Are we losing the EV Revolution?

[FrunkMonk-e]

Do we want a revolution? Every day there is more competition for public charging. And as more people charge at home, electricity rates will go up. Governments will charge EV owners higher registration fees to recover lower tax revenues at the gas pumps. Free charging opportunities will disappear. Tax credits and other incentives will be eliminated. Limits will be placed on EVs using HOV lanes (or the HOV lanes will become meaningless because so many people with EVs can use them). And, finally, EV owners will be going up against other EV owners off the line at traffic lights.

This is the golden age of EV ownership. I'm in no rush to see it end. If these solid state batteries ever reach the rumored 600-800 mile ranges, the free market will heavily favor EVs. When they're commonplace, there will be no reason to incentivize ownership.

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[John Becker]

I also love this quote: "I bought this truck because I wanted this truck. There is no political reason. There is no 'saving the world' reason. There is no 'gas is dead' reason. It's just what I like. Period. I really don't care AT ALL if NO ONE else ever buys one. It has no bearing on me."
My wife however, hates EVs and has been calling me names like "woke libtard." I play along and tell her that my motivation is "virtue signaling."
The truth is that we are both very conservative Republicans. I like vehicles that are unique and quirky.
I don't anticipate ever using a DCFC. I'm too old for adventures.
My garages are now wired with three NEMA 14-50 outlets and awaiting my SR Lariat to arrive within the next few weeks.
I no longer drive far and 240 miles of range is much more than adequate for my needs.
I will also continue to own an ICE vehicle for the occasional road trips.
And speaking of unique and quirky, my next ICE vehicle might be one of these: https://morgan-motor.com/plus/plus-four/

 

[kstype]

The current

Yup. I like my Lightning because it's smooth, quiet, comfortable and fits my needs being a truck that finally has lockable storage besides the bed with a tonneau cover (front trunk). I don't operate under any illusion or belief that my truck is better for the environment or that I am somehow more virtuous for owning it.

I got it because I like it, simple as that.

Regardless of environmental science or policy the reality is the more the government pushes, the more people will resist. If it was all just incentives, that's great, but the more state and potentially the federal government punish or disincentivize buyers from purchasing ICE cars, the more pushback they will receive.

Early internal combustion engine cars were unreliable, inconvenient and dangerous, while steam engines were much more user friendly. But eventually technology improved, costs came down and the ICE won. I'd argue if the government had stepped in and attempted to influence the market it could easily have discouraged public adoption and delayed progress by several decades.

With EVs you can implement light incentives, but beyond that, let the free market decide and when EV tech is truly ready, it will take off.

This is essentially my exact take. I am not for government mandates - nor do I think they are needed - once people experience these I think they will prefer them on their own.

EV’s are not ideal for every use case - but I believe they do fit 90% or use cases and the lower maintenance and driving dynamics are phenomenal. I think the more people feel what these are like - free market forces will kick in and I believe that - combined with improvements in battery and charging technologies over the next 5-10 years will probably see BEV dominate in the long run.

 

[Maxx]

but they are just kidding themselves if they think they weren’t victims of social engineering

I agree with most what you said except getting a Pro with Raptor performance at almost a third of the price thanks to the tax incentives does not make me feel like a victim. Given a choice between my tax money subsidizing oil companies to keep doing the same or to car companies to change track, I will go with the second one. Interesting that we are doing both.

Simply put, this first generation of the Lightning is a failure. It was an early Ford cash grab to take advantage of all the early adopters. Give it another 8 years or so for the “revolution” to catch on, if it ever does.

I love my Pro despite all the software screwups. I think this is the last EV I could ever get with this many manual functions. Cybertruck does not seem to have spare tire and I bet is a lot more difficult to work on by third party after warranty is over. The 1st Gen lightning rush jobs regardless of Ford’s incentives, has a lot of benefits. Of course if my battery blows up with me in the truck before warranty is over, I will have to take all of this back.

I am not for government mandates - nor do I think they are needed - once people experience these I think they will prefer them on their own.

I admit government was not the leader here but I really wonder without government changing the calculus for car companies, if that statement would be as relevant “once people experience these”. GM did make EV1, but the math was not there for them to keep making them. Government saying you can’t sell EVs here in future tries to change that math so people that don’t have $100K to spend on a car, can experience these. I am under no illusion that there are as many failed policies as successful ones and it is a bit of crapshoot on what works but the intention of getting the market to the point that affordable practical EVs are option for everyone does need a little bit of push. Tesla benefited from that push too.

 

[lightspeed]

We are still near the start.

I'm sure that horse owners poo-poo-ed (literally and figuratively) cars for many years. The first car owners had to deal with unreliability, no dealer network, no tire stores, no gas stations, etc..

I'm not a climate alarmist, as selfish as the next guy, and somewhat libertarian, but it doesn't make you macho to not give a s--- about the impact of dumping tremendous amounts of carbon into the air for hundreds of years. Even if that doesn't worry you, fossil fuel is finite and when we start hitting the cheap extraction limits, prices will rocket up. And we are sending trillions of dollars to foreign countries. We are at around 421ppm CO2 today, but if we get up to 800-1000+ ppm, people will feel noticeable brain impairment. Currently, CO2 is rising more than 100ppm per 50 years, but the curve is also steepening as the world keeps burning more.

EVs are just one part of a path to a future that doesn't look like a Terminator movie.

 

[chl]

Many good points and questions.

I do not think the revolution is anywhere near over, but there have been many speed bumps in the process, re the Lightning: 1) COVID cutoff the supply chain and it took time to restart which 2) led Ford to jack the prices up 40% which 3) killed demand and 4) perhaps as many as 80% of reservations were unfulfilled or cancelled (mine was a cancellation) 5) and the lower cost Pro model was pretty much unavailable for retail purchase (I tried).

All that left a bad taste of disappointment and betrayal in the mouths of many potential Ford Lightning buyers, sadly.

I am still hoping to put in an order for a 2024 Lightning Pro come January.

In general it has been the manufacturers who have screwed things up.

In Dec. 2011, I bought a 2012 Nissan Leaf. Nissan had said they'd be making battery improvements and the range would be improving significantly. They didn't really follow through on the promise.

GM got the stupid idea for an EV that was really an ICE with a short range of EV travel, the ICE requiring HIGH-TEST gasoline!

Honda has the hybrid Insight and Toyota the Prius, but they didn't get on the EV bandwagon.

Only Tesla developed the EV to its potential. They were pricey at first, though and only higher income folks could afford them.

So far, NOBODY has given the consumers what they want and need: a full line of inexpensive, EV's with decent range. Where is the Henry Ford of EV's hiding?

Where is the $39,999 EV pickup that both Tesla and Ford and Chevy promised?
Where is the $20k-ish EV family car?

Whoever gets that right will dominate the market and the revolution will take off at last. They way Henry Ford did with the ICE Model-T.

How about an EV with a battery that can be swapped out in 15 minutes for a fully charged one, instead of having to wait for an 80% 30-45 minute charging? Like NIO has done in China?

Where are the brainiacs when you need them? Playing video games in their parents basements?

 

[chl]

Why don't EV pickup makers learn something about aerodynamics, light-weight but strong composite materials, etc., and really revolutionize the industry?

Group-think? Institutional inertia?

Go figure.

 

[Maxx]

Why don't EV pickup makers learn something about aerodynamics, light-weight but strong composite materials, etc., and really revolutionize the industry?

Group-think? Institutional inertia?

Go figure.

Pickup makers know everything they need to know. Battery makers are struggling mass producing the energy source pickup makers need.

 

[USA EV]

And, finally, EV owners will be going up against other EV owners off the line at traffic lights.

The most important thing!

 

[Dakovich]

I think the build out, simplification, and improved reliability of the charging network is more important to the revolution than anything.

 

[shutterbug]

Under $30K BEV ($45K won’t cut it).

That already exists with Bolt

Cheap power (under 10 cents/KWh) OR way cheaper DCFC costs.

Under $0.10/kWh is unlikely for many places around the country. Cheaper DCFC is also unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Charge from home garage (inexpensive if you can use existing 240V outlets. But amp draw can compromise a 200 amp “standard” residential panel).

That only works for single family homes. There needs to be a solution for apartments and condos. My mother's condo has a pair 6kW Blink chargers that charges $1.00/hr for up to 6 hours. That's not too bad.

300+ mile range.

We are already there, but for well over 90%, it's not necessary.

 

[Hammick]

Not trying to take this thread political but I truly believe certain politicians are trying to kill the EV industry because of their ties big to oil. Now whether that means political contributions from big oil or constituents that favor big oil it really doesn't matter. The end result is the same. There are a lot of politicians trying to kill the EV industry based on lies, misinformation and ignorance.

 

[GunRack]

I went all electric in 2013 and it took me a few years after to realize that I'll never buy another gas car. Others will eventually join when it makes sense for them. Charging still has a long ways to go. Hoping NACS will help

 

[Snakebitten]

I personally am impressed with how far electric vehicles for private citizens have come so quickly.
A decade ago it was barely even fringe. Extremely rare to ever see one at an intersection.

Now they barely turn a head and are routine to see daily all around.

But nothing says progress louder to me than that I drive one now daily. I'm a old geezer living in oil town. If I have one then momentum is real.

As for the current sluggishness in sales, everywhere I look I see ICE inventory stacking as well. I'm not so sure it's an EV slowdown for EV sake.

I do wish more manufacturers would catch up to the model 3 LFP value equation. I'd love a vehicle that I find appealing to be able to match that price and level of technology.

 

[Jim Lewis]

My oldest daughter drove a Bolt EUV as a rental car and liked it so much she decided to buy one. Hers cost $28K and it would have been closer to $21K if she'd had a tax liability to claim the tax credit. She has free level 2 charging at work, at the zoo, the city botanical garden, and other kids play centers where she takes her kid regularly. She's paid ~nothing to charge her vehicle since she got it this past summer.

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