Jim Farley: F-150 Lightning Sold Out For 2-3 Years, Reservations Stopped at 200k

[beatle]

Ford has said they wanted to be producing at Lightning's at the rate of "150k per year" by mid 2023. I don't know if they have changed this outlook.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-f-150-lightning-production-150000-units.html

If that's the case, they should be able to blaze through the remaining reservations and then some with that kind of production capacity, especially if they're only converting half the reservations to orders. That flies in the face of Farley saying they're sold out for the next 2-3 years.

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[greenne]

If that's the case, they should be able to blaze through the remaining reservations and then some with that kind of production capacity, especially if they're only converting half the reservations to orders. That flies in the face of Farley saying they're sold out for the next 2-3 years.

Not exactly.

I think he meant 2-3 Model years... meaning 2022 model year, thru 2024 model year

I heard rumors of a 50% conversion rate, but I'm not so sure. Estimates were a 60-70% conversion rate and of that we have no idea how many canceled and how many just extended their reservation to 2023(probably because they had wanted a pro version that sold out). If they simply extended they are still factored into the production numbers on down the line.

So lets assume 60% of 200,000 = 120,000 orders

120,000 -15,000 (2022 production) = 105, 000 remaining (I'm being generous..2022 could be as low as 10,000)

If they start out 2023 at a 40,000/yr production rate(considering 20k for 2022 was 1/2 yr) = 20,000 for 1st half 2023

105,000 -20,000 = 85,000 remaining of initial reservations for order

2nd half of 2023 = 150k/yr rate = 75k for 2nd half of 2023

85,000 - 75,000k = 10,000 remain at end 2023 -->10,000 for MY2024

I realize there are some serious assumptions here as to how this may go down, but if Farley considers 2022 to be the "first year" it may very well take 2yrs+ part of a third(2022, 2023, start of 2024) to reach the end of reservations. That assumes a 60% rate and no delays in production or delays in getting the plant expanded. 6 month delay pushes this all to mid 2024.

2-3 model years seems reasonable given all the risk and unknowns, even with a massive increase in capacity. All this doesn't even account for the fact MY is usually preloaded 4-6months. Usually 2024 models would be available in fall 2023..so if the factory doesn't expand until say Jun-Jul-Aug 2023 they are already almost into MY2024 production(3rd model yr).

Just my .02c......

 

[rdr854]

If that's the case, they should be able to blaze through the remaining reservations and then some with that kind of production capacity, especially if they're only converting half the reservations to orders. That flies in the face of Farley saying they're sold out for the next 2-3 years.

Of course the other big issue out there is the supply chain given recent events. Apparently, Ford is not issuing any new allocations until late May. I do not know how this will impact the Lightning.

 

[beatle]

I've wondered the same thing. Will Ford prioritize the Lightning builds over ICE with their limited number of chips? I'd like to think so given the buzz that they can generate with the Lightnings out on the road in the hands of owners. Let's also be realistic about being their beta testers, and that feedback on performance will be important to Ford improving their EVs.

We're also only talking about a few thousand trucks vs. the several hundred thousand ICE F150s... I like to think Ford will throw us a bone and keep our builds as quick as possible, even at the expense of delaying an equivalent number of ICE F150s.

 

[vandy1981]

I've wondered the same thing. Will Ford prioritize the Lightning builds over ICE with their limited number of chips?

I would assume that they would try to prioritize the Lightning given its importance to the company.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

If anything is to be learned from the Lightning rollout, it’s that Ford will prioritize whatever is the most profitable in the immediate future. So, highly profitable ICE models will get prioritized. Hopefully I’m wrong!

 

[RLXXI]

Toyota will have their first SSD Battery in 2025 (hybrid car first) , Quantumscape will have the first SSD battery for VW group in 2024 (Full EV). The product is there now, but need to figure out how to keep down the cost and mass produce them.

If SSD battery can be a thing (I'm giving it a 70 percent of the chance it will happen before 2025) , they will have the same impact as SSD for the IT world (to me the biggest speed booster for all the IT devices)

SSD = Solid State Drive, as in computer storage. You mean SSB, Solid State Battery.

 

[hellb0y]

I believe with the way EV is going , the development will be much sooner than that. It's going to be revolutionary.

Btw we are going to have the same stable (Kona EV / F150L , killer non-Tesla combination IMO)

Kona EV is so underrated.

dang!!! We will - what colours did you choose?

I had always been the guy with dark colours but my Kona is bluesih/silver and my Lightning is iced blue silver lol

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I believe with the way EV is going , the development will be much sooner than that. It's going to be revolutionary.

Btw we are going to have the same stable (Kona EV / F150L , killer non-Tesla combination IMO)

Kona EV is so underrated.

SSD has been the holy grail for a long time. Yet my new Tesla has 18650's from 1994 because that's what actually works. Battery tech evolution is slooooow. Tesla's teething problems with their next gen batteries has delayed several models for two years now and counting, and looking like at least two more years. I predict they will default back to one of the older formats based on stumbles and production hurdles that they, Panasonic and LG are finding in tabless format. And we are still talking about standard cylindrical lithium ion being hard, much less a revolutionary format. Every time the breakthrough "happens", testing finds the fatal flaw, like 50% degradation after only two charges.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

If anything is to be learned from the Lightning rollout, it’s that Ford will prioritize whatever is the most profitable in the immediate future. So, highly profitable ICE models will get prioritized. Hopefully I’m wrong!

What's wrong with this strategy? Meet your best customers' needs first, the rest will follow. Keeping any aspirational product rare and at a premium is good marketing.

 

[beatle]

Ford's stock lit up with the Lightning and also with most every other EV-forward leaning announcement. They may have lower margins in the Lightning, but if there's anything a corporation tries to do, it's raise its stock price, and getting their new halo truck out will help that, provided it doesn't turn out to be a truck-sized Chevy Bolt.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

Just like thorium fusion reactors have been 5 years away for the past 25 years.

That doesn't exist and never will. Thorium is a breedable fissionable material (breed Thorium to produce Plutonium). They use various forms of hydrogen for fusion. (Protium - standard 1 proton 1 electron, Deuterium and Tritium). Sometimes they use Hydrogen + Boron for fusion, because the end product of hydrogen and boron is Helium and some isotopes.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

SSD won’t hit mainstream right away…likely 2030, assuming they can resolve issues that exist with the cells today

SSD = Solid State Drive, you mean SSB = Solid State Battery.

 

[Maquis]

That doesn't exist and never will. Thorium is a breedable fissionable material (breed Thorium to produce Plutonium). They use various forms of hydrogen for fusion. (Protium - standard 1 proton 1 electron, Deuterium and Tritium). Sometimes they use Hydrogen + Boron for fusion, because the end product of hydrogen and boron is Helium and some isotopes.

I know…..that’s the joke I was making about SS batteries! ?

 

[hturnerfamily]

Ford's stock lit up with the Lightning and also with most every other EV-forward leaning announcement. They may have lower margins in the Lightning, but if there's anything a corporation tries to do, it's raise its stock price, and getting their new halo truck out will help that, provided it doesn't turn out to be a truck-sized Chevy Bolt.

Yes, agreed, although I never really heard the details of GM's 'issues' with those batteries, though many Bolt owners loved the vehicle, itself. I've driven a Nissan LEAF 'old school' EV for several years, and my son, at college, even longer, and have never had a single issue with the battery, or really ANTHING with the vehicle - I actually thought of simply 'trading out' the existing 70 mile original 2015 battery with one of the newer version 120mile or more specs - but, ultimately, when the LIGHTNING was announced, all of those options and ideas fell away in about 1/2 second.
I recently sold the 2015, for several thousand MORE than I had paid for it several years ago. The new owner, an older gentleman, trying to 'enter' the EV world, is already a solar farm owner, and was excited to think about his 'off grid' power would provide all the the charging for the Leaf, for 'free' : )

I suspect the charging for the Lightning, in my normal 'daily' usage, will be about $25 monthly, with my local utility and their KWH rates. If I travel, tow the camper, etc., I imagine DC Fast Charging will come into play several times during a trip, and will cost $25 on it's own. We'll see.

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