Wave 3 Feb 3rd ~ XLT SR

[TaxmanHog]

Welp, now I really need to start thinking about what I want to do. I went down to my dealer and it looks like (based on their internal system) that I'm next in line at the dealership. They've had 7 orders in the first two waves, so I would think they would get some in wave 3 as well.

I'm waffling between the XLT SR and the Lariat ER. Tough call. Obviously it won't be a tough call if the XLT SR is sold out, though.

Good luck, I'm gunning for the Lariat ER + tow prep.

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[LightningShow]

Good luck, I'm gunning for the Lariat ER + tow prep.

Thanks, I'm leaning towards the Lariat ER as well. I built an ICE Lariat with the same features as the Lightning Lariat and it came to $70k. That's pretty much the same as the Lariat ER after the tax credit. I've never paid over $25k for a daily driver so $80k is quite a sticker shock.

 

[ExCivilian]

I built an ICE Lariat with the same features as the Lightning Lariat and it came to $70k.

Keep in mind that before last year not even suckers paid MSRP for an F150.

If you believe the points you, and others that agreed with you, made earlier supporting your prediction an XLT/Lariat ER would hold value over the next few years, it only makes sense to buy an XLT SR.

That is, if:
a) chargers become ubiquitous within a few years
b) economically viable after-market battery packs become available within the next few years and can easily be retrofitted into the Lightning
and c) you might resell it in a few years

then
you should buy the least expensive model with the least amount of range that can accommodate your needs to hold you over for the next few years until you resell it at a minimal loss.

 

[LightningShow]

Keep in mind that before last year not even suckers paid MSRP for an F150.

If you believe the points you, and others that agreed with you, made earlier supporting your prediction an XLT/Lariat ER would hold value over the next few years, it only makes sense to buy an XLT SR.

That is, if:
a) chargers become ubiquitous within a few years
b) economically viable after-market battery packs become available within the next few years and can easily be retrofitted into the Lightning
and c) you might resell it in a few years

then
you should buy the least expensive model with the least amount of range that can accommodate your needs to hold you over for the next few years until you resell it at a minimal loss.

I think the major factor in holding value will be the range. Unfortunately 230 is not even a good range number in 2022 let alone in a few years. 300 will be competitive for a while. Depending on how things progress I would definitely consider getting getting out of it in 3 years if it looked like the battery tech was jumping forward more quickly than I expect.

To be honest, I'm not that worried about losing a few thousand more dollars. If I was I wouldn't be buying this vehicle in the first place.

 

[SmoothJ]

I think the major factor in holding value will be the range. Unfortunately 230 is not even a good range number in 2022 let alone in a few years. 300 will be competitive for a while. Depending on how things progress I would definitely consider getting getting out of it in 3 years if it looked like the battery tech was jumping forward more quickly than I expect.

To be honest, I'm not that worried about losing a few thousand more dollars. If I was I wouldn't be buying this vehicle in the first place.

Remember that range is targeted with 1000lbs payload. I saw a few videos on YT already and without any payload it was 400+. They tarnished their reputation before with that MPG issue they had several years back, so they are being really conservative now.

 

[LightningShow]

I'll just be happy with a real 300. With a 131kWh battery I don't think it's realistic to expect much more than that. It would need to get 2.3mi/kWh efficiency just to hit 300. That would make it more efficient than the R1T, which is a smaller vehicle.

 

[sotek2345]

Remember that range is targeted with 1000lbs payload. I saw a few videos on YT already and without any payload it was 400+. They tarnished their reputation before with that MPG issue they had several years back, so they are being really conservative now.

400+ is a pipe dream of a few YouTubers looking at unfinished software in non real world conditions. The thousand pound payload may be true, but will have a very minor impact on range (5 to 10 miles, give or take).

 

[SmoothJ]

400+ is a pipe dream of a few YouTubers looking at unfinished software in non real world conditions. The thousand pound payload may be true, but will have a very minor impact on range (5 to 10 miles, give or take).

Software will always get updated and will always have bugs. Calculating range is pretty difficult as it has a number of variable to deal with, including payload. Is it perfect, no. However this isn’t FMC first electric car so they at least have a good idea on how to calculate range.

Also, to say that it will only affect 5-10 miles is a bit far fetched IMHO. Even in a ICE vehicle, that would affect your gas mileage.

 

[ExCivilian]

Unfortunately 230 is not even a good range number in 2022 let alone in a few years. 300 will be competitive for a while.

Just keep in mind the usable range is (20-80% charging range)-20% for degradation over approximately 10 years.

That leaves a usable range of 138 for SR and 180 for ER long-term (worst case scenario; I doubt customers will "see" 20% degradation).

Towing *or* cold weather potentially drop that to 70/90. Towing *and* cold weather potentially drop that to an urban range (40-60 miles).

These calculations are based on best practices for charging and worst case scenarios for range/degradation.

I thought the difference between an XLT SR and Lariat ER is more like $20-25K. That's a whole 'nother car!

Also, to say that it will only affect 5-10 miles is a bit far fetched IMHO. Even in a ICE vehicle, that would affect your gas mileage.

1,000 pounds is roughly a family of four with luggage/groceries. How much do you think that drops your mileage? It's not even noticeable in my experience. Also, 1,000lbs is barely 1/7th of the total weight of the vehicle so it doesn't impact it as much as a 3,500lb vehicle where it's nearly 1/3 the total vehicle weight.

The early range estimates were not a result of buggy software and Ford not knowing how to property estimate range. The issue is that no one even knows if those non-production vehicles had the same size/type pack in them and they were putting around showing off. If you take an EV and drive it around town at 20mph for a day it's going to give you a wild estimate of 800 miles that will evaporate as soon as you start driving it normally again.

It happens in ICE vehicles, too. In my Touareg if I'm driving down a mountain and take my foot off the accelerator it'll tell me I have "infinity" range once the injectors stop pumping fuel but the gauges come back to reality once everything comes back online.

 

[biers]

4 years and 60k miles in my little eGolf with 125 EPA. I'll take SR all day long in any climate.

 

[AB852]

I'll just be happy with a real 300. With a 131kWh battery I don't think it's realistic to expect much more than that. It would need to get 2.3mi/kWh efficiency just to hit 300. That would make it more efficient than the R1T, which is a smaller vehicle.

Keep in mind - The R1T is powering four motors, F150 is powering two. I agree the range seems optimistic with only 131kWh, but it should be pretty close.

 

[LightningShow]

Just keep in mind the usable range is (20-80% charging range)-20% for degradation over approximately 10 years.

That leaves a usable range of 138 for SR and 180 for ER long-term (worst case scenario; I doubt customers will "see" 20% degradation).

Towing *or* cold weather potentially drop that to 70/90. Towing *and* cold weather potentially drop that to an urban range (40-60 miles).

These calculations are based on best practices for charging and worst case scenarios for range/degradation.

The usable range is 0-100%.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

Anyone know if passenger weight is considered "payload"? Four adults is already about 800lbs.

 

[LightningShow]

Keep in mind - The R1T is powering four motors, F150 is powering two. I agree the range seems optimistic with only 131kWh, but it should be pretty close.

Yes, the R1T is supposedly a few hundred pounds heavier as well. 300 seems doable for the F150 but i’d be surprised if it was much more. I would say even 320 is out of the question.

 

[LightningShow]

Anyone know if passenger weight is considered "payload"? Four adults is already about 800lbs.

anything in the vehicle counts towards payload, including passengers.

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