Everyone has now gotten an invite (3-30-23)

[bmwhitetx]

A little earlier than Ford thought, but Tim with Long McArthur Ford (@FordVideoGuy) announced yesterday that everyone left on his reservation list (97 I believe) got their invite Thursday.

So as we discussed, not getting a Pro for 40K and limited XLT has pushed a ton of folks out of the market (among other factors like price increases, interest rates, etc.).

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[Zprime29]

Makes you wonder if Ford is starting to sweat a little, all these billions in investment and a significant ramp up coming...but no one willing to foot the bill now. Could be some good deals on new Lightnings by the end of the year, after they've been sitting on lots for 3-4 months.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Makes you wonder if Ford is starting to sweat a little, all these billions in investment and a significant ramp up coming...but no one willing to foot the bill now. Could be some good deals on new Lightnings by the end of the year, after they've been sitting on lots for 3-4 months.

Worse yet you have Chevy and Tesla rolling out their trucks soon. Going to be a tough going for the Lightning until new platform is out. Hopefully then they will be able to decrease their manufacturing costs and build economy of scale. That transition will be tough. If they survive , someday the electric truck market will be in price parity with ICE.

 

[RickLightning]

200,000 reservations. How many turned into orders?

My guess - 40%.

 

[Tony Burgh]

Is Ford advertising the Lightning? I don’t watch much television anymore.

 

[vandy1981]

Makes you wonder if Ford is starting to sweat a little, all these billions in investment and a significant ramp up coming...but no one willing to foot the bill now. Could be some good deals on new Lightnings by the end of the year, after they've been sitting on lots for 3-4 months.

We will know they're concerned if they start dropping prices or adding incentives. We were in a bizarro world for two years where it was hard to buy any decent vehicle without a long wait. We are now returning to something closer to the status quo.

 

[greenne]

Makes you wonder if Ford is starting to sweat a little, all these billions in investment and a significant ramp up coming...but no one willing to foot the bill now. Could be some good deals on new Lightnings by the end of the year, after they've been sitting on lots for 3-4 months.

There is still a huge market out there of people who didn't have a reservation yet.

They will still probably sell every truck they can produce through 2025..gen 2.

 

[metroshot]

200,000 reservations. How many turned into orders?

My guess - 40%.

It's funny you mentioned that number!

I guessed back in 2022 that the conversion rate that I guessed at was 50% based on the Mustang Mach E conversions...

Would not be surprised if it's much lower since the Lightning price increases have hit more often than the MME.

 

[RickLightning]

There is still a huge market out there of people who didn't have a reservation yet.

They will still probably sell every truck they can produce through 2025..gen 2.

I don't think so.

There are Lightnings widely available right now, and they sit. There are 2022 demos and they sit. Yes, there will be a surge of interest, then people will see the price tag.

Edit - Cars.com has 1,056 of them.

 

[wighty]

Edit - Cars.com has 1,056 of them.

I was told elsewhere that the majority that show up on the car sites are reserved orders and not actually for sale.

 

[bmwhitetx]

The next few months will be interesting. Until last week, they had invited about 30% of the 200,000 reservations based on Tim's numbers, maybe a higher percentage in ZEV states. The take rate must have been low for them to open up the remaining 60-70% reservations all at once.

I think a good indication will be when they open up ordering for everyone. If it is pretty soon after April 24th then, yeah, they're hurting to fufill 2023 production. Then incentives, etc could follow. Then see how long the order banks stay open. Compare to the Maverick was open only for a week I think for 2023 production.

 

[swajames]

I was told elsewhere that the majority that show up on the car sites are reserved orders and not actually for sale.

Both my Bronco and my Lightning appeared on my dealer's website as available inventory because their site autopopulates with data when the vehicles ship, regardless of order type. If you'd called and asked, you would have been told both my vehicles weren't available. If you just looked on the dealer website, it appeared they were both available.

On another forum someone posted about a ton of Mach E availability, again based on website sleuthing. My dealer, the biggest volume dealer in Northern California, showed 9 or 10 or so as being available. Upon checking, all had window stickers that confirmed they were customer special order and not dealer orders. Sure, some of them may be rejected orders, but the more likely explanation remains that they were just awaiting customer pick up. You can't go by dealer websites or cars.com etc. They show cars that just aren't available.

 

[greenne]

I don't think so.

There are Lightnings widely available right now, and they sit. There are 2022 demos and they sit. Yes, there will be a surge of interest, then people will see the price tag.

Edit - Cars.com has 1,056 of them.

Most of those are SR..correct?

I mean we see a few canceled orders but most dealer stocks *seems* to be SR.

 

[uniblab]

Most of those are SR..correct?

I mean we see a few canceled orders but most dealer stocks *seems* to be SR.

Yes most are SRs. I did a deep dive on dealer inventory in February after not being able to order an XLT in wave 7. Came away with a 2022 XLT for MSRP, I had many to choose from. Of the ~1000 "in stock" Lightnings listed on cars.com and/or autotrader, 75% were not really in stock, 20% were lariats and the remaining 50 were XLTs and Platinums. I found two XLTs with the exact color/options I wanted. My 2022 XLT cost less than the current price of a Pro, included the $500 charging cord and has no chip-shortage deletions. I'm pretty happy, but I do regret missing out on a 2022 Rapid Red XLT ER with the tow technology package for MSRP of $75K. I was busy at work that day and it sold before I could go look at it. Of course now it's no longer possible to get an ER Lightning and qualify for the $7500 tax credit.

I noticed that today, three days after wave 8 opened, I'm still able to order an XLT. This tells me demand has softened significantly and I don't see that trend reversing. We could even have a glut of Lightnings available soon on dealer lots... who knows.

As for the SR battery, I'm pretty happy with it. I will not be doing any interstate driving with this truck, and probably not much towing either. It is a great point-and-squirt commuter/work truck that hauls whatever I put in the bed without complaint, just like my ICE F-150 did. I hate the charging port door and wish for more power on the highway but those are minor quibbles. I leave home every day with over 200 miles available which is plenty for me.

 

[Regular150]

The Boutique nature of the Dearborn line will allow Ford to produce high and lower volume with great flexibility. Sharing a paint shop and alot of parts with the ICE Model helps as well. I think Ford will make to demand and not stack them deep at the dealers lots and maintain proper inventory. This is a "Bridge" truck anyhow for the next 20 months until the T3 comes out so never intended to be ICE volume vehicle.

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