Just How In Demand ARE EV Trucks

[Marshall]

Go ahead and guess. Extend out for a few years just based on your gut. I'm curious.

I kind of already did:

Tesla could be selling 1/2 as many cars as Ford annually by 2025 and be one of the top 3 US automakers (in number of units sold globally) by 2030.

But again, I don't even think that was a particularly bold prediction.

I'm not objecting to optimistic views of Tesla's future, but I have to wonder if you are serious about taking Covid Era reductions in production for manufacturers like Ford and GM and extending that out to continuous reduction year after year.

Both Ford and GM have been losing sales every single year since 2016, long before Covid. And the same supply chain constraints existed for Tesla that existed for Ford and GM, but they were better able to overcome them and continue to see 30% growth while Ford and GM continued to bleed sales.

Ford isn't showing signs of denial. Quite the opposite. They appear to be all in on EV

I would agree that Ford is finally, within the last 2 1/2 years, beginning to take EVs seriously, but “all-in“ is an enormous stretch. Ford underestimated demand for the Mach E and greatly underestimated the demand for the F150L. And the other EV firmly on their roadmap is the E-Transit van which will be a monster hit as a fleet delivery vehicle if they can get it to market quick enough. In fact, I suspect that Amazon would happily buy as many as Ford can produce.

The other two of the big 3, I have far less faith in. I will begin with GM:

• GM has spent decades lobbying against emissions controls
• GM managed to bankrupt itself even before Covid and EV adoption
• GM nearly pinned it's EV future on Nikola
• GM made 26 EVs last quarter
• When Tesla gave us the Model 3, GM's answer was the Bolt (let that one sink in for a minute)
• GM just lost it's lead as the largest domestic auto seller to Toyota
• It's going to take GM another 2 years just to deliver an uglier electrified Avalanche.
• Outside of the C8 corvette, what was the last GM product that anybody cared about?

Now on to Stellantis:

• Carlos Tavares, Stellantis CEO, basically said that Stellantis can't make EVs profitably, and yet Tesla I believe in Q4 recorded the highest margins of any automaker.
• What else needs to be said about Stellantis / PSA / Fiat Chrysler? They suck.

So Again, Sortof Boldish Prediction:
Not only will Tesla not be a niche product in 10 years, they will outsell at least one of the current big 3, likely GM or Stellantis, by 2030.

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[Electron]

Demand for EV trucks - here is another data point. I am waiting on one ?. Whomever is the first to have a truck with a range of 400 miles and good charging infrastructure support, will get my money.
My use case - frequent long drives to my cabin in winter frozen Quebec, from the slightly warmer Toronto. Tesla has the infrastructure bit resolved brilliantly. The Cybertruck is some years away, until then I am in the long queue (6 months now) for a 2.7 Lariat.
A Lightning with that bed toolbox extended range, or a bigger battery plus access to Tesla’s superchargers or some third party charging infrastructure would do as well.

 

[Sklith]

I visited Ontario for the first time ever last week, and I was surprised to see how many pickup trucks there are there. I felt like I was in the south but everyone was polite.

 

[Erik]

I think you guys are underestimating the level of brand loyalty/recognition Tesla has built up, especially with younger people. Even kids. Whenever I talk about new cars with my kids (10 and 13) they want to know if I'm going to get a Tesla next. It's pretty much the only car brand they know except like Lambo and Porsche (probably because I have a Porsche).

As a kid, I only knew about Ferraris and Porsches, but my dad never bought one. Neither did I. Most people can’t afford $50k+ hatchbacks and Tesla just announced that they won’t work on a $25k car anytime soon. Tesla competes with luxury’s sedans and sports cars, but the mass market is affordable SUVs and trucks.

I think Ford will sell many Mavericks. It is cheap, fuel efficient, and practical. Not the car kids dream about, but the car people can afford. If Ford can make a $30k Maverick EV, they can become the leader in the EV market.

 

[Electron]

I visited Ontario for the first time ever last week, and I was surprised to see how many pickup trucks there are there. I felt like I was in the south but everyone was polite.

Pickup trucks are by far the most popular vehicle in Canada. Quebec is the exception (but I don’t have any hard data). I actually use mine to tow and haul stuff. Toronto is a very good place to live, but there is no place anywhere without its share of problems.

 

[LightningShow]

As a kid, I only knew about Ferraris and Porsches, but my dad never bought one. Neither did I. Most people can’t afford $50k+ hatchbacks and Tesla just announced that they won’t work on a $25k car anytime soon. Tesla competes with luxury’s sedans and sports cars, but the mass market is affordable SUVs and trucks.

I think Ford will sell many Mavericks. It is cheap, fuel efficient, and practical. Not the car kids dream about, but the car people can afford. If Ford can make a $30k Maverick EV, they can become the leader in the EV market.

The Model 3 is just about the cheapest EV you can buy. No manufacturer is releasing a $25k EV in the near future. I can guarantee that when the market is ready for that Tesla will have a competitive offering.

Also, the average new car sale price last year was $46k. The days of $25k new cars are nearly over.

 

[Blainestang]

As a kid, I only knew about Ferraris and Porsches, but my dad never bought one. Neither did I. Most people can’t afford $50k+ hatchbacks and Tesla just announced that they won’t work on a $25k car anytime soon. Tesla competes with luxury’s sedans and sports cars, but the mass market is affordable SUVs and trucks.

I think Ford will sell many Mavericks. It is cheap, fuel efficient, and practical. Not the car kids dream about, but the car people can afford. If Ford can make a $30k Maverick EV, they can become the leader in the EV market.

Ferraris and Porsches are much higher above the average car sales price than Teslas are... at least the Porsches that people aspire to own when they're kids (aka, not Macans and Cayennes even though they're great cars)... so that's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

As far as a $30k Maverick EV, that's a substantial "if" in the short term considering that Ford is very supply constrained. They could sell a zillion $40k Lightnings, too, but they aren't and they won't anytime soon because they're focusing on high-margin trucks. Long term, sure, they could build a $30k Maverick EV, but long term, Tesla could still make the $25k (maybe $30k by then) car and spin off a trucklette, too, like they spun the Model Y off of the Model 3 relatively quickly.

To be clear, I'm a Ford "bull", too. I think they're going to do very well. But there's zero chance Ford substantially surpasses Tesla in EV sales in the short term, and even long term, pretty much anything Ford can do, Tesla could do, too... especially since they've got more money than they know what to do with, now.

 

[sotek2345]

The Model 3 is just about the cheapest EV you can buy. No manufacturer is releasing a $25k EV in the near future. I can guarantee that when the market is ready for that Tesla will have a competitive offering.

Also, the average new car sale price last year was $46k. The days of $25k new cars are nearly over.

The Bolt and the Leaf get close to that $25k mark. The Mini EV isn't far off either.

 

[LightningShow]

The Bolt and the Leaf get close to that $25k mark. The Mini EV isn't far off either.

The base price on the Bolt is $31,500. The Leaf is $27,500 but that's for the 150 mi range version. The 225mi starts at $32,500. The Mini EV only ha 110 miles of range. I wouldn't consider anything under 200-225 miles to be a broadly appealing EV, the longer range Leaf and Bolt are in the same ballpark as the Model 3 in terms of range. The lower range vehicles certainly have a niche but I was talking about a mass market EV at $25k. I don't think we'll ever see it. Upper $20s, at best.

I didn't realize the Model 3 base price was up to $45k now. I bet Tesla will release a further down range model in a few years once other manufacturers start to do so as well. As of now pretty much everyone is focusing on mid and up-market models. Cars like the Bolt and Leaf and Mini probably will be discontinued and replaced with higher priced cars.

 

[Erik]

The Model 3 is just about the cheapest EV you can buy. No manufacturer is releasing a $25k EV in the near future. I can guarantee that when the market is ready for that Tesla will have a competitive offering.

Also, the average new car sale price last year was $46k. The days of $25k new cars are nearly over.

In Europe, the The Dacia Spring is less than €20k and the Tesla model 3 is €45k. Cheap EVs are pretty new to the European market, so Tesla still has a lead. With about 10 models under €30k available now, small cheap EVs are gaining market share. There will always be demand for luxury cars like Teslas, but most people will buy cheap cars.

 

[Blainestang]

In Europe, the The Dacia Spring is less than €20k and the Tesla model 3 is €45k. Cheap EVs are pretty new to the European market, so Tesla still has a lead. With about 10 models under €30k available now, small cheap EVs are gaining market share. There will always be demand for luxury cars like Teslas, but most people will buy cheap cars.

The US may not get the really cheap ones, though. Virtually everything that's even sold in the US is a luxury car compared to some of the cars sold in other markets.

Kandi tried to sell some EVs here in the US and I haven't heard anything about it in a while, so I'm pretty sure it was a total flop, because those things were straight garbage. Ridiculously underpowered, golf-cart level interiors, etc... and they weren't anywhere near cheap enough to justify how compromised they were. They were cheap, but not enough cheaper than the street price of a Bolt or Leaf or lightly used Bolt/Leaf to justify buying one.

 

[astricklin]

The base price on the Bolt is $31,500. The Leaf is $27,500 but that's for the 150 mi range version. The 225mi starts at $32,500. The Mini EV only ha 110 miles of range. I wouldn't consider anything under 200-225 miles to be a broadly appealing EV, the longer range Leaf and Bolt are in the same ballpark as the Model 3 in terms of range. The lower range vehicles certainly have a niche but I was talking about a mass market EV at $25k. I don't think we'll ever see it. Upper $20s, at best.

I didn't realize the Model 3 base price was up to $45k now. I bet Tesla will release a further down range model in a few years once other manufacturers start to do so as well. As of now pretty much everyone is focusing on mid and up-market models. Cars like the Bolt and Leaf and Mini probably will be discontinued and replaced with higher priced cars.

Car Shopper: I need 250+ miles of range
Car Salesman: for an extra $10k you can have an additional 100 miles of range
Car Shopper: I'll take it
Car Shopper: drives less than 50 miles per day

Seriously, people need to realize that 120-150 miles of range is more than adequate.

 

[LightningShow]

Car Shopper: I need 250+ miles of range
Car Salesman: for an extra $10k you can have an additional 100 miles of range
Car Shopper: I'll take it
Car Shopper: drives less than 50 miles per day

Seriously, people need to realize that 120-150 miles of range is more than adequate.

I understand what you're trying to say but I simply don't believe that mental hurdle will ever be crossed by 95% of the population. It's not logical but people aren't logical.

 

[greenne]

The Model 3 is just about the cheapest EV you can buy. No manufacturer is releasing a $25k EV in the near future. I can guarantee that when the market is ready for that Tesla will have a competitive offering.

Also, the average new car sale price last year was $46k. The days of $25k new cars are nearly over.

Not really...

The Model 3 now starts at $44,990.

The ID4 starts at $40,760 (not including tax break)

The Mach E starts at $43,896 (not including tax break)

Ioniq5: $39,700 (not including tax break)
EV6: $40,900 (not including tax break)

Fisker: est. $37,500 (not including tax break)

In reality these are SUVs that are closer to the Model Y which is even more expensive. Also to note the Model 3 adds $$ if you want any color other than black/silver.

Sedans are a tough sell and the marketplace for $35-50k is getting full of lots of Model 3 alternatives.

 

[greenne]

The base price on the Bolt is $31,500. The Leaf is $27,500 but that's for the 150 mi range version. The 225mi starts at $32,500. The Mini EV only ha 110 miles of range. I wouldn't consider anything under 200-225 miles to be a broadly appealing EV, the longer range Leaf and Bolt are in the same ballpark as the Model 3 in terms of range. The lower range vehicles certainly have a niche but I was talking about a mass market EV at $25k. I don't think we'll ever see it. Upper $20s, at best.

I didn't realize the Model 3 base price was up to $45k now. I bet Tesla will release a further down range model in a few years once other manufacturers start to do so as well. As of now pretty much everyone is focusing on mid and up-market models. Cars like the Bolt and Leaf and Mini probably will be discontinued and replaced with higher priced cars.

Gm is said to be launching an Equinox ev(around $30k starting) and Blazer EV(price unknown) in 2023-2024

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