F-150 Lightning EV Tax Credits & Rebates - Discussions & Predictions

[Sdctcher]

Trying to factor 2022 available state and federal cash or tax credits into my decision to buy the Lightning F-150 has been like hiking knee deep through a swamp. It could be nothing (federal) or as low as $3,750 or as high as $12,500 in 2022. Based on my current cash and credit my truck could be anywhere from unaffordable to my being able to buy the premium trims.

I am not getting into adding state schemes because my state (KY) offers me nothing, but if I had stayed in California credits would have been much more available.

Under existing federal law which would be in effect if Congress passes nothing, Ford would qualify for a $7,500 tax credit (for those who would owe that much in taxes in 2023) or as low as $3,750 if Ford surpasses more than 200,000 total EV units sold by the time I buy. Up to June,, 2020, Ford had sold 123,000 EV units.

https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/

https://www.cjponyparts.com/resources/mustang-sales-throughout-years

In 2021 Ford sold 41,000 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E and GT units. Adding these together gives a total EV sales to date of 165,000, giving them about another 35,000 left before they exhaust the 200,000 allocation. That should cover any EV cars or Lightnings they might sell before I get my Lightning (my early reservation puts me about 11,000th in line). After the 200,000th the tax credit decreases by 50%.

It gets a lot harder if I try to guess what Congress does in the next month or so. Since they are being forced to cut back the proposed EV credit changes, my bet is that they punt until after the next election and just extend or increase the allocation to all EVs, and perhaps change it from a tax credit to a cash rebate.

There is just too much lobbying by manufacturers to do nothing.

If you are interested in the various current proposals see:

https://www.voltequity.com/post/the-clean-energy-for-america-act-and-its-potential-impact-on-tesla

I hope this post may educate members on a subject that is screwing up many of our purchasing plans and stressing us out. Perhaps someone may post a poll on how important EV credits are to our purchasing plans?

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[sotek2345]

You are right the where Congress is on any changes is a mess, but you are a little off on the existing credit. It stays at $7,500 for 2 quarters beyond when the manufacturer hits the 200,000 limit. So, if the credit stays as is, and you take delivery in 2022, you will get the full $7,500. If you have to wait until 2023 or 2024 (based on when you reserved and what dealer you picked), that gets much more questionable.

 

[TXLightning]

Your Mach E sales number is also way high, much closer to 20k.

https://insideevs.com/news/530606/us-ford-mache-sales-august2021/

 

[shutterbug]

In 2021 Ford sold 41,000 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E and GT units.

Where did you get that??? Through September Ford only sold 18,855 MMEs. Also need to count PHEVs they are selling plus E-Treansit.

 

[astricklin]

Where did you get that??? Through September Ford only sold 18,855 MMEs. Also need to count PHEVs they are selling plus E-Treansit.

I think the 41k number is globally,not just USA.

 

[jbirdzee]

What is up with the stalemate on the IRC-30D tracker anyways? They haven't updated it since June. Must be a worker shortage over there too..... <cough>

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

 

[greenne]

A couple points--

First, I strongly believe that if Congress doesn't fix the EV credit this election cycle its dead in the water and will stay as is. There is no indication it will be a topic the new congress will want to embrace post 2022 election. So where does that leave us? Well, there also is the real possibility that a slimmed down reconciliation bill (thanks to a certain Senator from WV) will either cut out, reduce, or alter consumer rebate/credit for EVs so who knows where we will end up.

Secondly, even if no cuts or changes are made to the bill(and the full $12,500 credit gets approved) there is the real possibility the higher level trims will NOT be eligible for the tax credit at all since at least some of the proposals cut out at $74-80k. So...that might impact some decisions, esp if you are on fence between an XLT and a Lariat. For example...a cloth XLT may be around ~$60k (with a $12.5 credit) so really ~$47.5k true cost, whereas a ~$79k Lariat may stay at $79k due to no tax credit. Thats a HUGE price difference....more than $30k upcharge for leather and few other comfort features(Bluecruise, moonroof, etc) I realize I'm throwing out hypothetical numbers, but you get my drift.

Its a lot to consider....that may be why Ford is dragging its feet on the pricing scheme..trying to see where Congress goes with this.

 

[metroshot]

You are right the where Congress is on any changes is a mess, but you are a little off on the existing credit. It stays at $7,500 for 2 quarters beyond when the manufacturer hits the 200,000 limit. So, if the credit stays as is, and you take delivery in 2022, you will get the full $7,500. If you have to wait until 2023 or 2024 (based on when you reserved and what dealer you picked), that gets much more questionable.

Whew, that is a relief!

I am counting on the $7500 tax credit to offset the Lightning purchase.

Now to see if Ford delivers in 2022 ....

 

[shutterbug]

I think the 41k number is globally,not just USA.

Global numbers are meaningless. US tax credit is based on US sales.

 

[greenne]

Global numbers are meaningless. US tax credit is based on US sales.

The last IRC-30D has Ford Electric sales at 134k thru 3/31/21. Hypothetically if Ford sells another 21k of MME in 2021 that puts them around 150-160k at year's end. (30k USA MMEs per year)

IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)

I'd *think* that Ford would not reach the 200k mark until the tail end of 2022(at the earliest) or perhaps even early 2023. Then 2 qtrs AFTER that 200k qtr for the full tax credit.

I think we're good for a bit longer....

 

[Pioneer74]

The last IRC-30D has Ford Electric sales at 134k thru 3/31/21. Hypothetically if Ford sells another 21k of MME in 2021 that puts them around 150-160k at year's end. (30k USA MMEs per year)

IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)

I'd *think* that Ford would not reach the 200k mark until the tail end of 2022(at the earliest) or perhaps even early 2023. Then 2 qtrs AFTER that 200k qtr for the full tax credit.

I think we're good for a bit longer....

Don't forget the plug-in Escape and E-Transit.

 

[greenne]

Don't forget the plug-in Escape and E-Transit.

True...also Lincoln Corsair//Aviator(grand touring?) would count towards Ford MoCo numbers.

I still think the earliest we'd reach 200k would be 3rd qtr 2021 or 4th qtr 2021. The PHEV Escape has been delayed until 2022 MY and not seeing huge numbers of those yet...

 

[Fordskeptic]

My deposit (after the reservation is converted to an order) will be refundable up until a VIN is assigned. Hopefully, by VIN time the EV tax rebate, credit, or what have you, will be sorted out.

 

[jbirdzee]

True...also Lincoln Corsair//Aviator(grand touring?) would count towards Ford MoCo numbers.

I still think the earliest we'd reach 200k would be 3rd qtr 2021 or 4th qtr 2021. The PHEV Escape has been delayed until 2022 MY and not seeing huge numbers of those yet...

Just an FYI - it looks like they updated the spreadsheet today, and the cumulative sales to the end of the 2nd quarter (they are still 1 quarter behind) are 141,834, so only another 7,639 for Q2 2021.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

Whew, that is a relief!

I am counting on the $7500 tax credit to offset the Lightning purchase.

Now to see if Ford delivers in 2022 ....

You have to have $7500 in tax liabilities to be eligible for that tax credit.

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