Is the "used" market normal for F150 depreciation at this point? Or is it worse?

[pc500]

I tow and haul a fair bit so the scales and chmsl camera delete would be tough for me. I got my 22 ER when it appeared that 23s both XLT and Lariat wouldn't qualify for rebates; the features mine has that I didn't even know at that time would be deleted are kind of priceless to me... I love my truck and foresee long ownership, but Ford either fucked up with pricing 23s over the rebate limit OR and this is a very big OR... They want to reduce demand for batteries and trucks they simply can't build enough of or are building at a loss.

Yeah, I failed to recognize 22's were available, but I probably should have hunted down a 22 SR and done the deal in December.

My 23 has the camera (not sure what it does), but the scales are deleted. Never really overloaded a pickup or worried about it much -- mostly in the "neat" category for me.

Ford did screw up the prices. I don't know the fix, but they should have at least made an XLT ER get under 80k. It didn't, so I just ordered the lariat as it was only 4k more.

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[Ffxdude]

What is making you trade from the R1T to the Lightning? Just curious.

@Yellow Buddy wants back in after he sold his pro and we banished him from the 7/11 week production club...

In all seriousness though, you raise some good questions here. In addition to what was discussed previously in this thread, I think a lot is riding on the truck itself. If the truck proves unreliable or has major long term issues (battery degradation, fires, etc) the value drops like a rock. If nothing major happens I can't see how it would drop faster than any other f150.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

@Yellow Buddy wants back in after he sold his pro and we banished him from the 7/11 week production club...

In all seriousness though, you raise some good questions here. In addition to what was discussed previously in this thread, I think a lot is riding on the truck itself. If the truck proves unreliable or has major long term issues (battery degradation, fires, etc) the value drops like a rock. If nothing major happens I can't see how it would drop faster than any other f150.

The only reason I sold the Pro was because I thought I had a deal with @Rob G to trade the R1T for his Lariat ER before he ghosted me. Otherwise I would've kept both, now I'm on the outside looking in.

In all seriousness, both trucks are awesome and I could write pages on which one is better or worse at which. The biggest factor is probably what you're (or I) am used to driving. Coming from a crossover? Rivian feels more at home. Coming from a full sized truck? You'll miss the interior space.

At the end of the day, if you do truck things - Ford's been crafting a vehicle that does just that for over 100 years. Driving the Rivian will regularly remind you of the lessons Ford learned. That said, Ford's been building trucks for 100 years and hasn't really needed to develop things like a gear tunnel which has proven really very useful.

 

[pc500]

The only reason I sold the Pro was because I thought I had a deal with @Rob G to trade the R1T for his Lariat ER before he ghosted me. Otherwise I would've kept both, now I'm on the outside looking in.

In all seriousness, both trucks are awesome and I could write pages on which one is better or worse at which. The biggest factor is probably what you're (or I) am used to driving. Coming from a crossover? Rivian feels more at home. Coming from a full sized truck? You'll miss the interior space.

At the end of the day, if you do truck things - Ford's been crafting a vehicle that does just that for over 100 years. Driving the Rivian will regularly remind you of the lessons Ford learned. That said, Ford's been building trucks for 100 years and hasn't really needed to develop things like a gear tunnel which has proven really very useful.

It's tough, I have both reserved and can deliver either within 3 weeks.

I like the quad-motor, 0-60, and sportiness of the Rivian. Also, parkability.

I like the "truck utility" of the F150.

I own a 2009 ram 1500 and nissan leaf today.

I don't see myself selling the ram, due to too many long-range mountain west towing trips. However, it would be relegated to that.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

It's tough, I have both reserved and can deliver either within 3 weeks.

I like the quad-motor, 0-60, and sportiness of the Rivian. Also, parkability.

I like the "truck utility" of the F150.

I own a 2009 ram 1500 and nissan leaf today.

I don't see myself selling the ram, due to too many long-range mountain west towing trips. However, it would be relegated to that.

I’m not going to make it easier for you. I try to be fair on both forums so you can hop over to rivianforums and see I’ll say the same things..

0-60, you’ll get chuckles out of both. Drive EVs long enough and..ehThey’re fast but you’re not launching them all the time.

Quad motor, I haven’t had an off road situation where I needed it. I don’t do much off roading though. But you can tell the motors work hard and the truck is significantly sportier than the Lightning, but make no mistake. It’s not a sports car. It’s sporty, for a truck.

With sport comes harshness. Lightning gives you a luxurious ride, the Rivian will ride harsher than the Platinum, there will be more wind noise in the Rivian.

Parkability..haven’t noticed a difference between the two. The Ford is longer, but they’re similar in width and height.

Utility, don’t discount the Rivian, it’s handled everything I threw at it. Tows my 7000lb trailer, had a back blade plow on it. Lawn tractor fit fine in the bed. Ramps fit great in the gear tunnel. Even hauled an upright piano in it.

If you’re keeping the Ram, I’d probably say pass on the Lighting and get a Rivian. If you were selling the Ram, I’d probably say get a Lightning.

I was in the same situation and took delivery of both. It’s been 6 months and as you can see I still haven’t made up my mind completely.

 

[Replika]

The only reason I sold the Pro was because I thought I had a deal with @Rob G to trade the R1T for his Lariat ER before he ghosted me. Otherwise I would've kept both, now I'm on the outside looking in.

In all seriousness, both trucks are awesome and I could write pages on which one is better or worse at which. The biggest factor is probably what you're (or I) am used to driving. Coming from a crossover? Rivian feels more at home. Coming from a full sized truck? You'll miss the interior space.

At the end of the day, if you do truck things - Ford's been crafting a vehicle that does just that for over 100 years. Driving the Rivian will regularly remind you of the lessons Ford learned. That said, Ford's been building trucks for 100 years and hasn't really needed to develop things like a gear tunnel which has proven really very useful.

How does tax work on a private trade? I would be interested in entertaining that idea, if you're still looking.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

How does tax work on a private trade? I would be interested in entertaining that idea, if you're still looking.

It depends on your state. In my state there is no EV tax, so it would've been $0 for both of us.

In most states I believe they allow a trade allowance so you would have to carefully document the difference in trade amount and pay the difference (if any) and others will tax based on full property value. It's too vast to be able to say universally for your state.

 

[cvalue13]

If nothing major happens I can't see how it would drop faster than any other f150.

I see how something different from reliability could have a major impact.

The forward value of the Lightning depends on the all new BEV truck platform Ford will reveal late 2024.

Folks keep saying “second gen,” but that’s wrong: it will not be a “Lightning.” Like past iterations of the “Lightning,” today’s BEV truck is a limited production specialty offering for a limited duration. In this case, of Ford just stuffing battery guts into an ICE F150 platform. Discussing its ground-up BEV platform, Ford has been careful and consistent in not saying it will be an “F-150” but instead an “F-series” platform truck.

The reality is, despite the marketing angle, Ford has yet to produce a ground-up BEV truck. But Ford plans to reveal it’s first attempt in late 2024.

Which is all background to say: if Ford nails that vehicle, I’d expect the Lightning values to take a significant hit. If instead Ford reveals a dud, Lightnings may stick to normal depreciation for BEVs (which I understand to generally be worse than ICE).

That’s all before mentioning the threatened CyberTruck release.

For folks who don’t like aftermarket price risk, I’d say 2024 will be a rough year!

 

[jimfigler]

Hard to predict. Although inflation might be cooling, I don't expect battery prices to drop significantly in 3 years because demand for them is increasing. If the ICE supply chain gets back to normal we could see discounts again, but they are still going to be expensive.

Let's say the Lightning drops 30% in 3 years, which would be totally normal depreciation, Lariat ER with max tow is $89K now and basically comes with all of the features that Ford makes, let's assume that the price doesn't change because of competition and consumer weakness. The used value would be $62K.

So the question is, will buyers in 3 years find value in a loaded F-150, 131kWh truck at $62K compared to the equivalent used ICE Lariat at $54K ($77K new) or other EV trucks? It depends on:

- Will consumers have confidence in the batteries/drivetrain? So far, good EVs tend to hold their value because their drivetrains don't wear out like ICE vehicles.
- Will battery degradation be acceptable (In a Tesla I would expect less than 5% degradation if cared for. The Lightning is an unknown.)
- What are the alternatives and their costs? Silverado EV is going to be expensive. Cybertruck is an unknown. RAM EV....lol
- Gas/electric prices ($7 gas will change minds)
- State of the charger network (having Superchargers coming soon will be a big confidence boost)
- What are the EV rebates in 3 years?

So would a buyer rather have a used $62K Lariat ER in 3 years when a new Pro with the SR battery will be pretty close to the same price? Silverado EV WT3 is going to be $75K+ NOT with the 400 mile battery.

Probably the real wildcard is truck buyer perception and if EV trucks will overcome the (true) bias that they can't do all the truck things or if there is a large enough buyer base for trucks that have car-like utility plus a bed.

Yep those are sound thoughts. After the discounts and credits I paid just a hair under $41k completely out the door for my Pro. Maybe $39k in 3 years, that would be nice.

 

[alockbox]

As far as I can tell, we're at a point where the used market is commanding $75k for Lariat ER's, and the build year (2022 vs 2023) doesn't seem to matter.

This is essentially, a $15k drive off the lot depreciation. It has changd quite overnight, at the start of Febuary.

Questions:

1) Is this level of depreciation normal for a pickup (even a Gas F150), or is it worse?

2) Do we really expect these vehicles to hold 60% 3-year depreciation (IE: 60k value in 3 years)?

3) Or, will the market tank here and get far far worse?

4) Or will it get better once the straggling 2022 inventory is cleaned up as 2023 pricing volume will quickly outnumber?

It also seems even those that are selling are sitting, and having problems transacting. Maybe people are just asking too much, but the lack of market activity is also concerning.

The rivian on the other hand, is still transacting for MSRP.

I'm almost tempted to pass up my order and buy used. However realistically, I'll drive the thing for 3 years an trade it in. So, I don't want to totally get destroyed, anymore than a standard gas 4x4.

Thoughts?

I just went through this. Shop around is the answer! Working in a 80 mile radius, I got offers on my 22 SR with 4,500 miles and MSRP of 73,500 anywhere from 60k to 72k. Just depends on how hungry the dealer is, time of month, and how much they think they can profit on you on a purchase. If you’re buying something else, always stick to the rule of one thing at a time. Negotiate the price of the new car. Then negotiate the price of your trade in. Or the do the reverse. Then walk if need be.

 

[sotek2345]

Call me crazy but I bet the torque and acceleration gets nerfed for non-performance models in the next gen. That's normally kept as a luxury feature performance vehicles. Sure the Lariats and up are in the Luxury price range but still, Ford doesn't need all their EVs to perform as good as SVT / Raptor vehicles. I think they came out with it to make a splash and demonstrate how awesome EV tech is but 2nd gens will be more practical until you get to performance and luxury trims.

Maybe they'll do an F-150E which will be your basic F-150 in electric and then F-150L will be a SVT/Raptor type offering.

And I think both will be great! I'm just planning on enjoying mine for a long time. Picked up the 10/125k from Granger and hope that a good amount if DIYable by 2034, maybe even battery upgrades. It's already amazing the consumer tools that are available for interfacing with these computers, etc. Kids then may be able to reprogram MCUs like we installed subwoofers back in 2002.

I can understand that from a marketing perspective, but from an engineering one, if they cut back on the available power, they also need to decrease the tow rating (within margins). The only real way to keep the tow rating and also decrease acceleration is to limit it via software.

 

[pc500]

I just went through this. Shop around is the answer! Working in a 80 mile radius, I got offers on my 22 SR with 4,500 miles and MSRP of 73,500 anywhere from 60k to 72k. Just depends on how hungry the dealer is, time of month, and how much they think they can profit on you on a purchase. If you’re buying something else, always stick to the rule of one thing at a time. Negotiate the price of the new car. Then negotiate the price of your trade in. Or the do the reverse. Then walk if need be.

I can understand that from a marketing perspective, but from an engineering one, if they cut back on the available power, they also need to decrease the tow rating (within margins). The only real way to keep the tow rating and also decrease acceleration is to limit it via software.

They don't need that much power to tow. We've towed 11k with gutless diesels 10-20 years ago.

 

[sotek2345]

They don't need that much power to tow. We've towed 11k with gutless diesels 10-20 years ago.

My guess is those diesels were high torque but low HP, hurting you on acceleration. Electric motors like to spin, so you get high torque and high HP together.

It also isn't all about max power, you need to size the components large enough to not overheat at sustained load (more power and more torque).

 

[alockbox]

Call me crazy but I bet the torque and acceleration gets nerfed for non-performance models in the next gen. That's normally kept as a luxury feature performance vehicles. Sure the Lariats and up are in the Luxury price range but still, Ford doesn't need all their EVs to perform as good as SVT / Raptor vehicles. I think they came out with it to make a splash and demonstrate how awesome EV tech is but 2nd gens will be more practical until you get to performance and luxury trims.

Maybe they'll do an F-150E which will be your basic F-150 in electric and then F-150L will be a SVT/Raptor type offering.

And I think both will be great! I'm just planning on enjoying mine for a long time. Picked up the 10/125k from Granger and hope that a good amount if DIYable by 2034, maybe even battery upgrades. It's already amazing the consumer tools that are available for interfacing with these computers, etc. Kids then may be able to reprogram MCUs like we installed subwoofers back in 2002.

I agree with this. And Ford has already shown they can do this, without sacrificing the ability to tow. Whether you’re towing or not, when your range gets low you get reduced power and your range tends to exceed the GOM. I’ve had a couple driver where it was 20 miles out and I used 14, then as the range got low I could easily make it back using 7-8 with reduced power. It can be dynamically and instantly managed. Maybe they are just collecting more data.

 

[RVTim]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

This post illustrates the truth about what we've been seeing in EVs for years. I've owned 2 Volts, 1 Bolt, and now a Tesla. I don't think that until these things become completely mainstream and battery swap/repair is completely simple and modular, that we'll have low depreciation on the vehicles. The thing is, an EV is like buying a cell phone these days. There is a lot of innovation and new features, or "Rev 2 is just around the corner", and people will always want the latest and greatest unless the price is significantly lower for the older model. I don't plan to even keep a gas car anymore for more than 5 years, maybe more than 3. There's so much tech in the cars these days that the safe bet is always owning within the warranty period.

Besides that, you only get the $7,500 credit once, so expect that the original purchaser is going to automatically depreciate at least $7,500 as soon as they buy it. Nobody's gonna pay full price and NOT get the credit.

The only sad thing about the Lariat LR being in the $75K range is that if I could have bought one in that price, I may not have bought my Tesla. Ford's price increase(s) completely screwed them from fulfilling as many orders as they had the potential to fill. They'll need to bring that back down by production efficiencies if they want to see indefinite large volumes of orders. This is a sad fact, because as a whole, the world will benefit far more from large vehicles like trucks becoming EVs than it will from moving people driving economy cars into electric economy cars.

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