[Kearny Mesa] Ford Lightning Update: Order Bank Date Pushed Back

[denny@KMFord]

Thanks!

I called 4 different dealers in VA yesterday to ask virtually the same questions.. Many may be surprised at just how different the information received from each dealer is.

I asked if they were aware of an ordering date. One said they just don't know. Another said 26th. I asked if he was going by internet rumors like the rest of us Ninnie's, or if he had something more. He referred to dealer access software and website and said he was looking at it live, with me on phone.

I asked about X plans even though I knew no one knows. One said definitely (eye roll), another said they don't know but info should come out with ordering, and one said they wouldn't know until they are about to be delivered, next year.

I asked what order the dealer themselves were going to go about filling out actual orders - will they go by a time date stamp, or something else. One said they are going to go by reservation number, lowest first (but as we know, that doesn't equate to time stamp - those involve three factors, time date stamp/the dealer allocation of the chosen dealer/and trim selected at reservation time; as explained to me from some at Fords corporate number) - so a dealer going down the list with reservation number is illogical, but that's how THEY are doing it.

Another dealer said they are getting a list of the order of people to fill orders directly from Ford.

I asked each when the actual lock in prices will be once we make orders - will it be when we make order? Will it be at VIN assignment? Will it be at delivery? Well, one said at order it's locked. One said next year. Etc.

Bottom line, dealers are not Ford. They are dealers with people who read more than the average Joe, but the "more" they read is just as flimsy as the stuff the ever age Joe's read... and/or... there are many many uninformed, inexperienced folks at the 3000 dealers across America.

I think we like to latch on to what a dealer says, because we get the sensation they are more of the actual Ford than we are. And they are, but that doesn't mean they are always reliable. Some speculate and talk as if it's truth. Some speculate and disclaim it's speculation.

Everything seems to be interpreted differently as well.

This is in no way dissing dealers, but my point being, until things come from Ford via press release, or some other Ford communication, I personally just take it as a grain of salt.

Lastly, to piggy back off @BottledLightning, the document says TBD now. When it did say 26th.

Nothing about that document saying TBD now means it was pushed back. Nor does it mean it was pushed forward. It doesn't mean anything other than TBD. All one can say as fact is that Ford doesn't want the date in there at the moment. It is not fact to go beyond that and say what TBD means in terms if pushed back or brought forward. It simply means the date isn't there for anyone to see anymore.

This is what I received yesterday when reaching out to my Zone Rep:

Interesting timing as I just got an update. Lightening roll out is being delayed (timing TBD). A communication on that is yet to go out. You are first to know! The roll out will happen in waves around 2 weeks apart. The details guiding the waves is based on build and specs. Essentially, Ford wants to better align Lightening build with how the Lightening reservations are built out. So customers will be invited to convert their order as it aligns with the Lightening build

If that is the case, how is Ford going to determine who gets an invite to order in a "wave" since they currently have no indication (or clue) on current model demand? Are they going to put early reservations on hold since the model they might want isn't aligned with Ford's build timing? This is getting messier and more convoluted. Do you have anything to back up what you're saying? I'm not saying you're wrong, its just that your statements seem contradictory to what a lot of others are reporting their dealers are saying.

This is the response I got regarding the "waves" system:

As of now, they have not communicated to our team what the “waves” system will be. Once they announce the waves system, I will let you know.

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[BennyTheBeaver]

Not sure if you will know anything on this, but given only a small number of reservation holders will be able to get 2022 trucks, will everyone else have to wait until next year and then order a 2023 (or longer and order a 2024 / 2025)? Or will we all order now (in waves) and then get converted / re-order next year?

All of this is speculation, though, one way this might work is:

1. Ford allows everyone with a reservation to place an order.
2. Ford groups all orders by model type (or battery type)
3. Ford organizes each of those lists by Reservation Timestamp
4. Ford builds each model in order of the lists simultaneously

That would ensure an equal sample size of trucks on the market and allow Ford to keep building lists if there are model specific part shortages.

 

[GreasyLightning47]

Lightening roll out is being delayed (timing TBD). A communication on that is yet to go out. You are first to know! The roll out will happen in waves around 2 weeks apart. The details guiding the waves is based on build and specs. Essentially, Ford wants to better align Lightening build with how the Lightening reservations are built out. So customers will be invited to convert their order as it aligns with the Lightening build

If our dealer invited us to convert a reservation to an order, does that mean we are apart of "the chosen ones" ?

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

If our dealer invited us to convert a reservation to an order, does that mean we are apart of "the chosen ones" ?

I doubt it. Ford's goal is to convert as many reservations to orders as possible. That includes anyone way down the list, you'll just get a very delayed delivery date.

 

[denny@KMFord]

Not sure if you will know anything on this, but given only a small number of reservation holders will be able to get 2022 trucks, will everyone else have to wait until next year and then order a 2023 (or longer and order a 2024 / 2025)? Or will we all order now (in waves) and then get converted / re-order next year?

[/QUOTE]

So, after living through the Bronco roll out, I am not sure what the total number built will be or if there will be commodity constraints during production either. So far YTD Ford has produced roughly 26,000 Bronco's if I had to guess 2022 production will probably fall around 35-40K units again depending on Covid and commodities.

Now Ford was also able to produce almost 110K Bronco Sports for 2021. Ultimately, I think it will all come down to batteries.

This is 100% my uneducated opinion backed up with 0 facts just some logic and years or experience.

 

[denny@KMFord]

All of this is speculation, though, one way this might work is:

1. Ford allows everyone with a reservation to place an order.
2. Ford groups all orders by model type (or battery type)
3. Ford organizes each of those lists by Reservation Timestamp
4. Ford builds each model in order of the lists simultaneously

That would ensure an equal sample size of trucks on the market and allow Ford to keep building lists if there are model specific part shortages.

I would agree 100% that is a very educated approach to the scheduling. Fingers crossed that they learned alot of valuable information with the Mache, Bronco, and Maverick launches to make this as smooth as possible. Time will tell that is for sure.

 

[HtownHog]

This is what I received yesterday when reaching out to my Zone Rep:

Interesting timing as I just got an update. Lightening roll out is being delayed (timing TBD). A communication on that is yet to go out. You are first to know! The roll out will happen in waves around 2 weeks apart. The details guiding the waves is based on build and specs. Essentially, Ford wants to better align Lightening build with how the Lightening reservations are built out. So customers will be invited to convert their order as it aligns with the Lightening build


This is the response I got regarding the "waves" system:

As of now, they have not communicated to our team what the “waves” system will be. Once they announce the waves system, I will let you know.

any chance you will correct your zone rep on his spelling of 'Lightning"?

 

[Sdctcher]

Lightening roll out is being delayed (timing TBD). A communication on that is yet to go out. You are first to know! The roll out will happen in waves around 2 weeks apart. The details guiding the waves is based on build and specs. Essentially, Ford wants to better align Lightening build with how the Lightening reservations are built out. So customers will be invited to convert their order as it aligns with the Lightening build

How does Ford know what build I will order? I am an early Reservist, did not receive any survey, and have never been asked what trim I am buying.

 

[jbirdzee]

I would agree 100% that is a very educated approach to the scheduling. Fingers crossed that they learned alot of valuable information with the Mache, Bronco, and Maverick launches to make this as smooth as possible. Time will tell that is for sure.

Do dealers typically receive timely feedback from the plant if the buyer has requested options that are going to be problematic for scheduling? It would be nice to know beforehand that the configurations we order are or are not the high demand ones - rather than wait several months only to learn that's why the build hasn't been scheduled.

BTW: Thank you for weighing in on these forums it's nice to have your additional insight.

 

[gorwell]

How does Ford know what build I will order? I am an early Reservist, did not receive any survey, and have never been asked what trim I am buying.

I think there is just confusion in what this is addressing. The "waves" in this instance, is probably about the builds timeline, not the initial orders. So, lots of people order XLT w/ extended range.... but not many order the Lariat w/ Extended range. they would build the XLT's as a priority to meet the higher demand.

 

[Trukbed]

Whatever I put down on day 1 of reservation (may 20), is not what I intend to order (trim level). It was 5 months ago. Lots of new information on trim, options have come since then. Articles. Reviews. Press events. Biden drove the thing.

I don't even know WHAT I put for trim.

Is Ford, or the dealers, going to get the actual spec'd up orders and then submit THOSE spec'd up orders in the proper "waves"?

Seems ridiculous the decision of who goes in what "wave" would be based on trim levels picked when no one even REALLY knew what they were going to end up getting come order time.

Who knows.

 

[sotek2345]

Whatever I put down on day 1 of reservation (may 20), is not what I intend to order (trim level). It was 5 months ago. Lots of new information on trim, options have come since then. Articles. Reviews. Press events. Biden drove the thing.

I don't even know WHAT I put for trim.

Is Ford, or the dealers, going to get the actual spec'd up orders and then submit THOSE spec'd up orders in the proper "waves"?

Seems ridiculous the decision of who goes in what "wave" would be based on trim levels picked when no one even REALLY knew what they were going to end up getting come order time.

Who knows.

You didn't select anything when you made your reservation. None of us did.

 

[BottledLightning]

Do dealers typically receive timely feedback from the plant if the buyer has requested options that are going to be problematic for scheduling? It would be nice to know beforehand that the configurations we order are or are not the high demand ones - rather than wait several months only to learn that's why the build hasn't been scheduled.

BTW: Thank you for weighing in on these forums it's nice to have your additional insight.

Our ordering program does not indicate what exact items are causing delays. Only a general communication of delay items can enlighten us to that, or if Ford includes wait times based upon trim like they do on the Mach-E build and price.

 

[Trukbed]

You didn't select anything when you made your reservation. None of us did.

When I ordered a Bronco, it asked which trim I was interested in. Couldn't remember if the Lightning did this time around. I just figured it did.

 

[denny@KMFord]

Do dealers typically receive timely feedback from the plant if the buyer has requested options that are going to be problematic for scheduling? It would be nice to know beforehand that the configurations we order are or are not the high demand ones - rather than wait several months only to learn that's why the build hasn't been scheduled.

BTW: Thank you for weighing in on these forums it's nice to have your additional insight.

I would 2-3 times a week I get an email from the Centralized Field Order Scheduling people outlining what is scheduling if there are any commidity constraints, and stuff like that. They will also say sometimes ithings like "Please note best availability does not include all available configurations. The best availability should be used to determine the best configuration available to schedule your allocation due to plant needs."

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