How long will our batteries last?

[Maxx]

I bought a new one in Feb, 2009 and we averaged about 20K per year for 9.5 years or so until it was hit and totaled (no one was hurt). We replaced that with a 2010 with about 88K on it and we've added about 110K over the last 5 or so years and I bought a 2012 Prius C in 2016 with about 60K on it and it has about another 130K on it most of which as come over the last 4-5 years because my kid had it for her last year of college and the "running around with friends years" immediately after graduation. Long story short, we averaged about 20K a year on each of them with the 2010 now very idle and the 2012 still being driven a lot.

Sorry for the accident. Glad everyone was OK.

The reason I asked was to see how old the batteries were by year and not by cycle.

I have never owned a Toyota product but if my truck gives me a lot of headaches and Toyota has a good EV by then, I may give it a shot next. So far my Lightning has been rock solid.

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[RickLightning]

[


I always respond the same:

“About the same as an engine and transmission replacement from what I hear, but I’ve got a couple nearing 200,000 miles and haven’t needed to replace one yet so I’m not exactly sure”

I find that response usually sparks a more genuine conversation about the EV.

I've used the engine replacement question at times. But I have no time for the "I'm a smartass and don't have any interest in learning reality" people.

 

[husky10101]

Yeah, but it's such a different landscape, and not just because they are different components. Today, if I need to replace a battery out of warranty, where would I even be able to buy one. IIRC you were seeking a totaled lightning a few months ago for your company to study the batteries because you can't buy one except at a dealer parts department at insane prices.

My TJ just had to have a new tranny added. I was able to take it to my reliable transmission specialist. He did it for about $3k cause he was able to source an upgraded rebuilt part, and he specializes in transmissions and differentials, so he has the contacts, and his workmanship is high quality.

Tesla's have been on the market a lot longer, maybe it's not fair to count them, but in this case I'm going to and say that EVs have been popular for about 12 years now. We have yet to see EV battery specialist shops pop up. How much longer till we do and we start seeing "renewed" batteries on the market being sold by EV battery specialist mechanics? Until we see them, we're all king of gambling on the unknown.

Tesla started building roadsters 16 years ago in 2008 and the majority of them are still going strong. Some with over 300,000 miles on the batteries. An owner has one with 328,000 miles on it and had the batteries tested and still has over 93% of the original battery life. I owned a 2016 Model X and there are now 3 independent shops that can repair and replace Tesla batteries. If the number of Lightnings on the road ever reach the number of Teslas then I am sure we will see independent shops pop up.

 

[Danface]

Sorry for the accident. Glad everyone was OK.

The reason I asked was to see how old the batteries were by year and not by cycle.

I have never owned a Toyota product but if my truck gives me a lot of headaches and Toyota has a good EV by then, I may give it a shot next. So far my Lightning has been rock solid.

Come to think of it, this is the first new "American" vehicle I've ever purchased and only the 3rd I ever owned (counting the 2 old beat up vans I used to work out back in the 80's). I've owned a lot of Japanese cars and generally they all ran well, where inexpensive to keep on the road and reliable.

 

[Texas Dan]

Interesting website on EV battery longevity and replacement costs.

 

[Texas Dan]

We all know buying virtually any type of vehicle is a bad investment. With that said, based on what I am seeing on a new 2024 F150 Lightning Platinum lease of $92K @ 12K miles per year:

24 months: 47% Residual - $43,240.00
* * * *
60 months: 28% Residual - $25,760.00

Based on a new 2024 F150 ICE Platinum lease of $79k @ 12K miles per year:

24 months: 55% Residual - $43,615.00
* * * *
60 months: 41% Residual - $32,513.00

There are factors in this obviously, but this is what I am seeing/was told. This could also change year to year based on market conditions, and how ICEs and EVs are selling.

The auto dealerships got burned really bad on 1st gen EV leases, battery technology was changing so fast the EVs were obsolete before the end of the leases. The residuals were adjusted to account for the rapidly changing technology but EV technology is much more mature now and doesn’t change as quickly. I made a killing buying out the lease on my 2019 Kia Niro EV.

You can’t really predict resale values by looking at EV lease residual values any more.

 

[Maxx]

Come to think of it, this is the first new "American" vehicle I've ever purchased and only the 3rd I ever owned (counting the 2 old beat up vans I used to work out back in the 80's). I've owned a lot of Japanese cars and generally they all ran well, where inexpensive to keep on the road and reliable.

My lightning replaced a 20 year old Nissan Frontier that was in great running condition when I got rid of it. I never did any major work on it. I took many trips over 2000 miles with the wife’s subaru when it had over 100K on it with full confidence it would get us back home. I owned a lot of GMs (Buicks and Oldsmobiles) and loved most of them. I only owned one Ford (Fairmont) which I paid $300 for in 1987. That one had transmission problem. Never thought I would buy another Ford but here I am and so far happy with my Lightning. An electric maveric or Tacoma probably would be a better choice since my wife refuses to drive the Lightning due to it's size.

I still don’t know how to think of Lightning when it comes to longevity. On one hand most of my tech pieces (camcorders, phones, tablets, …) that had batteries in them were really disposable machines and were never repaired. On the other hand life has been a lot better since I switch from a gas lawnmower to electric. Hopefully we will be around in 20 years to see what happens to our Lightnings.

 

[ExCivilian]

Unbelievable! We just showed you that the Lightning battery has life expectancy of 40 years and you fall on the old nonsense argument that replacement batteries are too expensive. There are so many things wrong with your postulations like you don’t even replace packs, you replace modules and just about every Lightning battery pack is still under warranty.

No, you did not adequately show an accurate representation of the Lightning battery pack's lifespan. At best, you extrapolated an average life expectancy based on a statistical inference. Generally speaking, one can't project into the future like you did with statistical information but that's beside the point since the battery "pack" itself isn't what historically fails on EVs.

Also, to your next points, it's simply not true that owners can replace modules rather than packs in the way you are implying. It's not safe to install a new module into an old pack, which is why battery packs on all our other battery-powered devices are effectively "dead" when a singular cell drops enough voltage. But, again, that's a red herring since most people's concerns aren't about a "dead" module in and of itself--they're concerned about the truck either not moving for some reason or, most likely, significantly reduced range. Those same studies indicating average wear over lifetime of EVs indicate an approximate 1% loss in battery capacity per year after an initial rapid loss in the first few.

The greatest damage to batteries occurs because of time and your 40 year projection simply doesn't wash unless you're going to try and convince people a truck that can only drive 50 miles round trip is worth keeping on the road. Day 1 our trucks have a sane range of 60% of capacity and after 40 years that would be down to roughly 20%...assuming everything else around the battery doesn't experience a malfunction over those decades of use.

Tesla started building roadsters 16 years ago in 2008 and the majority of them are still going strong. Some with over 300,000 miles on the batteries. An owner has one with 328,000 miles on it and had the batteries tested and still has over 93% of the original battery life.

This isn't accurate. There were less than 2,500 Roadsters built and of them less than half remain on the road. I know of one Roadster with the mileage you cited and you also described that one example. I have not heard that "some" exist with that mileage but even if I had that isn't a particularly persuasive argument and 1,200 examples doesn't provide any statistical strength anyway.

 

[OMO7]

No, you did not adequately show an accurate representation of the Lightning battery pack's lifespan. At best, you extrapolated an average life expectancy based on a statistical inference. Generally speaking, one can't project into the future like you did with statistical information but that's beside the point since the battery "pack" itself isn't what historically fails on EVs.

Also, to your next points, it's simply not true that owners can replace modules rather than packs in the way you are implying. It's not safe to install a new module into an old pack, which is why battery packs on all our other battery-powered devices are effectively "dead" when a singular cell drops enough voltage. But, again, that's a red herring since most people's concerns aren't about a "dead" module in and of itself--they're concerned about the truck either not moving for some reason or, most likely, significantly reduced range. Those same studies indicating average wear over lifetime of EVs indicate an approximate 1% loss in battery capacity per year after an initial rapid loss in the first few.

The greatest damage to batteries occurs because of time and your 40 year projection simply doesn't wash unless you're going to try and convince people a truck that can only drive 50 miles round trip is worth keeping on the road. Day 1 our trucks have a sane range of 60% of capacity and after 40 years that would be down to roughly 20%...assuming everything else around the battery doesn't experience a malfunction over those decades of use.


This isn't accurate. There were less than 2,500 Roadsters built and of them less than half remain on the road. I know of one Roadster with the mileage you cited and you also described that one example. I have not heard that "some" exist with that mileage but even if I had that isn't a particularly persuasive argument and 1,200 examples doesn't provide any statistical strength anyway.

When 1200 accounts for roughly half of the total number built then how does it not provide any statistical strength?

 

[ExCivilian]

When 1200 accounts for roughly half of the total number built then how does it not provide any statistical strength?

Ignoring the atrocious 50% failure rate those data represent, here is how one determines the necessary sample size for an appropriate level of statistical strength: https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis-testing/sample-size-power-analysis/

 

[Texas Dan]

No, you did not adequately show an accurate representation of the Lightning battery pack's lifespan. At best, you extrapolated an average life expectancy based on a statistical inference. Generally speaking, one can't project into the future like you did with statistical information but that's beside the point since the battery "pack" itself isn't what historically fails on EVs.

Also, to your next points, it's simply not true that owners can replace modules rather than packs in the way you are implying. It's not safe to install a new module into an old pack, which is why battery packs on all our other battery-powered devices are effectively "dead" when a singular cell drops enough voltage. But, again, that's a red herring since most people's concerns aren't about a "dead" module in and of itself--they're concerned about the truck either not moving for some reason or, most likely, significantly reduced range. Those same studies indicating average wear over lifetime of EVs indicate an approximate 1% loss in battery capacity per year after an initial rapid loss in the first few.

The greatest damage to batteries occurs because of time and your 40 year projection simply doesn't wash unless you're going to try and convince people a truck that can only drive 50 miles round trip is worth keeping on the road. Day 1 our trucks have a sane range of 60% of capacity and after 40 years that would be down to roughly 20%...assuming everything else around the battery doesn't experience a malfunction over those decades of use.

So you’re saying that the 70% of EVs built 2011 still on the road with the original battery pack is a lie? Or are you saying it’s not possible to predict future performance based on past history? Or are you saying that we are all just too dumb to understand these things?

Your comment about modules is ridiculous. Based on your analogy we would have to replace all four tires if one tire has a flat. As long as modules are within operating parameters there’s no reason to replace them. I guess you haven’t any of the threads on this forum that talk about module replacements.

 

[ExCivilian]

So you’re saying that the 70% of EVs built 2011 still on the road with the original battery pack is a lie?

That's not what the research you cited claimed. You misrepresented a number of salient points in the research cited.

Or are you saying it’s not possible to predict future performance based on past history?

Correct. Even if one could project into the future using statistical inference, it couldn't be done in the way you calculated or presented it.

Or are you saying that we are all just too dumb to understand these things?

My comments were directed to your incorrect analysis--I never extended them to anyone else nor did I attribute them to your lack of intelligence.

If this is the tone you want to take the conversation, I'm not interested.

Your comment about modules is ridiculous. Based on your analogy we would have to replace all four tires if one tire has a flat. As long as modules are within operating parameters there’s no reason to replace them.

The analogy you constructed doesn't make sense but funny enough if one does experience a flat tire when all four have worn to a certain threshold the suggestion would be to buy all four new ones. At minimum, the tires have to be within spec across the same axle on a two-wheel drive vehicle (not for AWD like our truck, though, our trucks require the new tire be within spec across axle and front/rear), which would tend to underscore my point rather than undermine it. In short, it's simply not accurate to state that someone who wears all four tires down considerably needs only replace one in the event of a flat.

That said, I'm not going to explain how battery chemistry works to you as it's outside my expertise but there are battery experts in this thread who will corroborate my point that replacing a module is not as simple as placing a new handful of cells within an older "pack" comprised of Lithium Ion cells.

You can also look it up...not that I believe it would change your perspective much since you're clearly being argumentative here as we should all be aware of the importance of cell balancing and wear leveling at this point in our lives especially in a thread discussing battery cell longevity.

 

[Texas Dan]

That's not what the research you cited claimed. You misrepresented a number of salient points in the research cited.


Correct. Even if one could project into the future using statistical inference, it couldn't be done in the way you calculated or presented it.


My comments were directed to your incorrect analysis--I never extended them to anyone else nor did I attribute them to your lack of intelligence.

If this is the tone you want to take the conversation, I'm not interested.


The analogy you constructed doesn't make sense but funny enough if one does experience a flat tire when all four have worn to a certain threshold the suggestion would be to buy all four new ones. At minimum, the tires have to be within spec across the same axle on a two-wheel drive vehicle (not for AWD like our truck, though), which would tend to underscore my point rather than undermine it. In short, it's simply not accurate to state that someone who wears all four tires down considerably needs only replace one in the event of a flat.

That said, I'm not going to explain how battery chemistry works to you as it's outside my expertise but there are battery experts in this thread who will corroborate my point that replacing a module is not as simple as placing a new handful of cells within an older "pack" comprised of Lithium Ion cells.

You can also look it up...not that I believe it would change your perspective much since you're clearly being argumentative here as we should all be aware of the importance of cell balancing and wear leveling at this point in our lives especially in a thread discussing battery cell longevity.

Okay, so you’re the expert. Please explain to us exactly how the Lightning batteries will last. Please provide complete justification for your analysis.

Please also go into all those other threads that talk about getting their modules replaced and explain to them what a horrible mistake they are making.

 

[husky10101]

No, you did not adequately show an accurate representation of the Lightning battery pack's lifespan. At best, you extrapolated an average life expectancy based on a statistical inference. Generally speaking, one can't project into the future like you did with statistical information but that's beside the point since the battery "pack" itself isn't what historically fails on EVs.

Also, to your next points, it's simply not true that owners can replace modules rather than packs in the way you are implying. It's not safe to install a new module into an old pack, which is why battery packs on all our other battery-powered devices are effectively "dead" when a singular cell drops enough voltage. But, again, that's a red herring since most people's concerns aren't about a "dead" module in and of itself--they're concerned about the truck either not moving for some reason or, most likely, significantly reduced range. Those same studies indicating average wear over lifetime of EVs indicate an approximate 1% loss in battery capacity per year after an initial rapid loss in the first few.

The greatest damage to batteries occurs because of time and your 40 year projection simply doesn't wash unless you're going to try and convince people a truck that can only drive 50 miles round trip is worth keeping on the road. Day 1 our trucks have a sane range of 60% of capacity and after 40 years that would be down to roughly 20%...assuming everything else around the battery doesn't experience a malfunction over those decades of use.


This isn't accurate. There were less than 2,500 Roadsters built and of them less than half remain on the road. I know of one Roadster with the mileage you cited and you also described that one example. I have not heard that "some" exist with that mileage but even if I had that isn't a particularly persuasive argument and 1,200 examples doesn't provide any statistical strength anyway.

Where do you get the facts that that only 1/2 are on the road. There are many Tesla's on the road with 200,000+ miles and the batteries are fine if you take care of them. I sold a 2016 with 169,000 miles on it and I paid to have the Tesla shop rate the battery for me so I could accurately state the battery life when I sold it and it was rated as still having a bit over 97% of the new battery life.

Also, Ford designed the battery in separate packs and they replace individual modules all the time with no issues. The older Tesla’s have to be replaced as a full battery and the new Tesla’s with the battery as part of the frame, good luck.

The greatest damage to batteries occurs when folks charge to 100% all the time and leave it sit charged at 100%. Also charging at superchargers is very hard on the batteries due to how fast they charge and the heat generated. Even Tesla recommends folks to not use superchargers as their only charging method but unfortunately their sales folks sell them to folks who don't have access to home chargers, IE: apartments and etc. Even my 6 month old Samsung phone instructions recommends charging to 80% in order to make the batteries last.

 

[ExCivilian]

Okay, so you’re the expert. Please explain to us exactly how the Lightning batteries will last. Please provide complete justification for your analysis.

Please also go into all those other threads that talk about getting their modules replaced and explain to them what a horrible mistake they are making.

I am an expert in statistical analysis and research methodology--but as it pertains to crime and crime rates--not batteries as I already clearly stated.

But generally speaking, without knowing the methodology of the research or the variables involved in the research cells (an area of a spreadsheet where data are entered, not a battery "cell") it's not informative to simply take all of the EVs on the road, divide them by an overall failure rate, and then project a completely different vehicle's failure rate out into the future like you attempted to do.

Just to give some people an example of why this doesn't work, the study you cited actually states that EVs from 2011 to 2015 had a 13% failure rate, not 1.5% average as you claimed in this thread. Additionally, looking at just the 2011s they found the failure rate was over 30%.

One of the problems with this study, and the one conducted last year by the same group, is that last year the failure rate was 1.5% whereas this year it's 2.5%. We could take more at length about why that might be but the bottom line for us, since we're using rough generalities I suppose, is that the failure rate nearly doubled in the span of a single year. Extrapolating into the future like you did would indicate to us that next year this same group using the same methodology would "discover" that EVs actually fail closer to a 4% rate. Also, keep in mind all of these data are done without accounting for warrantied replacements, which I would argue provides an under-reporting of the true failure rate.

There is also a logical problem inherent in how you're presenting these data. On the one hand, you're arguing we can use these data from older vehicles and older battery technology to extrapolate what our current EVs might do in the future based on the premise that newer technology has extended the life of battery packs (the cited study makes this argument explicitly). That, however, would mean that older EV technology is not predictive of what our current batteries might/might not do in the future.

The oldest packs in our vehicles are less than 1.5 years old. They haven't reached a point of wear that would introduce the problems I was referring to in my post. Additionally, neither you nor I have any knowledge about what the techs do when they install a "new" module into the pack. The modules are likely the relative age as the installed pack and the techs probably conduct some kind of wear leveling when they install them.

Like I said, what I wrote is well-known and well-researched already and if you were interested in learning about it instead of arguing your point you'd have looked it up already.

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