Why isn’t the Lightning getting more of the gas F150 market?

[broncoaz]

I wrote some software (well, spreadsheet functions) that model everything from the future cost of energy for the vehicle to the cost of maintenance to depreciation (first year and subsequent years), insurance, etc., etc., etc. I typically run 10,000 to 1 million simulations on each vehicle I'm comparing.

Here's an example from a comparison between BEV and ICE Lariats. In this scenario, 85% of the time the Lightning was cheaper than the ICE. It all depends on variables, but I have to work at some really weird possibilities to make the ICE cost less (gas drops to <$1/gallon, etc). This scenario has a median of 18,000 miles/year driven for its runs (the miles driven per year is a variable in the simulation).

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[SpaceEVDriver]

I'd love to hit that 20 year mark.

The only reason I might not is I have a huge issue with wanting the next shiny car...

 

[Kit2874]

I got this STX loaner while my Lightning was getting fixed and with it 700 miles of range for $50k this is where I think our trucks need to get eventually to capture more of the 700k+ gas F150 sales. My original post on X / Twitter hit 75k+ views, so I went deeper with this video! Why do you think is holding back the Lightning from capturing more of those huge gas sales?

Simple, people hate change.... Nothing more nothing less

 

[broncoaz]

Simple, people hate change.... Nothing more nothing less

Climate change is a very polarizing issue in a country that is basically a 50/50 split between the two sides. Suggesting it’s the only reason why people aren’t buying a specific truck doesn’t make sense when people on both sides buy trucks. The 50% that “hate” climate change may avoid EV’s over the politics, I know plenty who feel that way. The other 50% of climate change “enthusiasts” should be snapping up the EV cars and trucks at a significant rate, but they aren’t because EV’s don’t work for all people in all situations and those people also have the same fears about the user experience. Even California only has 2.5% EV adoption.

I had a conversation with a friend of mine who is a big Tesla fan, loves his Model 3, lusts after other models. We were discussing the new Highlander Hybrid his brother had bought and how his brother should’ve gotten an EV instead. I was trying to explain to him that his brother’s wife was not the type to deal with an EV, she frequently takes trips out of state to see family and with two little kids onboard isn’t willing to stop and charge or do the route planning required by the EV. Her father drives an EV and had an issue with charging on a trip to see the kids out of state (before the Tesla network was open). I explained that they had gotten one of the best hybrids around that was basically foolproof, allowing them to put gas in and drive anywhere. The first time the EV caused distress they would freak out and want to get rid of it. He just didn’t get it and was saying they were stupid for buying anything other than a Tesla Y or X. In the conversation I was making the arguments for the hybrid and against the EV for people who aren’t ready for one. We need to keep in mind that what works for us doesn’t work for everyone.

 

[Joe Dablock]

I agree that pretty much sums it up. But a day will come when the pendulum will stop and suddenly go the other way. And some day in the future, a person will say do you remember when cars used gasoline and you had to go to a convenience store to buy gas? How inconvenient!

 

[Kit2874]

Climate change is a very polarizing issue in a country that is basically a 50/50 split between the two sides. Suggesting it’s the only reason why people aren’t buying a specific truck doesn’t make sense when people on both sides buy trucks. The 50% that “hate” climate change may avoid EV’s over the politics, I know plenty who feel that way. The other 50% of climate change “enthusiasts” should be snapping up the EV cars and trucks at a significant rate, but they aren’t because EV’s don’t work for all people in all situations and those people also have the same fears about the user experience. Even California only has 2.5% EV adoption.

I had a conversation with a friend of mine who is a big Tesla fan, loves his Model 3, lusts after other models. We were discussing the new Highlander Hybrid his brother had bought and how his brother should’ve gotten an EV instead. I was trying to explain to him that his brother’s wife was not the type to deal with an EV, she frequently takes trips out of state to see family and with two little kids onboard isn’t willing to stop and charge or do the route planning required by the EV. Her father drives an EV and had an issue with charging on a trip to see the kids out of state (before the Tesla network was open). I explained that they had gotten one of the best hybrids around that was basically foolproof, allowing them to put gas in and drive anywhere. The first time the EV caused distress they would freak out and want to get rid of it. He just didn’t get it and was saying they were stupid for buying anything other than a Tesla Y or X. In the conversation I was making the arguments for the hybrid and against the EV for people who aren’t ready for one. We need to keep in mind that what works for us doesn’t work for everyone.

My comment had 100% absolute nothing to do about "climate change"

It had to do with change in general..
Holy my dude

IE

verb
1.
make (someone or something) different; alter or modify.
"both parties voted against proposals to change the law"

 

[Firn]

I wrote some software (well, spreadsheet functions) that model everything from the future cost of energy for the vehicle to the cost of maintenance to depreciation (first year and subsequent years), insurance, etc., etc., etc. I typically run 10,000 to 1 million simulations on each vehicle I'm comparing.

Here's an example from a comparison between BEV and ICE Lariats. In this scenario, 85% of the time the Lightning was cheaper than the ICE. It all depends on variables, but I have to work at some really weird possibilities to make the ICE cost less (gas drops to <$1/gallon, etc). This scenario has a median of 18,000 miles/year driven for its runs (the miles driven per year is a variable in the simulation).

So one, can I get those functions!?!

But two, the initial cost is close to zero. We're you not including the initial purchase price?

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

So one, can I get those functions!?!

Yes. I need to figure out how to share the document. Mostly I need to figure out how to make it usable to people who aren't me...
How comfortable with Monte Carlo simulations are you?

But two, the initial cost is close to zero. We're you not including the initial purchase price?

I included depreciation. If you buy the vehicle and then sell it very early, you would get most of your money back. I believe this run had a mean depreciation of around 20% in the first year for the Lightning. The possible range was probably 15% to 30%. Reselling in the same year would return 70% to 85% of the purchase price. So, for a $67,500 purchase price with a $7500 tax credit ($60,000 out the door), a depreciation of 20% would be about $12,000. And a depreciation of around 15% would mean $9,000. Reselling in the first year would mean a total cost of ownership of around $12,000. The edges of these kinds of calculations are always funky, but they're also always a small number of datapoints, so they don't change the average much.

Justification for that value of depreciation:
This is the CarGurus used car index for the '22 and '23 Lightning.

 

[ryun]

My comment had 100% absolute nothing to do about "climate change"

Yeah I was scratching my head on that one as well trying to make the connection there...

 

[ryun]

Simple, people hate change.... Nothing more nothing less

I really do think it really is this simple. People are accustomed to things and that's that. It takes time, and being exposed to alternatives to get people on board. Which is why I think things like incentives play an important role in getting people on board.

 

[broncoaz]

Yeah I was scratching my head on that one as well trying to make the connection there...

I misread the original comment on my phone screen.

 

[Kit2874]

I really do think it really is this simple. People are accustomed to things and that's that. It takes time, and being exposed to alternatives to get people on board. Which is why I think things like incentives play an important role in getting people on board.

Granted, what I'm about to say is anecdotal evidence.

But when I worked on packaging and graphic design for a well-known company consumer products. The amount of emails and actual letters that we got when we changed a color, font, ETC...

was honestly unreal and this wasn't just from for lack of a better word old grandma's with nothing better to do..

Now granted, EVs are not for everyone. But a lot of it has to deal with people hate change...

 

[ryun]

Granted, what I'm about to say is anecdotal evidence.

But when I worked on packaging and graphic design for a well-known company consumer products. The amount of emails and actual letters that we got when we changed a color, font, ETC...

was honestly unreal and this wasn't just from for lack of a better word old grandma's with nothing better to do..

Now granted, EVs are not for everyone. But a lot of it has to deal with people hate change...

Hah! Yeah, preaching to the choir here. I work in software. My empathies to you and yours.

 

[ryun]

I misread the original comment on my phone screen.

It happens.

 

[RickKeen]

Speaking of being used to things a certain way, half of the "new" things I had to learn about my Lightning had nothing to do with it being an EV. They were more about switching from my old Chevy truck to the Ford.

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