So... How about them gas prices?

[vandy1981]

Not stopping national production and not buying from Russia will be a good start.

National crude oil production has steadily increased since 2008 and--believe it or not--continues to rise today.

Oil is sold in the international market and is produced in multiple countries. The USA has less ability to control the market than people think. We'd have a lot more control over the domestic market if we banned USA oil exports, but I don't think that would go over very well.

We do have a lot of control over domestic energy consumption, though. If our goal is to wean ourselves off of oil from anti-democratic countries, consumption/efficiency needs to be just as important as production in our discussions.

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[kevdog0710]

Since my response is to many different posts, I'll leave a stream of thoughts.

1) Anyone who thinks an EV is equally bad for the environment as ICE is either insane or easily manipulated.

2) Most people I know can't afford an EV. It won't be until used car prices come down and the second mass wave of EVs are out that average Americans can afford them on the second-hand market. The Leaf is in the ballpark of affordability, but that's really it. Most people don't like having only one option buying a car, plus the average American wants something larger.

3) I went on a 3k+ mile road trip a few weeks ago. I don't think I had a stop that lasted less than 20 minutes, I was in an ICE rental (Kia Sportage). By the time you pump gas, go to the bathroom, and grab a snack/drink; especially with a family in the car, it's almost always a 30 minute ordeal. The average person isn't driving 8 hours straight or stopping for 3 minutes three times on a 10 hour road trip. Are these guys going to the bathroom while pumping gas? If i had my Tesla, the trip would have been nearly identical in drive time, other than the reality you sometimes need to drive a few extra minutes off the highway to find the supercharger.

I dont think people have enough knowledge to weigh in on points number 1, which I pointed out in my post a few pages back. I think most people get pissy about the claim that the EV's are "clean" energy. The term probably needs to be "cleaner" energy. Im completely ignorant on the batteries the EV's use. Are the raw materials used in the manufacturing causing environmental harm through mining practices? Are the materials recyclable? Whats the cost of replacing the batteries, assuming this is something required during the lifespan of the vehicle?

 

[vandy1981]

We can google back and forth if you really want to...

Opinion | Imagine Virginia’s traffic jam but with only electric vehicles - The Washington Post

You're proving my point, LOL.

 

[RickLightning]

Are the raw materials used in the manufacturing causing environmental harm through mining practices? Are the materials recyclable?

Instead of recycling batteries, finding a second use for them (electrical grid or house storage) is high on the list.

https://www.advancedenergy.org/2021/11/16/electric-vehicle-battery-reuse-and-recycling/

 

[GregBC]

Yeah I mean I used to work in energy markets and actually think middle to long term freezing out Russia will bring down prices. Domestic production is way down since pre pandemic because producers have been shy to drill after they get crushed in the 2020 oil crash (remember at one point oil prices traded at negative prices due to excess supply). A lot of firms have been concerned opening wells up again that we will face another glut and wave of losses. Taking Russia out of Western Markets should give them some assurances on supply so hopefully they will ramp up production again and stabilize the market. Also people seem to ignore fact that energy markets are global. Russian oil isn’t disappearing all together it is just going to go into the countries that still trade with them (likely at a discount). That in turn reduces demand from other exporters into those markets and frees it up to go back into western markets. In the short run this creates a lot of volatility as there are existing contracts that need to move around but again middle to long run this stuff sorts itself out. If anything if US onshore comes back we are likely to see more overall oil in global markets which should help prices.
Edit: all this to say yes oil prices will probably go down but also we go through this on a relatively regular basis because they are mostly dictated by an unreliable cartel. Middle to long run I do agree with most people on here that the best solution is to develop a renewable energy market here that isn’t going to go crazy every time some despot does something stupid. Do you really want to put your faith in the mood of Putin or the Saudi Royal Family?

Very good points. The energy market is mind-boggling complex at first, 2nd and 3rd glance, lol. Eia.gov gives stats from last year on where oil is coming/going in the US. It’s interesting that the US is a “net exporter” (if I read the stats right) but still imports from Canada, Mexico, KSA, and yes…Russia.
Don’t forget the price of crude is (almost) no bearing on actual supply. I’d say it’s more based in fear and irrational thought than rational (maybe someone in the energy biz can correct me?)

If anyones interested in understanding how/why EV’s reduce CO2 emissions (or think of another way, reduce the contribution of CO2 emissions from transport sector), definitely check the web for “sources of electricity in US” - there are handy graphs that show what handles peak/changing loads in the US (hint: hydro and nat gas, predominantly; nuclear and coal provide almost completely base load). A nat gas power plant produces much less CO2 per KWh energy than an ICE, and theoretically it’s central location leaves the future potential for capturing it (I can dream, right?). Downside is Nox and Sox, currently.

As for the cost/impact of producing/disposing of batteries (a big argument), well… consider this: it’s far easier to clean up/ensure a few hundred sources (ie, mines, battery manu plants, etc) are clean and proper than to clean emissions from millions and millions of ICE vehicles. The mines for battery materials are currently nothing to be proud of, but neither are tar sands, fracking sites, and sites of oil accidents (subsea, shipping, train, etc). At least, to-date, I’ve never heard of anything close to approaching the Exxon Valdez or Deepsea Horizon accidents IRT EV material mining.

As for EV’s in general, hopefully everyone understands they will never fully replace ICE (at least not until a big change in tech occurs). Nothing can replace trucking, tractors, and similar vehicles for long-distance shipping. IMO other factors also need to change for those to have an affect.

On the subject of road trips, some YouTubers have done comparisons of ICE vs EV on longer road trips. As of last year, the Tesla was not that bad compared to the ICE! And if the guy had overnight charged the Tesla at his hotel, it would have come out on top! (The second EV was a Ford and it was slowed significantly by it’s charging network…). For me personally, I’ve decided an EV will be the next family/local car and a truck will be the next road trip/adventure car. Still too nervous of trying to get to backwoods BC on just a battery…for now!

Thanks all and let’s TRY to keep things light and civil, eh? Too much darkness in the world already; I come to these forums to help lighten and educate myself a bit, not cross swords

 

[Dadofjax]

You're proving my point, LOL.

Umm no it proves "your point" is hilarious...that long line is due to snow NOT gas. All those cars once the snow melted 24 hours later drove away and their occupants stayed warm thanks to their gas. IF those cars would have been EVs, their occupants would be out of charge and stuck for a few more days until enough tow trucks powered by gas towed them away.

Better luck next time.

 

[gtotco]

I dont think people have enough knowledge to weigh in on points number 1, which I pointed out in my post a few pages back. I think most people get pissy about the claim that the EV's are "clean" energy. The term probably needs to be "cleaner" energy. Im completely ignorant on the batteries the EV's use. Are the raw materials used in the manufacturing causing environmental harm through mining practices? Are the materials recyclable? Whats the cost of replacing the batteries, assuming this is something required during the lifespan of the vehicle?

I think "cleaner" is generally right. Depending on where you live EV's on the market today are anywhere from 50-100mpg in terms of carbon depending on the EV. If you have your own solar clearly this number can be even higher.

Here is a good tool for getting quick equivalents by zip code.
https://evtool.ucsusa.org/

I generally think we should be adding hybrids and plug in hybrids to get as many batteries into vehicles as possible right now, but that is just me.

Edit: also adding this fun comparison tool that is a bit wonkier: https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore

 

[Mr. Flibble]

So, yeah, switching over to all EVs tomorrow would bring major issues for buyers, infrastructure, supply, etc., but it's a false premise. Almost no one is suggesting an overnight switch, and I don't think *anyone* here has, so if we talk about a REALISTIC timeline, the issues are much more easily solved, and even some of the current issues are exaggerated, like EV cost and effective time to charge for normal use cases.

You raise some really good points. People forget history. When cars were first released to the masses, you were hard pressed to find a car amongst the horse carriages on the streets. 10 years later, you were hard pressed to find a horse carriage on the streets amongst the cars. And all that is with a much earlier industrial society than what we have today.

When those cars first came out, quite a large number of them were steam powered. And in fact, the Battery Electric cars outsold the gas cars by a factor of 4 to 1!

You know why the Battery cars outsold the Gas? The electric starter hadn't been invented yet. Gas cars were brutal to manually start.

As soon as the electric starter was invented, everyone wanted a gas car. The world changed really fast.

2030 isn't all that far away really. And when you look at what happened with cars in the past... well, we are probably about to see a similar big change coming.

 

[beatle]

I dont think people have enough knowledge to weigh in on points number 1, which I pointed out in my post a few pages back. I think most people get pissy about the claim that the EV's are "clean" energy. The term probably needs to be "cleaner" energy. Im completely ignorant on the batteries the EV's use. Are the raw materials used in the manufacturing causing environmental harm through mining practices? Are the materials recyclable? Whats the cost of replacing the batteries, assuming this is something required during the lifespan of the vehicle?

It's true, superfans of EVs often greenwash them to the point that they believe flowers grow in their silent wake. The batteries are not a free lunch and take a fair amount energy to produce. They do however break even from a carbon standpoint when compared to many ICE vehicles - even when the EV's electrons are sourced from fossil fuels.

Batteries are also expensive as hell, at least from my observations of owning a Tesla. They are a healthy 5 figure sum to replace that may total the vehicle. Some may last close to 200k, but some conk out much earlier. I suspect my car received a new battery before I bought it used with around 47k miles. My napkin math says it's reasonable to expect 150k out of a pack when used for a vehicle. Some companies dismantle and recycle the used packs into solar battery banks, but it's definitely a cottage industry and an end-of-life problem that is not yet solved.

My experience is narrowly-focused to the Model S which has been in production for a decade. The Model 3/Y allegedly has a "million mile" battery pack but those cars are just now beginning to creep close to 4 years old, so there is still little data on their projected lifespan.

 

[CoyoteJim]

It's true, superfans of EVs often greenwash them to the point that they believe flowers grow in their silent wake. The batteries are not a free lunch and take a fair amount energy to produce. They do however break even from a carbon standpoint when compared to many ICE vehicles - even when the EV's electrons are sourced from fossil fuels.

Batteries are also expensive as hell, at least from my observations of owning a Tesla. They are a healthy 5 figure sum to replace that may total the vehicle. Some may last close to 200k, but some conk out much earlier. I suspect my car received a new battery before I bought it used with around 47k miles. My napkin math says it's reasonable to expect 150k out of a pack when used for a vehicle. Some companies dismantle and recycle the used packs into solar battery banks, but it's definitely a cottage industry and an end-of-life problem that is not yet solved.

My experience is narrowly-focused to the Model S which has been in production for a decade. The Model 3/Y allegedly has a "million mile" battery pack but those cars are just now beginning to creep close to 4 years old, so there is still little data on their projected lifespan.

Here is a pretty good video that covers this issue:

 

[Regular150]

Well my mom and dad aren't driving very far, most days not at all. The oil prices are still effecting them hard. The oil and Natural gas byproduct called propane is what they heat their home with. The went from $200 dollars a month to heat their house is now over $500. So while an EV in the driveway might be great, oil and natural gas byproducts prices affect us more than you realize. Here are just 1/4;of the items that we all use that come from the Earth's oil. We do need to be oil independent for national security and without that, your funding countries run by really evil leaders.

 

[gtotco]

Yeah I mean I used to work in energy markets and actually think middle to long term freezing out Russia will bring down prices. Domestic production is way down since pre pandemic because producers have been shy to drill after they get crushed in the 2020 oil crash (remember at one point oil prices traded at negative prices due to excess supply). A lot of firms have been concerned opening wells up again that we will face another glut and wave of losses. Taking Russia out of Western Markets should give them some assurances on supply so hopefully they will ramp up production again and stabilize the market. Also people seem to ignore fact that energy markets are global. Russian oil isn’t disappearing all together it is just going to go into the countries that still trade with them (likely at a discount). That in turn reduces demand from other exporters into those markets and frees it up to go back into western markets. In the short run this creates a lot of volatility as there are existing contracts that need to move around but again middle to long run this stuff sorts itself out. If anything if US onshore comes back we are likely to see more overall oil in global markets which should help prices.
Edit: all this to say yes oil prices will probably go down but also we go through this on a relatively regular basis because they are mostly dictated by an unreliable cartel. Middle to long run I do agree with most people on here that the best solution is to develop a renewable energy market here that isn’t going to go crazy every time some despot does something stupid. Do you really want to put your faith in the mood of Putin or the Saudi Royal Family?

Threading this because just saw this on Bloomberg front page:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ick-up-the-pace-amid-russian-ban?srnd=premium

Shale producers set to increase production.

 

[LightningShow]

Im not mad about anything, you are the one going off the deep end about a negative comments about EVs.

Again, I have my name on the list for a new Lightning, I also understand it will be end of '23 or '24 before I ever see it though. There is nothing wrong with being critical of some people desperately trying to push ALL EVs before we are ready for them and why I have always maintained we need affordable EVs and ICE vehicles which includes cheaper energy and better infrastructure.

You're the one making stuff up to bolster your viewpoint, seems like you're much more emotionally invested here. I don't have anything to be mad about. I don't care whether people buy EVs or not. It's not even possible to go "All EVs" right now regardless of infrastructure. The grid will have to improve a little more quickly over the next 20 years to keep up but it's not much of a stretch. It can already manage up to about 50% EVs and we're at least 10 years from that many EVs being on the road.

 

[vandy1981]

The mines for battery materials are currently nothing to be proud of, but neither are tar sands, fracking sites, and sites of oil accidents (subsea, shipping, train, etc).

Don't forget the mini-Exxon Valdez that hides under every aging gas station in the USA!

 

[Vorador]

EVs are not ready for mainstream yet. It would be impossible to do a roadtrip in a non-tesla right now if only 10% of pickups on the road were EVs. EA stations have so few chargers, there would be long lines at every one. Tesla seems to be the only manufacturer that cares about DC fast charging, and their new stations are getting 40-50 chargers along major highways.

I'm all for choice. If people want to keep ICE vehicles, that is fine with me. I'm only interested in EVs now. We need to increase oil production in the US until more people start the transition to EVs or Hybrids. We also need to seriously look at how bad our charging infrastructure is right now.

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