Will it make it?

[Smash&Grab]

Howdy All! New to the forum. Currently drive a Tesla model y. Longing for a Lightning Flash ER w heat pump,.
My question to all those who have an er and have long drives.
My typical Monday (127 miles from upstate to long island- mon and weds 52ish times a year)
Leave house at 4:45 am preconditioned.
Drive the Taconic parkway apx 45 mins at 62-63 mph (the stick are like vipers on the Taco).
On interstate 84 and 684- sticking to 70 mph (In the slow lane)
various parkways to work.
Arrival at 7:00- plug into a 6.2 kw level 2 charger- BUT I leave work in 6 hours +/-
Unit says apx 39 kw sent.
reverse- usually the day has warmed up.
My question is will the Flash with the Er battery, proper preconditioning, not driving like I stole it, normal 70 degree heat (has heat pump)
Will it make it in sub freezing temps with some to spare (would like to have above 10% when I get home)
Thoughts?
will the heat pump help? I drive 45k a year so do I need to worry year two, three?
My worry is the winter.
thanks much!
Its such a solid vehicle- it would so great to run one.

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[B177y]

Start from home at 100% with a departure time set with the cabin temp set to where you like it. Shouldn't be an issue.

I'd do the same with the return trip on your work charger as far as setting the departure time and cabin temp.

The slower 6.2kw work charger should add plenty to get you back home well above 10% and is enough juice to effectively precondition cab and battery.

 

[RickLightning]

254 miles. 2024 would be 131kWh battery, 2025 will be 122kWh battery.

You will be adding 39kW less 10% loss = 35kW.

254/166 = 1.53 miles per kWh to arrive home with zero.
254/157 = 1.62

In the worst winter weather, driving snow and wind, you won't make that IMO. Make sure you have a DC fast charger on your route that you can hit on the way home if necessary, or if the work chargers are all full or down.

In normal winter driving, you will be fine, provided you are careful with the heater usage. You'll learn what the vehicle does, and how to stay on top of it and know if you'll have a problem so you can stop by your safety fast charger if necessary.

I know my Mach-E and Lightning very well. When a 20mph headwind hits in 7 degree weather, your 70mph is now 90mph. Efficiency drops to 1.3 or so.

 

[Henry Ford]

(131kWh+39kWh)×1.5m/kWh=255 mile range.

If I'm reading your original post correctly, round trip is 254 miles. You'd need to get at least 1.6m/kWh to arrive home with 10%. This would work most of the time. If it were me I'd need to have a good backup plan for when it doesn't work. Strong winds and cold temperatures are your enemy.

Edit: @RickLightning came to the same conclusion I did which illustrates this is a math problem as much as a logistics problem.

 

[Henry Ford]

I know my Mach-E and Lightning very well. When a 20mph headwind hits in 7 degree weather, your 70mph is now 90mph. Efficiency drops to 1.3 or so.

For a round trip, a 20mph tail wind makes 70mph into 50mph. Problem solved, right? Nope! Drag increases at the square of airspeed which means the difference in drag between 50mph and 70mph is much less than 70mph and 90mph. In practical terms just know that a headwind hurts a lot more than a tailwind helps.

 

[RickLightning]

For a round trip, a 20mph tail wind makes 70mph into 50mph. Problem solved, right? Nope! Drag increases at the square of airspeed which means the difference in drag between 50mph and 70mph is much less than 70mph and 90mph. In practical terms just know that a headwind hurts a lot more than a tailwind helps.

On our recent trip out west, we had a headwind and on the return a tailwind, which turned into wind blasting us from the side and blowing snow...

With the headwind, efficiency dropped to 1.2 (13 degrees, and started with cold battery). We slowed and made it fine.

On the return, we hit 2.1 with the tailwind, driving 75 to 78mph. When the wind went away, we dropped to 1.7.

 

[TMND]

I can tell you when it’s -10 to -20 f out driving on perfectly flat roads I get .9 to 1.1 mi./kWh. Usually driving five under the speed limit. In those conditions, though I find I use about 30% of the battery to travel 50 miles.

 

[21st Century Truck]

To add... as with any brand EV, when in doubt about remaining range under unusual conditions, the best option is to slow down as much as necessary to make it to the end point. Getting there later is much better than running dry.

Unusual here means unexpected, worse than usual, unplanned factors present, etc.

 

[flyct]

As a Model Y and Lightning owner here’s my opinion. Unfortunately the Lightning ER will not meet your needs.

If you had the ability to replenish all the kWhs used while driving south, when you were parked in Long Island for the 6 hours, I would feel different. But adding 35 kwhs (after loosing 10% of 39 kWhs delivered) is not enough to get you home with any reserve in an inefficient Lightning. Lightning takes 40% longer on same L2 charger to replenish battery current used on identical trip.

I drive a 127 mile one way trip routinely in Florida. At 60 mph or lower the vehicles use the same percentage of battery on this trip. Over 60 mph the Lightning‘s parasitic drag causes significant reduction in efficiency compared to the Tesla.

I’m very familiar with your location. I lived in Utica and before that was I lived in Long Island. Traveling between the two locations in the winter is the reason we moved to Florida.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Worst conditions, no it won't make it, as stated by others, plan for a DCFC session on the return leg, welcome to the Ford family if you make the plunge.

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