Ford’s F-150 Lightning is falling behind Tesla’s Cybertruck in deepening EV crisis

[No Oil HaHa]

A 200 kWh battery pack (Silverado, I’m looking at you) doesn’t make sense for most people’s use cases, though of course it does for some.

There are a lot of pick up trucks used in California agriculture and most wouldn’t dream of making the switch with anything below a 200kw. Battery size is a much bigger complaint among my peers than any perceived EV hatred.

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[WaterboyNorCal]

There are a lot of pick up trucks used in California agriculture and most wouldn’t dream of making the switch with anything below a 200kw. Battery size is a much bigger complaint among my peers than any perceived EV hatred.

How many agriculture trucks are driving over 300 highway miles a day? Obviously there are edge cases, but I maintain that for most people who aren’t planning to tow an RV, a 200kWh battery is not necessary.

 

[No Oil HaHa]

How many agriculture trucks are driving over 300 highway miles a day? Obviously there are edge cases, but I maintain that for most people who aren’t planning to tow an RV, a 200kWh battery is not necessary.

I don’t have specific numbers but you’re communicating with someone who does. I’ve put 40k on my Lightning in 10 months and another 10k on my ICE F-150. There are too many PCAs, field men and chemical applicators who put 60k plus a year on a pickup. These people want a truck that they can get in the morning and not have to stop until the end of the day. They don’t have time in the middle of their harvest season to stop and charge or even worse, go out of their way to charge.
I have an ER and the closest I’ve come to the epa range is 270 miles.
I’m not trying to change your opinion but to point out that most truck owners don’t share it.
I’ve only come across 2 people who are partisan enough not to buy an EV truck because of what some blabbermouth on the radio says about them. Every other person says the battery isn’t big enough and they are waiting for better technology.

 

[RickKeen]

I don’t have specific numbers but you’re communicating with someone who does. I’ve put 40k on my Lightning in 10 months and another 10k on my ICE F-150. There are too many PCAs, field men and chemical applicators who put 60k plus a year on a pickup.

How many is that market, really?
If 200kWh battery was the answer, how come they are not all buying the GM with the big battery?

 

[No Oil HaHa]

How many is that market, really?
If 200kWh battery was the answer, how come they are not all buying the GM with the big battery?

Again, I’m not going to get into more specific numbers but a lot more than you assume. I work in the top 3 ag producing counties in America by gross receipts. They contribute over $24 billion dollars annually to the economy. It takes a lot of guys in a lot of trucks playing a part to bring all that produce to market.

As far as your second question. Who wants to buy a Chevy anyways. Haha! Seriously, I think price plays a role in that as well but I am running into more and more Silverados and Lightnings being purchased by large corporations in my travels. Time will tell…

 

[Maineiac12]

I got a Silverado EV as a rental while my F150 is in the shop. The range is great! But the rest of it sucks. Incredibly cheap interior, weird controls, lack of options in a vehicle that costs more than a loaded platinum F150.

Once GM brings the price down, it’ll be a more competitive offering.

 

[chl]

Back to the original premise, how things can change quickly in the EV truck market - here are some excerpts of a recent Wired story about the Cyberflop:

“Demand is off the charts!” Elon Musk crowed at the end of 2023, citing more than a million reservations for Tesla's polarizing polygonic pickup—so why has it still sold less than 50,000?

One of the staggering things the latest Cybertruck recall has revealed—other than Tesla’s use of the wrong glue—is that Elon Musk’s company appears to have sold 46,096 of these 7,000-pound electric pickups since customer deliveries began a little over 14 months ago. This is far fewer sales than Musk predicted for the Cybertruck just weeks before the rollout; he told investors that Tesla would soon sell 250,000 Cybertrucks per year.

On an earnings call a month before the November 2023 launch of the production vehicle, Musk boasted that Tesla had bagged “over 1 million” Cybertruck reservations and that “demand is off the charts.”

“Reservationists” initially paid $100 to join the queue, a refundable deposit later raised to $250. Car companies often open wait lists for models expected to outstrip supply, but most auto executives don’t expect that all of those who lodge deposits will follow through..."

If manufacturing capacity is any gauge of the sales numbers that Tesla was expecting, then the company must be sorely disappointed, because the Texas Gigafactory, where the Cybertruck is made, has the capacity to build more than 125,000 of the pickups per year. But, according to a Business Insider report from January, poor Cybertruck sales led to workers being taken off the “Cyber” production line and moved to a Model Y line.


“My predictions have a pretty good track record,” Musk told Tesla staff at an all-hands meeting on March 20, but none of those present dared to ask him whether he had predicted the anti-Musk backlash that is tanking Tesla sales around the world.

And for all Musk’s bluster at the staff meeting that Tesla is “by far the most innovative company in the car industry,” it really isn’t. Chinese automakers such as XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto are far ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving and other technologies.

Waymo is already offering driverless taxi rides. Nor is Tesla the only company plotting a future for humanoid robots. In a recent TechFirst podcast, author Peter Diamandis stated there were 15 other companies also in this race—and none of those have a leader as controversial or as divisive as Musk.

Grandiose predictions excite Tesla bulls who believe him when Musk says “I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth,” but back in the real world Musk is in charge of a car manufacturing company that can’t even spec the correct grade of panel glue.

Now on its eighth recall in the past 14 months—prior recalls involved failing windshield wipers, trapped accelerator pedals, and possible loss of power to the wheels—Musk’s polarizing polygonic pickups are in sales free fall. Month-over-month Cybertruck sales were down by 32.5 percent in February, according to estimates by Cox Automotive.

Forbes spoke with experts who estimate that Tesla sank at least $2 billion into the development of the Cybertruck. A traditional car might need 200,000 units per year to cover the research and development costs, Olav Sorenson, professor of strategy and sociology at UCLA and faculty director of its Price Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation, has estimated.

Sorenson calculates that the Cybertruck, with its stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction, might require as many as 300,000 sales per year.

Tesla sold merely 38,965 of the angular EVs last year, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. In January, Tesla introduced discounts to clear Cybertruck inventories with Foundation Series models still in stock, a variant Tesla was supposed to have stopped selling in October.

---whole article at: https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/

 

[Tony Burgh]

I don’t want to fall behind a CT. I might run over a body panel coming off the “truck”.

 

[Effonefiddy Lightning]

Back to the original premise, how things can change quickly in the EV truck market - here are some excerpts of a recent Wired story about the Cyberflop:

“Demand is off the charts!” Elon Musk crowed at the end of 2023, citing more than a million reservations for Tesla's polarizing polygonic pickup—so why has it still sold less than 50,000?

One of the staggering things the latest Cybertruck recall has revealed—other than Tesla’s use of the wrong glue—is that Elon Musk’s company appears to have sold 46,096 of these 7,000-pound electric pickups since customer deliveries began a little over 14 months ago. This is far fewer sales than Musk predicted for the Cybertruck just weeks before the rollout; he told investors that Tesla would soon sell 250,000 Cybertrucks per year.

On an earnings call a month before the November 2023 launch of the production vehicle, Musk boasted that Tesla had bagged “over 1 million” Cybertruck reservations and that “demand is off the charts.”

“Reservationists” initially paid $100 to join the queue, a refundable deposit later raised to $250. Car companies often open wait lists for models expected to outstrip supply, but most auto executives don’t expect that all of those who lodge deposits will follow through..."

If manufacturing capacity is any gauge of the sales numbers that Tesla was expecting, then the company must be sorely disappointed, because the Texas Gigafactory, where the Cybertruck is made, has the capacity to build more than 125,000 of the pickups per year. But, according to a Business Insider report from January, poor Cybertruck sales led to workers being taken off the “Cyber” production line and moved to a Model Y line.


“My predictions have a pretty good track record,” Musk told Tesla staff at an all-hands meeting on March 20, but none of those present dared to ask him whether he had predicted the anti-Musk backlash that is tanking Tesla sales around the world.

And for all Musk’s bluster at the staff meeting that Tesla is “by far the most innovative company in the car industry,” it really isn’t. Chinese automakers such as XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto are far ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving and other technologies.

Waymo is already offering driverless taxi rides. Nor is Tesla the only company plotting a future for humanoid robots. In a recent TechFirst podcast, author Peter Diamandis stated there were 15 other companies also in this race—and none of those have a leader as controversial or as divisive as Musk.

Grandiose predictions excite Tesla bulls who believe him when Musk says “I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth,” but back in the real world Musk is in charge of a car manufacturing company that can’t even spec the correct grade of panel glue.

Now on its eighth recall in the past 14 months—prior recalls involved failing windshield wipers, trapped accelerator pedals, and possible loss of power to the wheels—Musk’s polarizing polygonic pickups are in sales free fall. Month-over-month Cybertruck sales were down by 32.5 percent in February, according to estimates by Cox Automotive.

Forbes spoke with experts who estimate that Tesla sank at least $2 billion into the development of the Cybertruck. A traditional car might need 200,000 units per year to cover the research and development costs, Olav Sorenson, professor of strategy and sociology at UCLA and faculty director of its Price Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation, has estimated.

Sorenson calculates that the Cybertruck, with its stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction, might require as many as 300,000 sales per year.

Tesla sold merely 38,965 of the angular EVs last year, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. In January, Tesla introduced discounts to clear Cybertruck inventories with Foundation Series models still in stock, a variant Tesla was supposed to have stopped selling in October.

---whole article at: https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/

After all that, it still outsold the F150 lightning. Last year.

 

[Effonefiddy Lightning]

Back to the original premise, how things can change quickly in the EV truck market - here are some excerpts of a recent Wired story about the Cyberflop:

“Demand is off the charts!” Elon Musk crowed at the end of 2023, citing more than a million reservations for Tesla's polarizing polygonic pickup—so why has it still sold less than 50,000?

One of the staggering things the latest Cybertruck recall has revealed—other than Tesla’s use of the wrong glue—is that Elon Musk’s company appears to have sold 46,096 of these 7,000-pound electric pickups since customer deliveries began a little over 14 months ago. This is far fewer sales than Musk predicted for the Cybertruck just weeks before the rollout; he told investors that Tesla would soon sell 250,000 Cybertrucks per year.

On an earnings call a month before the November 2023 launch of the production vehicle, Musk boasted that Tesla had bagged “over 1 million” Cybertruck reservations and that “demand is off the charts.”

“Reservationists” initially paid $100 to join the queue, a refundable deposit later raised to $250. Car companies often open wait lists for models expected to outstrip supply, but most auto executives don’t expect that all of those who lodge deposits will follow through..."

If manufacturing capacity is any gauge of the sales numbers that Tesla was expecting, then the company must be sorely disappointed, because the Texas Gigafactory, where the Cybertruck is made, has the capacity to build more than 125,000 of the pickups per year. But, according to a Business Insider report from January, poor Cybertruck sales led to workers being taken off the “Cyber” production line and moved to a Model Y line.


“My predictions have a pretty good track record,” Musk told Tesla staff at an all-hands meeting on March 20, but none of those present dared to ask him whether he had predicted the anti-Musk backlash that is tanking Tesla sales around the world.

And for all Musk’s bluster at the staff meeting that Tesla is “by far the most innovative company in the car industry,” it really isn’t. Chinese automakers such as XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto are far ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving and other technologies.

Waymo is already offering driverless taxi rides. Nor is Tesla the only company plotting a future for humanoid robots. In a recent TechFirst podcast, author Peter Diamandis stated there were 15 other companies also in this race—and none of those have a leader as controversial or as divisive as Musk.

Grandiose predictions excite Tesla bulls who believe him when Musk says “I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth,” but back in the real world Musk is in charge of a car manufacturing company that can’t even spec the correct grade of panel glue.

Now on its eighth recall in the past 14 months—prior recalls involved failing windshield wipers, trapped accelerator pedals, and possible loss of power to the wheels—Musk’s polarizing polygonic pickups are in sales free fall. Month-over-month Cybertruck sales were down by 32.5 percent in February, according to estimates by Cox Automotive.

Forbes spoke with experts who estimate that Tesla sank at least $2 billion into the development of the Cybertruck. A traditional car might need 200,000 units per year to cover the research and development costs, Olav Sorenson, professor of strategy and sociology at UCLA and faculty director of its Price Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation, has estimated.

Sorenson calculates that the Cybertruck, with its stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction, might require as many as 300,000 sales per year.

Tesla sold merely 38,965 of the angular EVs last year, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. In January, Tesla introduced discounts to clear Cybertruck inventories with Foundation Series models still in stock, a variant Tesla was supposed to have stopped selling in October.

---whole article at: https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/

Also, the article cited recall issues. Well, the F-150, not just the Lightning, had the most recalls last year.

 

[StevenC56]

I'm really surprised some of you didn't/dont trade your Lightning in on a CT. Seems like you have more love for Tesler than Ford.

 

[flyct]

After all that, it still outsold the F150 lightning. Last year.

I feel the reason CT Outsells the Lightning is because they don't want a Pick Up truck. Cybertruck buyers want the unique look and the ability to stand out when driving the CT. Ford Lightning owners like me want t truck that does truck things like Home Depot runs etc.. I've NEVER seen an CT at HD. Personally I also don't want to stand out and drive a vehicle that shouts "HEY! LOOK AT ME"

Ford also doesn't do a good of marketing the Lightning. Every day I see TV advertisements for the GM EV Pickup trucks.

 

[flyct]

I'm really surprised some of you didn't/dont trade your Lightning in on a CT. Seems like you have more love for Tesler than Ford.

I know your posting wasn't targeted at me but let me answer as a Tesla and Lightning owner.

Tesla software is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Ford. Regardless of what I have read, my personal experience after owing 2 Tesla's for over 2 years each is that Tesla quality is excellent.

If Tesla had a truck that looked like a truck and had the same utility as the Lightning, I would have seriously considered trading my Lightning in on it (i.e. prior to Musk's recent craziness) Today I am embarrassed owning a Tesla.

 

[StevenC56]

I know your posting wasn't targeted at me but let me answer as a Tesla and Lightning owner.

Tesla software is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Ford. Regardless of what I have read, my personal experience after owing 2 Tesla's for over 2 years each is that Tesla quality is excellent.

If Tesla had a truck that looked like a truck and had the same utility as the Lightning, I would have seriously considered trading my Lightning in on it (i.e. prior to Musk's recent craziness) Today I am embarrassed owning a Tesla.

Ok. I get the software being better, but I know people with Teslas and I don't see that the materials and workmanship is equal. I see some compromise in that area. Not a huge amount but it's still visible. Time will tell as to to longevity of the most recent models. After seeing hot the CT is constructed it's almost comical. And Elon was never good, even before he became Trump's BFF and co-president. I'll happily put up with less advanced software/updates and hope that Ford improves in this area.

 

[ryun]

Today I am embarrassed owning a Tesla.

If it makes you feel any better, I hold a lot of scorn toward Elon Musk but never toward Tesla owners*. At the end of the day it's one fewer ICE on the road, and one more EV on the road. Besides, how would I know if the owner bought used or new, or even when they bought it? Too much effort to be outraged over a person's buying habits when it's Tesla's CEO that's gone coo-coo.

*Except for cybertruck owners. Not scorn per se, but with their panels falling off I'm definitely avoiding them while on the road lol

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