F-150 Lightning EV Tax Credits & Rebates - Discussions & Predictions

[PungoteagueDave]

I don't agree with the obsession that many have about replacing fuel stations with charging stations. It just isn't necessary and will not happen - and if it does, there will be a LOT of weeds growing around them in unused parking lots. The paradigm shift with EV's changes the entire concept of energy delivery for transportation. You no longer need any form of external fuel source for 95% of your vehicle's usage - it is just like your cell phone - you never even think about fueling - you just plug it in on your way into the house, just as you plug in your phone every evening before going to bed - it is a couple-second part of your daily routine.

The only real purpose for an EV charging network is outside of the home area - for long distance travel - which a recent study shows is less than 5% of typical vehicle usage. We all WANT it for our edge case use - those few trips we make per year are our obsession with range and towing (yes there are road warriors and long-distance commuters, but they are a separate set of edge cases).

As a semi-sorta-retiree with properties, board seats and family spread around the country, and a bad adventure motorcycling habit, I spend more time than most on long road trips, but even so, our EVs get most of their juice in our garages. I have three Tesla high power wall chargers, will be adding the Ford two-way charger that comes with the Lightning to two properties, but honestly will only need external chargers maybe five to ten days per year - we will certainly go to gas stations WAY more times than that for my wife's Porsche, my motorcycles, work trucks, boats, etc. That despite that fact that the MAJORITY of our driving will be via EV, especially after receiving the Lightning in the Spring. When you are fully inside the EV world, you see things differently and realize that charging isn't nearly the obstacle that you anticipated. With that said, I do worry about range and charging while towing the big boat.

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[shutterbug]

I don't agree with the obsession that many have about replacing fuel stations with charging stations.

Apart from reasons you give, we have way too many gas stations now. And this is after decline in the numbers for years. When it comes to charging stations, we just need more DC charging stations along the highways.

 

[MalthusUNC]

I don't agree with the obsession that many have about replacing fuel stations with charging stations. It just isn't necessary and will not happen - and if it does, there will be a LOT of weeds growing around them in unused parking lots. The paradigm shift with EV's changes the entire concept of energy delivery for transportation. You no longer need any form of external fuel source for 95% of your vehicle's usage - it is just like your cell phone - you never even think about fueling - you just plug it in on your way into the house, just as you plug in your phone every evening before going to bed - it is a couple-second part of your daily routine.

The only real purpose for an EV charging network is outside of the home area - for long distance travel - which a recent study shows is less than 5% of typical vehicle usage. We all WANT it for our edge case use - those few trips we make per year are our obsession with range and towing (yes there are road warriors and long-distance commuters, but they are a separate set of edge cases).

As a semi-sorta-retiree with properties, board seats and family spread around the country, and a bad adventure motorcycling habit, I spend more time than most on long road trips, but even so, our EVs get most of their juice in our garages. I have three Tesla high power wall chargers, will be adding the Ford two-way charger that comes with the Lightning to two properties, but honestly will only need external chargers maybe five to ten days per year - we will certainly go to gas stations WAY more times than that for my wife's Porsche, my motorcycles, work trucks, boats, etc. That despite that fact that the MAJORITY of our driving will be via EV, especially after receiving the Lightning in the Spring. When you are fully inside the EV world, you see things differently and realize that charging isn't nearly the obstacle that you anticipated. With that said, I do worry about range and charging while towing the big boat.

I agree. It depends on your lifestyle. I've had my Mach-E for seven months and I've been to a charging station twice. Been to a gas station ZERO!

I am one of the few that hopes they don't change the rules. I bought the Mach-E in April 2021 off a lot and in March 2021 I had never even given a thought to EVs (If I saw BEV or ICE, I would have had no idea what they meant). It really was the $7,500 tax credit that put it over the edge (my wife and I are self-employed and always have an interesting tax situation). We are buying the Wrangler 4xe (hybrid) this week for my wife. Same $7,500 tax credit and although it will probably only go about 25-30 miles on electricity, it is nice to have a gas option if we want to take a weekend trip and not have to worry about planning for chargers. But her shop is less than five miles away and she rarely leaves the county, so I think she will use electricity 90+% of the time. Again, wouldn't be doing this without the tax credit.

 

[greenne]

I agree. It depends on your lifestyle. I've had my Mach-E for seven months and I've been to a charging station twice. Been to a gas station ZERO!

I am one of the few that hopes they don't change the rules. I bought the Mach-E in April 2021 off a lot and in March 2021 I had never even given a thought to EVs (If I saw BEV or ICE, I would have had no idea what they meant). It really was the $7,500 tax credit that put it over the edge (my wife and I are self-employed and always have an interesting tax situation). We are buying the Wrangler 4xe (hybrid) this week for my wife. Same $7,500 tax credit and although it will probably only go about 25-30 miles on electricity, it is nice to have a gas option if we want to take a weekend trip and not have to worry about planning for chargers. But her shop is less than five miles away and she rarely leaves the county, so I think she will use electricity 90+% of the time. Again, wouldn't be doing this without the tax credit.

What say you Dave....since you have opined that no a single EV would be sold due to the tax credit?

We got two right here......

 

[shutterbug]

What say you Dave....since you have opined that no a single EV would be sold due to the tax credit?

We got two right here......

For every MME buyer who wouldn't buy without government incentive, there are a bunch that would buy without it. And pay ADM on top of it. The simple fact is that MME is selling very well in states without any state incentives. When some state incentives expired or ran out of money, the MMEs destined there still sold very well. If the automakers build desirable cars, they will sell.

 

[techguydave]

The simple fact is that MME is selling very well in states without any state incentives.

Ohio here: That's absolutely correct. We have absolutely zero state rebates available and the main power conglomerate in northeast Ohio (First Energy/Ohio Edison) doesn't even offer any charger or EV rebates, either. Yet many Ford dealers had to pay people to hold on to their delivered custom orders for a few months as test drive vehicles because it's selling faster than they can get them on the lots.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

What say you Dave....since you have opined that no a single EV would be sold due to the tax credit?

We got two right here......

I did not say that exactly - I say not one added EV would be sold without the tax credits and I stand by that - every EV is spoken for and if MalthusUNC hadn't purchased his Mach-E and his wife's plug-in/ICE Jeep, someone else would have, with several behind them. My point is that every decent EV being produced is being sold several times over, there are waiting lines, and the incentives are doing nothing except lining peoples' pockets - and the expiration modality of the credits is such that they will do nothing, nada, zero beyond that initial demand to increase absorption to replace ICE usage. It is NOT like this is a cash-for-clunkers program that will get rid of carbon-producing vehicles any faster - there is a zero-sum game for how many EV's we will see in the next ten years and they are already spoken for. The market WANTS them folks. We WON. Yes, maybe some people are buying who might not otherwise due to their personal affordability characteristics, but those cars would still be sold, and the supply constraints remain. Save us the stories about failed models like the Bolt et al.

 

[metroshot]

For every MME buyer who wouldn't buy without government incentive, there are a bunch that would buy without it. And pay ADM on top of it. The simple fact is that MME is selling very well in states without any state incentives. When some state incentives expired or ran out of money, the MMEs destined there still sold very well. If the automakers build desirable cars, they will sell.

^^^
Agreed - this is true.
There are many people who would not be bothered by zero fed and zero state incentives/credits.
Many would just buy at or above MSRP.

I would however prefer to get the Lightning with a $7500 tax credit + $4000 state incentives to effectively get my Pro trim down to under $30K effectively...

 

[shutterbug]

I would however prefer to get the Lightning with a $7500 tax credit + $4000 state incentives to effectively get my Pro trim down to under $30K effectively...

Everybody likes free money. I intend to take advantage of every incentive available to me. I simply refuse to run around hair on fire, if the current incentives expire and new ones aren't created to replace them. There are probably better ways for the government to encourage EV production, but I would prefer if they did nothing. Everything the government touches gets distorted and turns to crap.

 

[sotek2345]

I did not say that exactly - I say not one added EV would be sold without the tax credits and I stand by that - every EV is spoken for and if MalthusUNC hadn't purchased his Mach-E and his wife's plug-in/ICE Jeep, someone else would have, with several behind them. My point is that every decent EV being produced is being sold several times over, there are waiting lines, and the incentives are doing nothing except lining peoples' pockets - and the expiration modality of the credits is such that they will do nothing, nada, zero beyond that initial demand to increase absorption to replace ICE usage. It is NOT like this is a cash-for-clunkers program that will get rid of carbon-producing vehicles any faster - there is a zero-sum game for how many EV's we will see in the next ten years and they are already spoken for. The market WANTS them folks. We WON. Yes, maybe some people are buying who might not otherwise due to their personal affordability characteristics, but those cars would still be sold, and the supply constraints remain. Save us the stories about failed models like the Bolt et al.

I agree with everything you said, except your 10 year time horizon. Capacity can be built up faster than current plans (heck we see new announcements of this every week or so). The Tax credits let the manufacturers keep the prices high (they get most of the benefits as others have noted) without slowing demand. This not only gives them money to invest in increase capacity, but also shows that there is a profit to be made in the EV space, encouraging that investment. That is what we get with the credit - long term capacity increase so that 3-5 years from now more EVs are made than would be without them.

 

[MalthusUNC]

To be clear, I agree with @PungoteagueDave that these would have sold without the tax incentives to someone else. My point was more that I would not even have considered an EV (barely knew what one was) until I started researching them. And I wouldn't have researched them if the tax credit didn't make them more affordable compared to the ICE options I was looking at.

Two things happened; First, it got me out of my Toyota Tundra that was getting 15 miles to the gallon (although obviously, someone else is now driving it - just hopefully not as many miles as I was) and into an EV, and second, it converted my whole family (the Hybrid Jeep, we have a Lightning on reserve, etc.) into EV proponents. Anytime I get stopped and asked about my Mach-E (which is all the time), I sing the praises of electric vehicles and try to educate people on how often they actually drive 300 miles at a time. All good!! Love the discussion.

 

[jefro]

I bought two EV's without a tax credit.

I would have taken a tax credit if I could.

 

[RavenYZF-R6]

Question. I just bought a Kia Niro as I won’t get my F150 until 2023 probably. Say this new bill passes next month, what credit will I fall under? Does it depend on when I bought or when I file taxes?

 

[rdr854]

Question. I just bought a Kia Niro as I won’t get my F150 until 2023 probably. Say this new bill passes next month, what credit will I fall under? Does it depend on when I bought or when I file taxes?

My understanding is that it is dependent upon the purchase date of the vehicle, not when the tax return is filed.

 

[jefro]

One of the mentioned proposals was a credit going back to March 2021. So, yes, it is purchase date, the date you took title.
The entire deal seems to be up in the air still. Doubt the Union and even US made will survive. Pretty sure too many car makers will sue if it did pass that way.
Could they support a $10K refundable credit? Maybe. Would be possible to push a $7,500 for every car below a price point I'd think.

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