MY2022 Lightning production estimates - further consideration

[HtownHog]

So production numbers have been debated significantly on this forum but I haven't heard anyone mention the MY does not equal Build Year consideration. Latest unverified forecast is 10,000-15,000 for MY2022 and 80,000 MY2023 which seems like a huge increase for YOY production, however, most vehicle manufacturers cut over to the next model year in August/September. My guess is trucks won't start getting built till March so only six months of build out MY2022 doesn't mean 10,000 trucks for Calendar Year 2022. Does Ford follow most other manufacturers MY timelines? Am I wrong?

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[rodhx]

Model year timelines are really just arbitrary. The industry tends toward the "september-ish" changeover but there are many times when that is not the case. Good point about model year vs calendar year though.

 

[buttah_hustle]

This echoes my thoughts on the Model-year switch and how many are built in MY 22-23.

If they start producing consumer units in March, then there are 6 months of production, averaging a couple of grand or so trucks a month, 12k total, which is in line with the median of estimates I am seeing. But how many of those will roll out of the factory from March to June versus June to September? Then in MY 23 they'll continue ramping up pretty geometrically to 6-7k trucks a month

How fast they ramp up in MYs 22 and 23 will have an massive effect on the delivery timelines for all of us.

I'm assuming Fleet trucks are outside of the equation. Could be wrong on that.

Would love to hear someone who has worked in scaling automotive production!

 

[Garbone]

My guess would be they get to someplace in the 20s by End of run in December depending on batteries. I imagine it is a happy time to be a battery producer. Booming business.

 

[Sdctcher]

My guess would be they get to someplace in the 20s by End of run in December depending on batteries. I imagine it is a happy time to be a battery producer. Booming business.

Or if battery builders are Sloppy might be Booming Batteries.

Hoping for Quality over Quantity.

 

[lancersrock]

My guess would be they get to someplace in the 20s by End of run in December depending on batteries. I imagine it is a happy time to be a battery producer. Booming business.

Are Ford and GM building plants to build their own batteries? I could be mistaken i just thought i had read that somewhere.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Are Ford and GM building plants to build their own batteries? I could be mistaken i just thought i had read that somewhere.

They are. But that’ll take years. Good to see it happening!

 

[Losi]

I’m no expert in battery chemistry, but manufacturing your own batteries is one thing, resourcing the raw materials is quite another:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/11/20/world/china-congo-cobalt-explained.amp.html

 

[greenne]

Not sure if this exact report has been posted yet...but appears like the goal is to be producing 80k trucks a year in January 2023 which is a full 12 months earlier than original(modified) plan

https://www.autonews.com/retail/ford-caps-f-150-lightning-reservations-near-200000-production-nears

"Privately, however, Ford has told suppliers it expects production volume of 80,000 vehicles per year earlier than expected -- by January 2023 – with capacity for up to 88,000, according to a memo viewed by Automotive News."

 

[Nick Gerteis]

From zero per month to 7K per month in less than a year, that’ll be a n impressive ramp up!

 

[WhiteBolt]

80k/52weeks=1538.5 per week or 308 per day.
(not counting holidays or unscheduled shutdowns)

 

[Pioneer74]

80k/52weeks=1538.5 per week or 308 per day.
(not counting holidays or unscheduled shutdowns)

I can break it down even better.

14 jobs per hour

2 10 hour shifts per day.

280 per day.

6 days a week = 1680 per week.

1680 x 49 weeks = 82,320 a year.

Doesn't include possible Super shifts, not having a 2 week summer shutdown or working Christmas week.

 

[Pioneer74]

Also keep in mind that we're not launching at 14 JPH. It will be closer to 9 or 10 and I don't believe the plant will have 3 full production crews until 2023.

 

[HtownHog]

Also keep in mind that we're not launching at 14 JPH. It will be closer to 9 or 10 and I don't believe the plant will have 3 full production crews until 2023.

Thank you Pioneer, great to hear from someone with direct knowledge. Any opinion on what 2022 numbers will actually be? 15k seems light but ramp up is always a challenge. Also model year changeover May shorten things?

 

[Pioneer74]

Thank you Pioneer, great to hear from someone with direct knowledge. Any opinion on what 2022 numbers will actually be? 15k seems light but ramp up is always a challenge. Also model year changeover May shorten things?

I don't want to make any guesses on a number. I personally think Ford is going to produce every one they can, but the battery is probably going to be the constraint.

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