Lightning Waves #1-4 have a 47% order conversion rate.

[williams]

here i am a wave 2 order without a build date

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[FordLightningMan]

I have a CT reservation and a Silverado EV reservation. If the reservation amount was higher, then I would have been more selective about which one I wanted. If you are actually going to purchase a truck with a 50k to 100k price, then 100 dollars is round-off error. My personal conversion rate is likely going to be 33 percent. Not having enough of the pro or xlt sr trucks available for order certainly hurt the conversion rate. Pricing the xlt er so close to the lariat hurt those sales. 100 dollars was easy money to put down for a 40k truck, but pulling the trigger on an 80k vehicle is a bridge too far for many.

This is my point exactly. I have/had Rivian, Lightning, CT, Fisker, and Silverado reservations. I anticipate I buy two of the five. The cost to reserve is so low, why not do it? If the truck ends up being amazing you are at the front of the line, if you don't want it, no big deal. Many people are doing the same thing, conversion rates will be low for all these vehicles, amount sold is all that matters.

 

[greenne]

This is my point exactly. I have/had Rivian, Lightning, CT, Fisker, and Silverado reservations. I anticipate I buy two of the five. The cost to reserve is so low, why not do it? If the truck ends up being amazing you are at the front of the line, if you don't want it, no big deal. Many people are doing the same thing, conversion rates will be low for all these vehicles, amount sold is all that matters.

Unfortunately I think that is what car buying has become for the forseeable future...reserve anything you might be interested in and cancel later. A lot of people are boxed out 2-3yrs in advance for popular models.

I have a Fisker and Lightning reservation. I plan to reserve a Blazer and/or Equinox EV, ID Buzz, audi etron, Explorer EV..for starters. While waiting(1-2yrs) I can research and possibly see a model at the auto show.

 

[greenne]

With such a low conversion rate, I assume they shut the orders down early for a reason. Commodity constraints OR price increase are possibilities.

Or maybe Ford is looking at an early switchover to MY2023 under the new management of Model E structure. I don't think Ford is too happy with the dealer markup nonsense.

 

[maverick92]

It's also possible that they're trying to limit the number of deferrals for MY2022 Pro SR. They would be crazy if they continued to offer the Pro SR to retail channels while they still can't fill demand with higher trims. I'm guessing that they will limit it to fleets for MY2023 except for those with MY2022 deferrals.

Ford has no business selling/advertising the PRO at $40k. That was a pure PR move and could end up tarnishing the brand depending on future commodity prices/inflation and Ford's production plans going forward. I HIGHLY doubt Ford is making money on retail PROs, which is why first year production is so low and only fleet buyers could even buy the PRO ER. The jump in price to an XLT is a joke for what you get and is a very good reflection of Ford's true cost to build a basic Lightning. The XLT price would have been a lot easier to swallow if the PRO started at ~$47k.

 

[FordLightningMan]

Unfortunately I think that is what car buying has become for the forseeable future...reserve anything you might be interested in and cancel later. A lot of people are boxed out 2-3yrs in advance for popular models.

I have a Fisker and Lightning reservation. I plan to reserve a Blazer and/or Equinox EV, ID Buzz, audi etron, Explorer EV..for starters. While waiting(1-2yrs) I can research and possibly see a model at the auto show.

I'm watching every day to see when the EV Macan reservations start too. The most ironic part of all these reservations I've made and/or will make is they are for the vehicle that will replace my Lightning... that I won't even have for 6+ more months! My thought is the XLT SR will be a great entry level EV truck, but the competition will heat up enough that the 2024 offerings will make me want to upgrade.

You need to plan years in advance to buy a vehicle, it's absurd. That dealer model with a lot full of inventory sounds pretty good sometimes.

 

[Red944]

I'm also a skilled mental gymnast who ordered a Lariat ER.

Y'all are making me feel better. I made that call this morning as well and switched out my XLT to a Lariat ER. They told me to skip the bedliner as that could cause a delay. FWIW.

 

[gorwell]

For some context (for all those who aren't watching the video):

He is reading from some stats from headquarters. Not sure how accurate given the stat sheet also said this:

F150 Lighting is 50% of f150 sales
25% of F150 Hybrid sales
And 25% of total Ford sales....

He expresses severe doubt in those numbers, with only 3 allocations



F150 L Extra Info:

91% of orders converted online

75% of orders are for Extended Range. Roughly inline w/ Forum stats.

Most popular is Lariat 511A

Also seemed to suggest that if you extend your order for a dealer, that seems to guarantee them that allocation next MY.

Said that Once you get a build date, it should be about 4 weeks to arrive (assuming it got built that week). Will get Okay to Buy before any of them go out.

At time of recording he said wave 1 and 2 orders where scheduled for builds. But not wave 3 (because he was wave 3 )... Not sure how accurate that is. I don't think Ford is doing build dates strictly by Waves.




Other items stats:

Maverick expected numbers for March (OR April?): 5,400 -- 50/50 between hybrid/eco (vs 60/40 previously) was a decline is previous estimate of total production.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

I thought this was interesting. Only 47% of those that received order invites from waves 1-4 placed an order for a MY22. It could mean that there will be a significant cleanup wave after the 3/31 deadline, but Ford could also just stop without a cleanup due to supply constraints.

I think it's important for some perspective.

Ford *only* 47% of those that received invites converted.

Tesla for comparison converted only 20-30% of Model X orders back in 2016.
They then converted 30-40% of Model 3 orders back in 2018.

Th Cybertruck is only projecting a 30% conversion rate from Analysts.

That said...47% is pretty darn good and shouldn't be considered an *only*

 

[vandy1981]

I think it's important for some perspective.

Ford *only* 47% of those that received invites converted.

Tesla for comparison converted only 20-30% of Model X orders back in 2016.
They then converted 30-40% of Model 3 orders back in 2018.

Th Cybertruck is only projecting a 30% conversion rate from Analysts.

That said...47% is pretty darn good and shouldn't be considered an *only*

That's a very good point. I wonder how those compares to the Maverick, Mach-E and Bronco.

 

[p52Ranch]

I thought this was interesting. Only 47% of those that received order invites from waves 1-4 placed an order for a MY22. It could mean that there will be a significant cleanup wave after the 3/31 deadline, but Ford could also just stop without a cleanup due to supply constraints.

What time in the presentation did he cover the Lightning statistics? I listened to the whole thing and missed it.
thanks for sharing it.

Edit: I found it after re-listening. 47:20 mark.

 

[LightningShow]

For some context (for all those who aren't watching the video):

He is reading from some stats from headquarters. Not sure how accurate given the stat sheet also said this:

F150 Lighting is 50% of f150 sales
25% of F150 Hybrid sales
And 25% of total Ford sales....

He expresses severe doubt in those numbers, with only 3 allocations

Yeahhhhhh...those numbers make no sense.

 

[greenne]

Or maybe Ford is looking at an early switchover to MY2023 under the new management of Model E structure. I don't think Ford is too happy with the dealer markup nonsense.

Its crazy but this is where we are. I also have a Silverado reservation.. timestamp is 1/5/22 1:01pm(reservations officially opened at 1pm). I was sitting there refreshing the page every 5sec waiting for it to open. I could not stomach $100k+ for a truck, so I reserved a regular RST, not the first edition.

Even so, its crazy the timing may be pretty close to when I can get a Lightning-- I'm was late to the party with Ford, reserved June 2021. The silverado with a larger battery, longer range and faster charge makes a compelling argument for waiting longer if the delay is only say 6months.

 

[Ruination]

Not going to lie, the Silverado sounds too good to be true, so I will believe it when I see it.

Specially with the price of the hummer EV.

 

[JimL]

I was tempted until B&P told me an XLT with extended range would be $75k. Eff that.

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