 

[astricklin]

I don't think anyone has gotten this totally correct for the tax credits. According to the document above, the quarter they hit 200k and then the following quarter still get the full credit. Then the next 2 quarters get half credit. Then it goes to 1/4 credit for an additional two quarters.
So the most likely scenario is that Ford sells the 200k vehicle q3 (July, Aug, Sept) 2022. The full credit will apply on vehicles delivered through 12/31/22. Then half credit ($3750) for deliveries in the first half of 2023, and 1/4 credit ($1875) for the second half of 2023.

If they manage to hit the 200k before q3 (which if they are smart they will time deliveries accordingly so they don't). The everything above will end three months sooner.

Also both Tesla and GM (the only companies who have so far run out of credits) lowered the price of their vehicles when the credit lowered. Now I understand with the current Auto market, this is unlikely to happen, but maybe there won't be a price increase for 2023.

 

[PiMatrix]

I don't think anyone has gotten this totally correct for the tax credits. According to the document above, the quarter they hit 200k and then the following quarter still get the full credit. Then the next 2 quarters get half credit. Then it goes to 1/4 credit for an additional two quarters.
So the most likely scenario is that Ford sells the 200k vehicle q3 (July, Aug, Sept) 2022. The full credit will apply on vehicles delivered through 12/31/22. Then half credit ($3750) for deliveries in the first half of 2023, and 1/4 credit ($1875) for the second half of 2023.

If they manage to hit the 200k before q3 (which if they are smart they will time deliveries accordingly so they don't). The everything above will end three months sooner.

Also both Tesla and GM (the only companies who have so far run out of credits) lowered the price of their vehicles when the credit lowered. Now I understand with the current Auto market, this is unlikely to happen, but maybe there won't be a price increase for 2023.

Agree, my post and sotek2345 only cover what happens until year end but you are correct that all is not lost once the full 7,500 credit runs out. Ford clearly will have much higher parts cost especially batteries, on other hand much of the initial costs of manufacturing are fixed costs so the incremental cost for the later cars are reduced as they scale up. They have also probably entered into long term contracts with suppliers and much of the parts are common with ICE which is a big advantage. I think for the people who placed preorders they will scale prices so that the rebate reduction (most likely starting Jan '23 given July 1 is so close and slow deliveries so far) does not hurt sales. Right now I think market share is more important to them vs providing an opening for other competitors.

Here is a gov't page that tracks all the models and rebates post 200K as you describe above

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

 

[Roy2001]

Yeah assume Ford reaches 200k during Q3, we can still get $7500 by 12/31.

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