Lightning Reservation Expectations

[Sdctcher]

As the reported October 26th opening date to order the 2022 F-150 Lightning approaches I wonder what I should expect to happen from now on.

I was disappointed today that this was the day the order window opened for the ICE F-150 but there is still no Build & Order on the Ford website. So a person who wanted to be first in line would have to go to a dealer and be at their mercy.

Can someone enlighten me on what has happened in the past on Mach-E and Bronco Reservations? Will Ford send emails other than the couple of marketing ones I have gotten to date. Will I need to plan on going in to my chosen dealer on the 26th and not have a chance to use the website before hand?

Just getting impatient I guess.

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[tbinmd]

Just google 2022 F150 order guide and download the order guide. You don't need the web configuration tool.

 

[shutterbug]

As the reported October 26th opening date to order the 2022 F-150 Lightning approaches I wonder what I should expect to happen from now on.

I was disappointed today that this was the day the order window opened for the ICE F-150 but there is still no Build & Order on the Ford website. So a person who wanted to be first in line would have to go to a dealer and be at their mercy.

Can someone enlighten me on what has happened in the past on Mach-E and Bronco Reservations? Will Ford send emails other than the couple of marketing ones I have gotten to date. Will I need to plan on going in to my chosen dealer on the 26th and not have a chance to use the website before hand?

With MME there really was nothing to configure. You selected the trim, color, battery size, number of motors at reservation. I think Select trim had a couple of package options, but I don't know if they were chosen at reservation or order. When you converted to order, you gave them your credit card so that the order deposit could be charged by the dealer and a week later Ford refunded the reservation deposit. With Lightning, the deposit went straight to the dealer, so I don't expect that deposit swap to happen.

We already know that Lightning orders will be somewhat more complex, since you you will have to chose color, battery, and a bunch of options, but you should be able to do that online. Or, if you go to the dealer, at least cycle through them and see what's available before converting with the dealer. I plan to do that online.

 

[Sdctcher]

Just google 2022 F150 order guide and download the order guide. You don't need the web configuration tool.

The configuration of the Lightning is different than the 2022 F150 order guide. And price is still unknown.

 

[Sdctcher]

Questions I Need to Answer Before Ordering My 2022 Lightning:

Is Maximum Towing Capacity a MUST?

The Limit with the Standard Battery is 7,000 Lbs.
To Increase to a Maximum of 10,000 Lbs. I MUST Add an Estimated $10,000 for the Extended Range Battery and the Maximum Tow Package. But Doing this May Increase the MSRP over the Proposed $12,500 Federal Credit Limit (Unknown if the MSRP Limit Will be $70,000 or $80,000 or $??? or if it is Even Passed Before I Have to Place an Order). Depending, this May Limit My Trim Selection to the XLT.

At Least 1/2 of the Reason I am Buying a Truck is to Tow my 8,000 Lb. Trailer About 5% of the Time.

It is Estimated the Published Range of the Bigger Battery is 300 Miles and that May Drop to 150 Miles While Towing.

If the Standard Battery Could Match my Trailer Weight the Mileage drops to 230/115 Miles. So for an Extra $10,000 I Would be Gaining Only a 35 Mile Increase in Range (Not Counting the Increased Power to Pull Hills).

How Important is the Proposed Federal Credit in My Decision?

At an MSRP of $80,000 the $12,500 Credit would be a 15.6% Discount.
At an MSRP of $70,000 the $12,500 Credit would be a 17.8% Discount.
At an MSRP of $60,000 the $12,500 Credit would be a 20.8% Discount.
As an Investment this is a No-Brainer Given the Current and Estimated Used Vehicle Market.

If I Buy Based on the Best Deal Rather Than What My Heart Wants and Hold for a Trade Later on for the 2nd Gen Lightning in 2025 Will My 2022 Hold Value?

After Factoring in the Ongoing Chip Shortages, the Lack of Product the Next 3 Years, and the Coming Used EV Truck Market My Guess Would be I Would Lose Very Little Value in 3 Years. Depending on Timing I Might Even Profit.

Many Believe that the 2nd Gen Lightning will be Equipped with a Vastly Upgraded Battery Pack with 50% to 100% Improvements in Range and Charge Time, and Maybe Cost.

If I Order on October 26th will my Choice of Trim be Irreversible or Can I Switch to a Higher or Lower Trim After the Tax Credit Legislation Settles Later in the Year?

The Federal Credit May Not Be Settled by that Time. Do I Choose Based on the Proposed $12,500 Credit at the Maximum $80,000/$70,000/$??? Limit or Do I Gamble on No Changes in the EV Credit and Hope for a $7,500 Credit for Next Year. I am Probably One of the Few Who has a Strategy to be able to Use the Entire $7,500 Tax Credit Based Upon My Estimate of Taxes Due in 2023.

Is Ford Holding Back the Official MSRPs Until they have a Guaranteed Government Decision on the Proposed Credit?

I Would Like to Think it Makes Marketing Sense to Adjust the Prices Downward to Give as Many Buyers as Possible Access to the Higher Trims with the EV Credit Even if the Profit Margin Suffers the First Model Year. As Time Goes By Unit Costs Will Plunge with Production to Recoup those Losses.

Finally, Will Ford Give Us Early Reservists a Heads Up and Access to Ordering Tools Prior to October 26th?

Or will Clueless Dealerships be Buried on the Morning of October 26th? I am a Buyer with Tens of Thousands of Dollars to Spend and if I am Confronted by Confusion and Unanswered Questions from Salesmen that Day I WILL BE PISSSED.

 

[metroshot]

Umm I am not basing my purchase on a proposed legislation that may or may not pass....

I am basing my purchase on the old $7500 tax credit (hoping) to claim the following year, $1500 CA CCFP discount at POS, $2000 CVRP rebate, $1000 Utility rebate, and my CA clean air HOV carpool exemption sticker!

 

[F150ROD]

Umm I am not basing my purchase on a proposed legislation that may or may not pass....

I am basing my purchase on the old $7500 tax credit (hoping) to claim the following year, $1500 CA CCFP discount at POS, $2000 CVRP rebate, $1000 Utility rebate, and my CA clean air HOV carpool exemption sticker!

Only thing is I think that SCE rebate was combined with the CCFP. Not sure if your utility Co.

As far as resale value, I mean, I wouldn’t expect it to hold its value if a new and improved Lightning is announced within 3 years. I would just expect that whatever battery improvements are made will be pases on to you unless they completely change the hardware.

 

[metroshot]

Only thing is I think that SCE rebate was combined with the CCFP. Not sure if your utility Co.

As far as resale value, I mean, I wouldn’t expect it to hold its value if a new and improved Lightning is announced within 3 years. I would just expect that whatever battery improvements are made will be pases on to you unless they completely change the hardware.

Looking at the program details, you may be correct since it's administered by SCE.

Although this program is statewide as a POS discount (reducing sales price) while the Utility rebate is post purchase - whether you are with PG&E, SCE, LADWP - might be a separate check.

Will ask SCE....

 

[DadBald]

Yeah, bud... nobody knows. I'm not banking on the tax credit at this time. If you're worried about the cap, get the cheaper one. 30mi extra range may get you to the next town if the charger you find is broken though. I'm going for the extended battery for lots of reasons.

 

[sotek2345]

Based on the Mach-e, you can change you order anytime until you have a scheduled build date

 

[adoublee]

Yeah, bud... nobody knows. I'm not banking on the tax credit at this time. If you're worried about the cap, get the cheaper one. 30mi extra range may get you to the next town if the charger you find is broken though. I'm going for the extended battery for lots of reasons.

Yes, that extra battery capacity is equal to about 3 Tesla Powerwalls of home energy storage for example.

 

[Sdctcher]

Totally Agree.

If the credit for the High Trim goes away I'll just become the Capitalist and go for the flip and put off my forever truck for three years.

Just for my info - Why is the site of the two new battery plants in KY a bad thing? They are just down the road from me and they will help a lot here with the KY economy. I understand the union thing but at least it is a foot in the door.

 

[Sdctcher]

Whoopsa!

Never mind!

Blue Oval is Tenn.

Tenn. is a very different state when it comes to labor.

 

[Losi]

I was disappointed by Ford’s announcement of Blue Oval City site of Gen2 Lightning asembly before the first production Gen1 Lightning rolled off the line.

As enthusiastic as I was initially, I’m leaning toward sitting out Gen1 and waiting for Gen2.

Like other forums members, I assume ordering beginning Oct 26 will be chaotic and will take some time to sort out; something I prefer to avoid.

Any EV tax benefits should be resolved by the time Gen2s are available. I hope to I can get something, but if not OK.

The order process will hopefully go smoothly.

All indications point that the Gen2 truck will be an improved version of Gen1.

I’m tempted to do the same (heck the gen2 might be available by the time I get to order); however, isn’t it possible that subsequent generations will be even harder to get? It’s a popular truck to begin with, if the gen1 is a huge success, you’ll have to be on your keyboard the nanosecond reservation/order banks open, or do I have this wrong. Even with more trucks coming to market, I don’t see how 180k/annually could possibly be enough to meet demand as popularity for EV’s grows. Perhaps I’m overestimating demand, but you look at reservations for EV’s across the board and they fill within minutes-it’s ridiculous.

 

[astricklin]

I’m tempted to do the same (heck the gen2 might be available by the time I get to order); however, isn’t it possible that subsequent generations will be even harder to get? It’s a popular truck to begin with, if the gen1 is a huge success, you’ll have to be on your keyboard the nanosecond reservation/order banks open, or do I have this wrong. Even with more trucks coming to market, I don’t see how 180k/annually could possibly be enough to meet demand as popularity for EV’s grows (maybe I’m overestimating demand, but even though reservations are not orders, you look at upcoming EV’s across the board and they fill within minutes-it’s ridiculous).

Demand is really unknown at this point. There's a lot of people who really want this truck but I feel like there's still a huge amount of truck owners and buyers that it is going to take a lot to convince them to go electric. People want their truck to be and do everything they could possibly imagine and even at 400+ miles of range there's still going to be limitations.
Also remember that right now, for traditional truck buyers, there's really only the Lightning. Soon there will be a ram and a Chevy Silverado to compete with it. I could bet that most people don't even know Rivian exists.

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