How long will our batteries last?

[Texas Dan]

My 2023 Lightning is good enough. I have been chasing down the EV rabbit hole for ten years going from the next best EV to the next best EV. I paid a ridiculous amount of money for my Lightning and as soon as I get it paid off I’m going to retire, never to buy another vehicle of any kind.

It’s good to know that the Lightning battery will probably outlast me. Even if I’m still around 40 years from now I won’t be driving. Hopefully when I’m gone my grandkids will be able to get a couple of more decades out of the Lightning.

Even though I paid a ridiculous amount of money for my Lightning, if it lasts as long as I’m hoping for, it could easily end up being the least expensive vehicle I’ve ever owned. I’m looking forward to driving into my twilight years and the adventures I’ve got planned in my Lightning.

Sponsored

 

[Danface]

We have or have had 3 Priuses (hmmm Priua maybe??) all of which have gone over 200K with the original battery. From the begining eveyone loved to point out how much it would cost to get one replaced and it's been $0 so far.

 

[invertedspear]

I always say "how much does it cost to replace your transmission?" Same thing, both warrantied for about the same length.

Yeah, but it's such a different landscape, and not just because they are different components. Today, if I need to replace a battery out of warranty, where would I even be able to buy one. IIRC you were seeking a totaled lightning a few months ago for your company to study the batteries because you can't buy one except at a dealer parts department at insane prices.

My TJ just had to have a new tranny added. I was able to take it to my reliable transmission specialist. He did it for about $3k cause he was able to source an upgraded rebuilt part, and he specializes in transmissions and differentials, so he has the contacts, and his workmanship is high quality.

Tesla's have been on the market a lot longer, maybe it's not fair to count them, but in this case I'm going to and say that EVs have been popular for about 12 years now. We have yet to see EV battery specialist shops pop up. How much longer till we do and we start seeing "renewed" batteries on the market being sold by EV battery specialist mechanics? Until we see them, we're all king of gambling on the unknown.

 

[sotek2345]

In 3-5 years it will be interesting to see the trade in/resale value of the MY22/23. I am a little worried the resale value won't be very good. Not that I necessarily purchase a vehicle based upon resale value, but for me, it does impact next vehicle purchase. I am not interested in eating significant depreciation.

Yeah, I was in the same boat and was lining up an early/launch "T3" as a replacement for my Lightning, assuming I liked it but depreciation is eating my lunch and I won't likely be able to swing that.

It's OK though. Happy for all of those that got discounted trucks!

 

[Texas Dan]

Yeah, but it's such a different landscape, and not just because they are different components. Today, if I need to replace a battery out of warranty, where would I even be able to buy one. IIRC you were seeking a totaled lightning a few months ago for your company to study the batteries because you can't buy one except at a dealer parts department at insane prices.

My TJ just had to have a new tranny added. I was able to take it to my reliable transmission specialist. He did it for about $3k cause he was able to source an upgraded rebuilt part, and he specializes in transmissions and differentials, so he has the contacts, and his workmanship is high quality.

Tesla's have been on the market a lot longer, maybe it's not fair to count them, but in this case I'm going to and say that EVs have been popular for about 12 years now. We have yet to see EV battery specialist shops pop up. How much longer till we do and we start seeing "renewed" batteries on the market being sold by EV battery specialist mechanics? Until we see them, we're all king of gambling on the unknown.

Unbelievable! We just showed you that the Lightning battery has life expectancy of 40 years and you fall on the old nonsense argument that replacement batteries are too expensive. There are so many things wrong with your postulations like you don’t even replace packs, you replace modules and just about every Lightning battery pack is still under warranty.

It’s too soon to even consider a Lightning replacement battery and when you do need one the cost should be easily justifiable.

 

[invertedspear]

Unbelievable! We just showed you that the Lightning battery has life expectancy of 40 years and you fall on the old nonsense argument that replacement batteries are too expensive. There are so many things wrong with your postulations like you don’t even replace packs, you replace modules and just about every Lightning battery pack is still under warranty.

It’s too soon to even consider a Lightning replacement battery and when you do need one the cost should be easily justifiable.

Maybe I wasn't making my point clear. So let me restate what I was trying to say. As long as the dealer service center is the only place to have our batteries, or modules of our battery repaired or replaced, it will always be over priced. Until there are 3rd party shops or the ability to make the fix in our driveways, the dealer service center is going to be inflating the cost. Even comparing our battery to an engine or transmission of an ICE vehicle is pointless because you have great mechanics at independent shops to fix those. It's the competition from independent shops that will make battery repair and replacement affordable. Until we see them we're at the mercy of "your local Ford dealer", and their service advisors who have a track history of ripping us off.

 

[RickLightning]

Yeah, I was in the same boat and was lining up an early/launch "T3" as a replacement for my Lightning, assuming I liked it but depreciation is eating my lunch and I won't likely be able to swing that.

It's OK though. Happy for all of those that got discounted trucks!

T3 launch has been moved out for you so the depreciation hit seems more reasonable...

I was mentally all in for T3. Now, with the HVBJB failures on the Mach-E, and the battery array failures on the Lightning, and the inability to roll our BC 1.4 nine months after saying it would be, I believe Ford has shown they are currently having major EV issues. I wouldn't recommend either vehicle to anyone unwillingly to accept 2 to 4 service visits per year.

 

[Texas Dan]

Maybe I wasn't making my point clear. So let me restate what I was trying to say. As long as the dealer service center is the only place to have our batteries, or modules of our battery repaired or replaced, it will always be over priced. Until there are 3rd party shops or the ability to make the fix in our driveways, the dealer service center is going to be inflating the cost. Even comparing our battery to an engine or transmission of an ICE vehicle is pointless because you have great mechanics at independent shops to fix those. It's the competition from independent shops that will make battery repair and replacement affordable. Until we see them we're at the mercy of "your local Ford dealer", and their service advisors who have a track history of ripping us off.

It sounds like you’re talking about Tesla , not Ford. I have a full Lightning service manual and it has full instructions on how to test, tear down and repair the battery pack. I could go to the Ford dealer today and buy battery modules or I could order them online.

There are very, very smart mechanics out there that are not affiliated with dealerships. One of main reasons I bought a Ford and not a Tesla is because I knew that Ford service departments would hold you hostage the way Tesla service departments do. It’s still way too soon to worry about such things but battery pack replacement/repair on the Lightning is really not that much of a mystery and I think the process really won’t be that painful when it’s needed.

 

[climateguy]

I saw an ad the other day for a 2012 Leaf. $500.

 

[Maxx]

We have or have had 3 Priuses (hmmm Priua maybe??) all of which have gone over 200K with the original battery. From the begining eveyone loved to point out how much it would cost to get one replaced and it's been $0 so far.

May I ask how long it took to hit 200K for each?

I saw an ad the other day for a 2012 Leaf. $500.

Almost anything with lithium ion battery with that kind of age loses most of its value. Not necessarily because of battery but because the technology for most devices that use that kinda battery improves considerably in a decade. And sometimes because manufacturer did not make it easy to replace the battery or stopped supporting it software wise.

The hardware in Lightning is mighty useful so it will be interesting to see how smart folks will keep it running in 12 years. And given the options at that time, if they can justify doing that. I think currently each module cost $4k-$5K. In 12 years if you are changing modules you may want change all 9. If the new battery tech at the time is compatible, chances are it will cost the same just better (More energy dense or reliable). Curious how many people have electric shaver older than 12 years.

 

[potato]

Your number appears to be based on the assumption that degradation is linear over time. I'm not sure that is correct. It is more likely a curve of some sort.

Early indications are pretty good for battery lifetime (I believe that; I bought one) but I don't think we can make any projections about 40 years down the road.

 

[Effonefiddy Lightning]

I also suspect/expect, by the time most of us need to swap a battery , the price of batteries will have come down by quite a bit. I’m also wondering if at that point we couldn’t upgrade to a newer/newest battery type. It is going to be interesting.

I'm also hoping the aftermarket will start making battery packs or even an extender pack.

 

[Texas Dan]

Your number appears to be based on the assumption that degradation is linear over time. I'm not sure that is correct. It is more likely a curve of some sort.

Early indications are pretty good for battery lifetime (I believe that; I bought one) but I don't think we can make any projections about 40 years down the road.

The 2.5% was validated with 13 years of data and there is plenty of reason to expect current batteries to do much better than that. Remember that 70% of EVs sold in 2011 are still on the road and still have the original battery packs, that in itself is a pretty astounding statistic. 40 years is a pretty reasonable estimate if the information in that article is correct but only time will tell.

BTW, I should also point out that the formula I used was exponential, not linear, assuming replacement rates would increase over time. A linear progression would give a 50 year life expectancy. There are a lot of different ways to project life expectancy but the best way would be formula fitting based on real data.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

[

I was parking in the loading zone of Menard's loading 20 bags of fertilizer. A woman said "nice truck". I said "thanks". Her husband/boyfriend said "how much is a new battery?"

I could have given him a statistical answer, but he was clearly a moron so I said "15, 20 years, so what do I care?".

He stared at me dumbfounded. Always remember:

I always respond the same:

“About the same as an engine and transmission replacement from what I hear, but I’ve got a couple nearing 200,000 miles and haven’t needed to replace one yet so I’m not exactly sure”

I find that response usually sparks a more genuine conversation about the EV.

 

[Danface]

May I ask how long it took to hit 200K for each?



Almost anything with lithium ion battery with that kind of age loses most of its value. Not necessarily because of battery but because the technology for most devices that use that kinda battery improves considerably in a decade. And sometimes because manufacturer did not make it easy to replace the battery or stopped supporting it software wise.

The hardware in Lightning is mighty useful so it will be interesting to see how smart folks will keep it running in 12 years. And given the options at that time, if they can justify doing that. I think currently each module cost $4k-$5K. In 12 years if you are changing modules you may want change all 9. If the new battery tech at the time is compatible, chances are it will cost the same just better (More energy dense or reliable). Curious how many people have electric shaver older than 12 years.

I bought a new one in Feb, 2009 and we averaged about 20K per year for 9.5 years or so until it was hit and totaled (no one was hurt). We replaced that with a 2010 with about 88K on it and we've added about 110K over the last 5 or so years and I bought a 2012 Prius C in 2016 with about 60K on it and it has about another 130K on it most of which as come over the last 4-5 years because my kid had it for her last year of college and the "running around with friends years" immediately after graduation. Long story short, we averaged about 20K a year on each of them with the 2010 now very idle and the 2012 still being driven a lot.

Sponsored