Everyone has now gotten an invite (3-30-23)

[TaxmanHog]

Most of those are SR..correct?

I mean we see a few canceled orders but most dealer stocks *seems* to be SR.

Yes, just about all the dealer stock that was ordered at the tail end of MY22 were SR models, I think this was to fulfil the production plan for the year looking at the issue from a resources and pricing point of view and knowing how the EV credits were going to play out through 2022 and early 2023.

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[greenne]

Yes, just about all the dealer stock that was ordered at the tail end of MY22 were SR models, I think this was to fulfil the production plan for the year looking at the issue from a resources and pricing point of view and knowing how the EV credits were going to play out through 2022 and early 2023.

My thought process here is that the ER is going to be a desirable model for those who do not have a reservation and are just shopping off the street.

 

[pseudonym]

I can confirm that Ford requires every customer order to be posted on the dealer website as if it were available stock. Recently, I called a dealer about a Maverick they had posted on their website and the salesperson seemed exasperated by the requirement because he was regularly fielding calls like mine for allocated stock that otherwise seemed available.

 

[F150ROD]

$100 to reserve, people trying to make profit when reservations opened. I’m not surprised.

Same thing will happen to the Cybertruck. People reserving 10 Cybertrucks for the clicks or again, trying to make profit.

 

[Ventorum94]

There is still a huge market

Most of those are SR..correct?

I mean we see a few canceled orders but most dealer stocks *seems* to be SR.

I’ve seen three Lightnings “for sale to any buyer” on my dealer’s lot, and all three have been ER, and all have sold within 2-4 weeks in inventory. One was new, two “preowned” with less than 1000mi (what the heck- tax credit harvesting?). Also, they had a mannequin Pro SR that was quietly sold after the lockout period.

 

[FordLightningMan]

$100 to reserve, people trying to make profit when reservations opened. I’m not surprised.

Same thing will happen to the Cybertruck. People reserving 10 Cybertrucks for the clicks or again, trying to make profit.

I imagine 95% of people can put down $100 and it will have no impact on their life, why not do it? I imagine well less than half those people can afford the Lightning.

As annoying as it is for when I likely don't convert, the Dodge $100 not being refundable after a certain time is really the right way to do it. These automakers can't get a good feel for interest based on the reservations alone due to people dropping out, I think a larger impediment needs to be there. Maybe that's non-refundable deposits 30 days after final price/specs leak? Maybe reservations should be $1k but refundable? As of today, the reservations don't really mean anything. I guess a $20MM interest free loan is helpful, but both of my suggestions generate that as well.

 

[F150ROD]

I imagine 95% of people can put down $100 and it will have no impact on their life, why not do it? I imagine well less than half those people can afford the Lightning.

As annoying as it is for when I likely don't convert, the Dodge $100 not being refundable after a certain time is really the right way to do it. These automakers can't get a good feel for interest based on the reservations alone due to people dropping out, I think a larger impediment needs to be there. Maybe that's non-refundable deposits 30 days after final price/specs leak? Maybe reservations should be $1k but refundable? As of today, the reservations don't really mean anything. I guess a $20MM interest free loan is helpful, but both of my suggestions generate that as well.

I think they should just get rid of Reservation period. Announce the model, send them to dealers, let dealers price gouge, open up order banks and have customers place their order either online or at the dealer of choice. Tesla has $250 non refundable, it’s time for others to move on to the Non-refundable model.

 

[KevinC]

I dont think they can really get away with making the deposit nonrefundable and still allow themselves the freedom to keep changing the price while you are locked in.

If they would have allowed a price lock back during reservation time in exchange for a non refundable deposit(probably quite a bit higher than 100$) it would have been a very different dynamic and given a more accurate view of true demand I think.

 

[GDN]

With the mix of trucks they make now this is going to be ugly. All reservation holders already offered an order, ramping to 150K, raising prices, raising interest rates still, competition coming. Prepare to rent your extra land for parking for Ford to store these trucks.

By late summer they will either severely cut production or they will be forced to make the trucks people want and can afford which is a Pro or XLT with an ER battery. '24 is going to be a long year as they are finally forced to show their new EV truck from the new factory.

 

[Zprime29]

XLT with ER is still too much. What people want is the ER battery and the $7500 tax credit. The bundle to get the ER battery is dumb.

 

[astricklin]

XLT with ER is still too much. What people want is the ER battery and the $7500 tax credit. The bundle to get the ER battery is dumb.

Requiring the $10k in options to get the ER is crap....it essentially makes the ER a 20k option. What that tells me is they didn't want to price the battery higher and are masking it's cost with the $10k options package because there's no way the option package has a cost anywhere near $10k.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

The cheap, non-refundable deposits have allowed me to be near the front of the line for multiple vehicles. I can weigh the pros and cons, see what competitors are doing, and either place my order or get a refund. I'm first in line at my local dealer for a Silverado EV. I will probably be skipping that one. Ram EV might be the first EV to make me consider selling my Pro.

The current reservation system is a horrible gauge for actual demand.

 

[bloominguez]

The cheap, non-refundable deposits have allowed me to be near the front of the line for multiple vehicles. I can weigh the pros and cons, see what competitors are doing, and either place my order or get a refund. I'm first in line at my local dealer for a Silverado EV. I will probably be skipping that one. Ram EV might be the first EV to make me consider selling my Pro.

The current reservation system is a horrible gauge for actual demand.

Completely agree. I played that game. When it became clear that...

• It was going to be difficult for companies to make cars at normal volumes during Covid;
• Inflation was occurring and price increases were inevitable (the money was being printed/devalued but prices hadn't commensurately risen yet); and
• It may be possible to get a car (or cars) at a price locked in at an earlier point in time, and therefore lower;

... I went ahead and placed reservations for FOUR different vehicles. I have since bought two and gotten my deposits refunded on the other two.

Worked out rather well. For the Bronco, for example, I got X-Plan pricing (Ford didn't honor X-Plan, but some dealers committed to that price anyway) plus $2475 in discounts in the form of price increases I didn't have to pay ("price protection"). Downside: I had to wait a while, but it worked out.

I wasn't sure I wanted a Lightning, but for $100 (refundable) I had a place in line if Ford held the line on pricing and if they hit a home run. If I had reserved earlier and gotten the early aggressive pricing, I might have bought a Lightning. Doesn't matter, that wasn't the only way to play the game.

Conclusions:

• 2021 and 2022 were *great* years to buy cars if you were super flexible. and could wait.
• If manufacturers keep doing this ridiculous "reservation" system (which isn't even really a true reservation system in Ford's case), I'll keep playing their game in the future.

 

[bmwhitetx]

XLT with ER is still too much. What people want is the ER battery and the $7500 tax credit. The bundle to get the ER battery is dumb.

And if Ford would just de-couple the FCSP and make it a $1300 option instead of including it in the base (like they did with the mobile charger) it would be under 80K. I wonder if they have a deal with Sunrun that requires it be included.

According to the IRA: MSRP excludes Destination, DIOs, and options that aren't attached to the vehicle.

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