How long will our batteries last?

[Texas Dan]

In recent article on Insiders.com it was reported that historical 2.5% of battery packs had to be replaced every year but only 1% of newer batteries had to replaced every year. I didn’t find this information very useful so I decided to project those numbers to life expectancy. Life expectancy would be the years wherat least 50% of the battery packs are replaced.

Using the formula of 1.X^Y where X is the yearly percentage and Y is the number of years required to reach 50% I calculated it takes about 16 years for 2.5% per year to reach 50% and about 40 years for 1% per year to reach 50%. Of course it will take decades before anyone can validate these numbers. But it’s interesting to think that 40 years from now half of all the Lightnings on the road today will still be using their original battery packs.

So next time someone tells they are worried about the longevity of the Lightning battery packs tell them there is a 50-50 chance that the battery packs will last 40 years and will possibly outlast the person expressing the skepticism.

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[RickLightning]

I was parking in the loading zone of Menard's loading 20 bags of fertilizer. A woman said "nice truck". I said "thanks". Her husband/boyfriend said "how much is a new battery?"

I could have given him a statistical answer, but he was clearly a moron so I said "15, 20 years, so what do I care?".

He stared at me dumbfounded. Always remember:

 

[BabyDoc1012]

I also suspect/expect, by the time most of us need to swap a battery , the price of batteries will have come down by quite a bit. I’m also wondering if at that point we couldn’t upgrade to a newer/newest battery type. It is going to be interesting.

 

[DesertEV]

I was parking in the loading zone of Menard's loading 20 bags of fertilizer. A woman said "nice truck". I said "thanks". Her husband/boyfriend said "how much is a new battery?"

I could have given him a statistical answer, but he was clearly a moron so I said "15, 20 years, so what do I care?".

He stared at me dumbfounded. Always remember:

Lmao. It’s crazy the amount of questions you get driving an ev…especially a truck ev.

 

[Joe.....Montana]

Once a Lightning battery hits 70-80% SOH, how easily would it be to convert it to just a battery pack? Meaning, charge the pack with solar panels and then draw electricity for home from battery bank. Although having 70-80% of health on a vehicle would be a challenge, for home backup it wouldn't be too devastating.

 

[MickeyAO]

I was parking in the loading zone of Menard's loading 20 bags of fertilizer. A woman said "nice truck". I said "thanks". Her husband/boyfriend said "how much is a new battery?"

I could have given him a statistical answer, but he was clearly a moron so I said "15, 20 years, so what do I care?".

He stared at me dumbfounded. Always remember:

I always say "how much does it cost to replace your transmission?" Same thing, both warrantied for about the same length.

 

[flyct]

I always say "how much does it cost to replace your transmission?" Same thing, both warrantied for about the same length.

I like that answer.

The "people" that ask the question get their info from political news outlets where they believe the car will ignite just after the battery cost $46k to replace.

At local homeowners meeting at my rural cabin last weekend it was asked what the HOA is doing to plan on handling EV Battery fires.

 

[sotek2345]

I always say "how much does it cost to replace your transmission?" Same thing, both warrantied for about the same length.

Isn't for the Ford ICE powertrain warranty only good for 5 years / 60k? Our EV powertrain is covered much longer!

 

[Steven Walsh]

In recent article on Insiders.com it was reported that historical 2.5% of battery packs had to be replaced every year but only 1% of newer batteries had to replaced every year. I didn’t find this information very useful so I decided to project those numbers to life expectancy. Life expectancy would be the years wherat least 50% of the battery packs are replaced.

Using the formula of 1.X^Y where X is the yearly percentage and Y is the number of years required to reach 50% I calculated it takes about 16 years for 2.5% per year to reach 50% and about 40 years for 1% per year to reach 50%. Of course it will take decades before anyone can validate these numbers. But it’s interesting to think that 40 years from now half of all the Lightnings on the road today will still be using their original battery packs.

So next time someone tells they are worried about the longevity of the Lightning battery packs tell them there is a 50-50 chance that the battery packs will last 40 years and will possibly outlast the person expressing the skepticism.

when my Lightning gets to the point I need to replace it for whatever reason I will be taking the battery out and repurposing it as a Home Battery Backup. In fact, I bought one of the first Lightnings available because at that price less the tax credits it was cheaper per kWh battery capacity than Tesla Powewall batteries which I was going to buy. So I got the Lightning instead to serve as our home battery backup supply and also got a free truck to boot. I could justify leaving it parked in my garage indefinitely, and I do leave it in there if there is a chance the power is going to go out, but otherwise I enjoy driving my free truck.

 

[Calvin H-C]

I also suspect/expect, by the time most of us need to swap a battery , the price of batteries will have come down by quite a bit. I’m also wondering if at that point we couldn’t upgrade to a newer/newest battery type. It is going to be interesting.

Upgrading a battery when replacing has already occurred with Ford.

I've been driving a Focus Electric for 6.5 years and I've lost count of the number of times someone sent me the article about that guy that had to pay $25k to replace the battery in his FFE.

Truth is, there was an issue with pre-2017 batteries (28 kWh) where coolant would leak inside. Once this was known, people knew to look for dropping coolant level with nothing dripping under the vehicle. They would get it in and the battery would be replaced under warranty. Also, the "new" (usually rebuilt) would be a 2017/2018 battery (33 kWh).

 

[ciferguson37733]

I like that answer.

The "people" that ask the question get their info from political news outlets where they believe the car will ignite just after the battery cost $46k to replace.

At local homeowners meeting at my rural cabin last weekend it was asked what the HOA is doing to plan on handling EV Battery fires.

Yea - I get similar questions
I drive from Oregon Coast to Seattle weekly - had the lightning 6 months.

In those 6 months have seen three vehicle fires along I5. Latest was last Friday.

In all instances they were ICE fires.

 

[Zprime29]

At 70% capacity, for city commuting I'd still have 260 miles of range or 180ish freeway. That's plenty, enough to get me where I typically travel to with just an extra stop required. By that time I'll be retired so I likely won't care if it takes me an extra 30 minutes. No plans to swap the battery out unless I have to or there's a significant advantage to do so.

 

[SmoothJ]

Realistically speaking though... how many people on this forum will keep this truck long term (5+ years)? Batteries will get cheaper and better, and how quickly they will charge will also change. For myself, I usually think about getting an updated version right about the 2.5 year mark or until a new generation +1 year comes out. I know technology will improve, and the older versions won't get anymore updates. So I try to get ahead of some type of planned obsolescence.

 

[Joe.....Montana]

Realistically speaking though... how many people on this forum will keep this truck long term (5+ years)? Batteries will get cheaper and better, and how quickly they will charge will also change. For myself, I usually think about getting an updated version right about the 2.5 year mark or until a new generation +1 year comes out. I know technology will improve, and the older versions won't get anymore updates. So I try to get ahead of some type of planned obsolescence.

In 3-5 years it will be interesting to see the trade in/resale value of the MY22/23. I am a little worried the resale value won't be very good. Not that I necessarily purchase a vehicle based upon resale value, but for me, it does impact next vehicle purchase. I am not interested in eating significant depreciation.

 

[SmoothJ]

In 3-5 years it will be interesting to see the trade in/resale value of the MY22/23. I am a little worried the resale value won't be very good. Not that I necessarily purchase a vehicle based upon resale value, but for me, it does impact next vehicle purchase. I am not interested in eating significant depreciation.

We all know buying virtually any type of vehicle is a bad investment. With that said, based on what I am seeing on a new 2024 F150 Lightning Platinum lease of $92K @ 12K miles per year:

24 months: 47% Residual - $43,240.00
* * * *
60 months: 28% Residual - $25,760.00

Based on a new 2024 F150 ICE Platinum lease of $79k @ 12K miles per year:

24 months: 55% Residual - $43,615.00
* * * *
60 months: 41% Residual - $32,513.00

There are factors in this obviously, but this is what I am seeing/was told. This could also change year to year based on market conditions, and how ICEs and EVs are selling.

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