Chances at 2022 delivery?

[MoonWhaler]

I was fortunate enough to get in the last wave for MY2023, quickly put in my order, and have a build date for the Week of 11/21/2022 (far sooner than expected!). If I do make it in 2022, it will be tight. Do you all think there is any chance of getting delivery before the end of the year? I did add the spray-in liner (not sure if that adds a delay).

I'm hoping it will make it so I can claim the old tax credit before it's changed, at which point the truck will not be eligible. It would be nice to offset part of the cost increase by Ford.

Thanks!

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[shadycoh]

37% probability unless it encounters shipping delays

 

[jimfigler]

25%

 

[Jer]

No idea what percentage. Ford will want to get as many to the dealerships and off their books by years end, so there is that. However, trains and transport trucks are mostly out of their control.

 

[Pioneer74]

My dealer is less than 50 miles from the assembly plant and took over a month after it was released for shipping for it to arrive. Couple that with Thanksgiving and Christmas, I wouldn't be too optimistic.

 

[metroshot]

Best case scenario: 6 weeks from production to delivery without any delays (chips, parts, modules, transport, rail embargo, trucking delivery to dealer).... for full tax credit before 12/31/22....

Worst case: 2023 delivery.

 

[MoonWhaler]

My dealer is less than 50 miles from the assembly plant and took over a month after it was released for shipping for it to arrive. Couple that with Thanksgiving and Christmas, I wouldn't be too optimistic.

That is a great point

 

[MoonWhaler]

No idea what percentage. Ford will want to get as many to the dealerships and off their books by years end, so there is that. However, trains and transport trucks are mostly out of their control.

 

[Halbach]

Damn! beat me to it!

 

[TaxmanHog]

I was fortunate enough to get in the last wave for MY2023, quickly put in my order, and have a build date for the Week of 11/21/2022 (far sooner than expected!).

NC bound trucks sorted by ship date

 

[MoonWhaler]

NC bound trucks sorted by ship date

This looks great! I'll see if I can find the file you used in the forums to populate my info/contribute.

 

[TaxmanHog]

This looks great! I'll see if I can find the file you used in the forums to populate my info/contribute.

I am only doing custom analysis of MY2022, but your welcome to post your build information on the forums official tracker, it is not as detailed as mine, but should still give you a sense of when trucks in your region are going into production and then delivered.

The best method to track crowd dynamics, is to participate in a BULD WEEK THREAD, once you are assigned a week.

https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/threads/📊-f-150-lightning-orders-tracking-list-stats-add-yours.7929/

 

[ChrisCon]

17.4287 % Chance

 

[TheBigBezo]

Based off people taking delivery in the 9/19 threads, I'm optimistic that potentially an 11/21 maybe even 11/28 could make it by the absolute last day. Fortunately I'm picking mine up in Alabama so it's not quite as far of a movement.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

Based off people taking delivery in the 9/19 threads, I'm optimistic that potentially an 11/21 maybe even 11/28 could make it by the absolute last day. Fortunately I'm picking mine up in Alabama so it's not quite as far of a movement.

Don't forget delays all along the chain for the holidays.

An 11/21, maybe a few get their trucks before the end of the year.

11/28, doubtful.

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